Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"This is geopolitical insanity"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:54⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for the first video of the day. He explains that it will be the only video until later in the day as he has a very busy day.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:54-03:16⏩
Jonathan provides an overview of the Russian losses from the Ukrainian General Staff, making it clear that he is not sure how accurate they are. He notes that personnel losses of 1,190 are lower than usual, while tank losses remain high at 14, and questions whether the Russians are running out of infantry fighting vehicles and using tanks in an APC role. He notes the high number of vehicles and fuel tanks destroyed (136) and the high number of artillery systems taken out by Ukraine (63), including multiple launch rocket systems and 6 anti-aircraft warfare systems. Jonathan wonders if the increase in Ukrainian attacks on Russian artillery, MLRS and anti-aircraft systems could be due to new drones.
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Dell's Charts Analysis
🎦 03:16-05:35⏩
Jonathan reviews Dell's charts which visualise the Russian equipment losses, commenting that there are some record 7-day and 30-day rolling averages for drone losses. He notes that Ukraine has had a good couple of weeks in terms of destroying Russian anti-aircraft warfare systems, multiple launch rocket systems and artillery, and speculates that this could be because the Ukrainians are now able to attack further behind the lines.
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Drone Warfare
🎦 05:35-06:37⏩
Jonathan cites a Forbes article by David Handling which quotes Shashank Joshi as saying that tactical drones are responsible for roughly two-thirds of Russian losses and are twice as effective as every other weapon in the Ukrainian arsenal, despite not being officially in use at the start of the war. Jonathan expresses his amazement at this. He comments that drones are the new "gods of war" and have taken over from artillery.
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Ukraine's 2S22 Bohdana Howitzers
🎦 06:37-08:25⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian artillery units armed with the domestically produced 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer are now operational in northern Ukraine. He notes that Ukraine is producing up to 20 per month and questions how the Bohdana compares to other self-propelled guns such as the Caesar, Archer, and Panzerhaubitze 2000, suggesting that it may not be as good as those systems but is still useful if it can fire effectively and can be produced in large numbers.
Fire at Lebedev Institute in Moscow
🎦 08:25-09:38⏩
Jonathan reports that a fire has broken out at the Lebedev Institute of Precision Mechanics and Computer Engineering in Moscow. The fire, which started the previous night, covered 1,500 square metres. There were explosions at the site, and the roof has collapsed, but there are no reported casualties. Jonathan notes that the institute is involved in Russia's defence sector and speculates that the fire, which he refers to as "sabotage", is good news for Ukraine.
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Cargo Ship Sinking in Sea of Azov
🎦 09:38-10:09⏩
Jonathan reports that a cargo ship carrying 3,000 tonnes of corn has sunk in the Sea of Azov. The ship, the Pavel Grabovsky, was en route from Rostov to Samson in Turkey when it began sinking on the 16th of February near the Azov port. Jonathan notes that the crew did not send a distress signal and comments on how cold the Sea of Azov is at this time of year.
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Distance Strikes
🎦 10:09-12:14⏩
Jonathan reports that there have not been many reports of Ukrainian strikes over the past couple of nights. He states that Ukraine has claimed that Russia fired 14 missiles, including ballistic missiles, KH-101 and KH-55 missiles, and that while some drones were shot down, most got through. Jonathan says that there are reports of damage in Kharkiv, Sumy, Odesa and Kyiv, but believes that most of this was caused by falling drone debris rather than missile strikes. He expresses concern about the lack of detail on missile strikes from Ukrainian officials and believes that Russia probably did a lot of damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure, referring to it as a confirmation of Russia's "peace plan".
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Aftermath of the attack on Kherson
🎦 12:14-12:42⏩
Jonathan shows footage of a guided bomb smashing into a residential building in Kherson. Five people are injured, including 13 year old twins. Their mother is trapped under the rubble. Jonathan expresses his horror at what has happened, saying "that hits home. I've got 14 year old twins...bastards".
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Romania approves downing of Russian drones and missiles
🎦 12:42-13:28⏩
Romania has passed a law allowing the downing of Russian drones and missiles over its airspace. The law expands airspace control, permitting the interception of unauthorised drones and missiles, even during peacetime, and allows NATO forces to assist under collective defence treaties. Jonathan expresses his support for the law, which he, along with pro-Ukrainian analysts, have been requesting for a long time, and hopes that Romania will shoot down some of the drones and missiles.
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Kazakhstan seeks discussions with Ukraine over drone strike
🎦 13:28-14:44⏩
Jonathan reports that Kazakhstan is seeking discussions with Ukraine after Ukrainian drones attacked a gas pumping station on the CPC pipeline, which runs from Kazakhstan through Russia. The attack, which took place a couple of days ago, has impacted the flow of oil through the pipeline. 80% of Kazakh oil exports rely on the CPC pipeline, with a major Chevron oil field, Tengiz, reliant on it for exports. It is estimated that the damage will take two months to repair. Jonathan speculates whether this gives Ukraine some leverage over Chevron - perhaps Chevron could lobby Donald Trump for air defence missiles for Ukraine to prevent further attacks.
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Frontline Update: Prokrosk
🎦 14:44-15:30⏩
Jonathan provides a frontline update for the Prokrosk sector, reporting that according to pro-Ukrainian analyst Prokrosk, Ukraine has regained control of Pyshchany and made significant gains at Dachenska. He explains that the Russians have poor defensive positions in this area and are struggling to dig in due to the frozen ground and temperatures of -15 degrees. Jonathan believes that the Russian advance in this area has overstretched their supply lines and says that the troops are poorly manned, exhausted and experiencing very difficult weather conditions.
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Russia sending injured soldiers from hospital to battle
🎦 15:30-16:05⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russians are taking injured soldiers directly from hospital to the front lines due to a shortage of troops. He shows a video of trucks driving up to hospital doors and forcing injured soldiers inside before driving them away, presumably back to the front.
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Ukrainian opposition supports Zelensky
🎦 16:05-17:14⏩
Jonathan refutes claims made by Donald Trump, JD Vance and others that Ukrainian President Zelensky is a dictator because he has postponed elections. He refers to a Signal message from Sergei Solenni which states that Ukrainian opposition leaders, Petro Poroshenko and Yulia Tymoshenko, who hate Zelensky, have publicly supported his decision to prolong his term until after the war, stating that elections are currently impossible.
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Trump's stance on Zelensky and Ukraine
🎦 17:14-19:32⏩
Jonathan reports that according to the Economist, Trump sees Zelensky as an obstacle and may cut military aid to Ukraine, intelligence access, and Starlink if he wins the next election. He expresses concern at this, adding that Trump also wants to lift sanctions on Russia and force Ukraine into a deal over its natural resources that would benefit the US rather than Ukraine. Jonathan believes that this shows Trump aligning himself with Russia.
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European coalition forming in response to Trump
🎦 19:32-23:28⏩
Jonathan reports that a new "coalition of the willing" is forming in Europe in response to Trump's pro-Russian stance. The group, which met in Paris, is comprised of the leaders of France, the UK, Poland, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark, and the heads of NATO, the European Commission, and the European Council. The group has since expanded to 19 nations, including Canada. The group, which wants to avoid a situation like the Munich Agreement, is a sign of how quickly things are changing and underscores the failure of existing EU formats to adequately address the crisis. Jonathan notes that Turkish involvement in the talks will be crucial for their success, as they could act as an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine. However, Turkey has not been invited to join the group, perhaps because they are seen as a potential mediator.
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EU Response and Defence Spending
🎦 23:28-25:16⏩
Jonathan reports that the EU is considering creating a European Defence Fund totalling $700 billion and may release €96 billion of unspent COVID funds to boost defence. This comes at a time when the US administration is planning to cut defence spending.
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US cuts to spending and support for Ukraine
🎦 25:16-27:16⏩
Jonathan expresses his concern and disbelief at the US's decision to cut defence spending at a time when Russia and China are increasing theirs. The US is also planning to reduce support for Ukraine, withdraw from NATO, reduce funding to the CIA, counter-terrorism and counter-intelligence, and cut funding to departments responsible for monitoring foreign influence in US elections and for freezing Russian assets. At the same time, Russia is opening a broadcast centre in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, to increase their influence in Africa. The US has also cut funding to USAID, Radio Free Europe and Voice of America. Jonathan states that these actions constitute "geopolitical insanity".
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Wrap up
🎦 27:16-27:37⏩
Jonathan ends by reiterating his support for the Daily Star's front page, which called Trump "Putin's poodle", and signs off.
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