Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News

"I have a joy of humanity at the moment, whilst also understanding the juxtaposition of the lack of humanity coming from the other side of the border."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-05:35⏩

• Welcome: Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics for a Ukraine War news update, the first of four parts.
• Date: He clarifies the date is the 22nd of January 2025, almost the 23rd in Ukraine.
• Apology for Late Content: Jonathan apologises for the lack of content the previous day due to an "insanely busy day".
• Car for Ukraine Team: He mentions spending the day with Ivan from "Car for Ukraine" and his team, describing them as wonderful, moral and decent people.
• Lviv Military Cemetery Visit: The team visited the military cemetery in Lviv, which was a very emotional experience for Jonathan.
• Emotional Moment: He recounts a particularly moving moment watching a woman grieving at a grave, unsure if she was a mother or wife, which deeply affected him.
• Planned Emotional Video: Jonathan considered whether to publish a raw, emotional video recorded at the cemetery, reflecting on the experience and the unfairness of the war. He intends to release it, believing in its value to communicate the human cost of the conflict despite potential criticism.
• Normal News to Follow: He states that after this long introduction, he will proceed with the regular news update.

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Ukrainian General Staff Figures: 1,950 Russian Personnel Losses

🎦 05:35-06:40⏩

• Russian Losses: Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day, with the usual caveats regarding their accuracy.
• Staggering Personnel Losses: Personnel losses are described as "staggering" at 1,950, nearly 2,000, a significant increase.
• Tank Losses Above Average: Tank losses are also above the daily average at 11, continuing a trend of high tank losses for the past few days.
• AFV Losses Below Average: Troop-carrying Armoured Fighting Vehicle (AFV) losses are below the daily average at eight, which is noted as "interesting" and "particularly low".
• Artillery and Vehicle Losses: Artillery system losses are 60, and vehicle and fuel tank losses are "phenomenal" at 155.
• Special Equipment Loss: One piece of "special equipment" was also lost by the Russians.
• Overall High Losses: Jonathan summarises the Russian losses as "really high".

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Andrew Perpetua Russian Losses: Parity Approaching

🎦 06:40-07:56⏩

• Andrew Perpetua Stats: Jonathan transitions to Andrew Perpetua's statistics for the 20th of January, noting that stats for the 21st may also be available.
• Loss Parity: Andrew Perpetua's stats indicate that overall losses are approaching parity, with Russians losing slightly more than Ukrainians.
• Russian Combat Asset Losses Higher: Ukrainian combat asset losses are fewer than Russian losses, which is considered "good news" for Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Artillery Losses: Ukrainian artillery losses include a few Western systems (M777 and M119), but are described as "not too bad" in terms of damaged, destroyed, and abandoned equipment.
• No Ukrainian Tank Losses: Significantly, there are no Ukrainian tank losses reported in Perpetua's data.
• Ukrainian IFV and APC Losses: Ukrainian losses include five IFVs (including a Bradley - damaged) and six APCs (mostly M113s, plus a French VAB).
• Ukrainian IMV Losses: Four IMVs (Humvees and a UK-provided Husky) are listed as losses.
• Minor Ukrainian Losses Overall: Jonathan concludes that Ukrainian losses are "nothing too severe".

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Andrew Perpetua Russian Losses: Valuable Equipment Lost

🎦 07:56-10:25⏩

• Russian Air Defence Losses: Russia lost two TOR M2 air defence systems, described as a loss that "is going to hurt them somewhat".
• Russian Artillery Losses: Russian artillery losses include a destroyed Tornado-G Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS). Jonathan clarifies that while part of the Tornado family, it is not the HIMARS equivalent. He explains the Tornado-G is a more recent MLRS than older Soviet systems, dating from 2014 onwards.
• Other Russian Equipment Losses: Russian losses also include a couple of D30 howitzers, around a dozen tanks (mostly older models like T-72s), and a significant number of Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs), estimated at 15-20 (BMP-1s, 2s, 3s), along with a couple of BTRs and half a dozen AFVs.
• Heavy Russian Losses: Jonathan describes this as a "fairly heavy list of losses".
• More Valuable Russian Kit Lost: He concludes that the Russians are losing more valuable equipment than the Ukrainians, based on Andrew Perpetua's data for the 20th of January, in addition to 126 personnel losses reported by Perpetua.

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Andrew Perpetua Russian Losses: Massive Losses on 21st January

🎦 10:25-11:13⏩

• 21st January Losses - Huge: Jonathan moves to Andrew Perpetua's data for the 21st of January, noting "huge set of losses for the Russians". These losses represent "yesterday's losses".
• Ukrainian Losses on 21st: Ukrainian losses on the 21st include a Command and Control system M577 (a "fairly valuable piece of kit"), four artillery pieces, and a couple of tanks ("nothing too valuable").
• Other Ukrainian Losses: Ukraine also lost a captured YPR-765 (Dutch version of M113), a destroyed BMP, a couple of APCs and a few MRAPs.
• Minimal Ukrainian Losses on 21st: Jonathan concludes that Ukrainian losses on the 21st are "nothing particularly to worry about".

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Speculation: High BMP-3 Losses Suggest Depleted Russian Stockpiles

🎦 11:13-13:30⏩

• Heavy Russian Equipment Losses Continue: Jonathan reiterates that Russians are losing "a tremendous amount of equipment".
• BMP-3 Losses Significant: He highlights the loss of BMP-3s, noting around 10 IFVs lost on the 21st were mainly BMP-3s, and there were also significant BMP-3 losses on the 20th.
• BMP-3 Production: Jonathan points out that BMP-3s are the only new IFVs Russia is currently producing.
• Speculation on Stockpile Depletion: He speculates that the high losses of BMP-3s may indicate Russia is struggling to access older equipment stockpiles and is now losing newly produced vehicles. He suggests Russia may be using unarmoured vehicles to replace IFVs due to shortages, or that they are relying on newly built BMP-3s because older stocks are depleted.
• Pure Speculation: Jonathan emphasizes this is "pure speculation" and to take it with "a massive pinch of salt".
• Tea Break: He jokes about needing Yorkshire Tea after "honey vodkas and dark Lviv beers" and needing to sleep as it's midnight in Ukraine.
• BMP-3 Loss Significance Question: He concludes by reiterating his question about the significance of higher than expected BMP-3 losses.
• BMP Refurbishment: Jonathan clarifies that Russia only refurbishes older BMP models, not producing new ones (except BMP-3).

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BBC: North Korea Loses a Third of Forces Fighting for Russia

14:48-15:35⏩

• BBC Report on North Korean Losses: Jonathan reports on BBC news citing Western intelligence sources that North Korea has lost over a third of its forces fighting for Russia in Ukraine.
• Casualty Breakdown: 36% of North Korean forces are reported as dead, wounded, or captured, with 1,000 killed out of an estimated 12,000 deployed.
• Staggering Losses: Jonathan describes 36% losses as "staggering", estimating it to be over 4,000 casualties in total.

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Zelenskyy: 12,000 North Koreans in Kursk Region

🎦 15:35-16:15⏩

• Zelenskyy's Report: Jonathan cites Max24 reporting that Zelenskyy stated there are over 60,000 Russian soldiers and 12,000 North Koreans in the Kursk region.
• North Korean Casualties Repeated: Zelenskyy also reportedly stated that 4,000 North Koreans have already died.
• Source Overlap: Jonathan questions if Zelenskyy's figures are independent or if he is repeating the BBC report, or vice versa.
• AFU Course Direction Gratitude: He expresses gratitude to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) for being in the "course direction" (likely meaning providing accurate information).
• Russian Kharkiv Ambitions: Zelenskyy also noted Russian armed forces want to capture Kharkiv.

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Malcontent News: Russian Casualty Figures Analysis

🎦 16:15-18:05⏩

• Kursk Region Value: Jonathan mentions a previous discussion about Ukraine valuing the Kursk region.
• Malcontent News Analysis: He refers to a Malcontent News report suggesting Ukrainian casualty figures for Russians are closer to reality than previously thought, even by Malcontent News itself.
• Russian Deputy Defence Minister Leak: He mentions a slip by Russian Deputy Minister of Defence, Anna Evgenyevna (Putin's cousin), who reportedly stated on televised State Duma coverage that there were a minimum of 48,000 Russian troops Missing In Action (MIA).
• Admonishment for Leak: She was reportedly admonished on live TV for revealing sensitive information.
• MIA Figure as Basement: Jonathan notes the 48,000 MIA figure is likely a "basement" (minimum) number.
• Moscow Mayor's Wounded Figure (Questioned): He mentions Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin's reported statement on December 25th that 600,000 Russian soldiers are receiving long-term care for severe injuries. However, Jonathan questions the accuracy of this 600,000 figure, suggesting it might be a misstatement and could be closer to 60,000. He advises taking this claim with "a pinch of salt".

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Russian Casualties Calculation: 728,973

🎦 18:05-20:49⏩

• Meduza, Mediazona, BBC KIA Figure: Jonathan cites a joint report from Meduza, Mediazona, and BBC Russia from November 29th, stating 80,973 Russian service members confirmed Killed In Action (KIA).
• Verification Method: This figure is based on public obituary records in Russia and cross-referenced military service records.
• KIA Figure as Basement: Jonathan stresses this 80,973 KIA is an "absolute basement" figure, as some Russian regions have banned obituaries, not all deaths are publicly announced, and it doesn't include DPR/LPR stats.
• Wagner PMC Included (Edit): He clarifies (via edit) that the KIA figure does include Wagner PMC members.
• WIA/MIA Kremlin Figures Limited: Kremlin figures for Wounded In Action (WIA) and MIA do not include those prior to July 2023.
• Penal Soldiers and DPR/LPR Excluded: None of these figures include Russian penal soldiers or former Wagner members who didn't join the Ministry of Defence, meaning Bakhmut/Soledar offensive casualties are likely undercounted. Penal soldiers also don't receive standard treatment or pensions.
• Casualty Calculation: Jonathan performs a calculation: 80,973 KIA + 48,000 MIA + 600,000 WIA (though he discounts the 600,000 WIA as potentially inflated) = 728,973 Russian casualties.
• Russian Source Data: Two of these figures (MIA and potentially inflated WIA) are from Russian sources, while KIA is from public data analysis.
• Obituary Data Lag: Obituary data lags reality by approximately 6-8 weeks.

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Ukraine's Casualty Estimates: Accurate and Conservative

🎦 20:49-23:39⏩

• Kyiv's Casualty Estimate: On December 31st, Kyiv reported 789,550 Russian KIA/WIA.
• Daily Average Casualties: Average reported Russian casualties from 26th-31st December were approximately 1,700 per day.
• Ukraine's Figure Close to Verified Data: Malcontent News suggests Ukraine's official figures are only about 6.5% higher than the verified basement figures, which is considered "impressively close".
• No Mental Gymnastics Needed: Accounting for the 6.5% difference is straightforward.
• PMC Wagner Included in Ukraine's Count: Russia may not count PMC Wagner losses, but Ukraine likely does.
• Russian OBSEC Violations and Data Leak: Malcontent News started reporting Ukraine's figures because they are "shockingly close" to public domain data, following Russian OBSEC violations and data leaks.
• MIA Inclusion Questioned: The inclusion of MIA in casualty figures is discussed, acknowledging that while Russia may list them as MIA, Ukraine may know the status of some.
• Uncollected Bodies: Numerous videos show uncollected Russian bodies on the battlefield, contributing to MIA figures as "no body equals no benefits" in Russia.
• Ukrainian Obituary Audit Possible (but Not Done in Russia): Russian news organisations could audit Ukrainian obituaries, similar to BBC Russia and Mediazona, to get a baseline Russian loss figure, but they don't, likely to avoid contradicting official Russian numbers.
• Truth as First Casualty: Jonathan reiterates the "first casualty of war is the truth" and notes all combatants exaggerate enemy casualties, minimise their own, and exaggerate civilian casualties to varying degrees.
• Casualty Estimation Difficult: Estimating war casualties is very difficult, and every methodology has pros and cons.
• Ukraine's Estimates Likely Conservative: Malcontent News concludes Ukraine's published estimates are accurate, likely conservative, and validated by leaked data.
• Ukrainian General Staff Figures Largely Accurate: Jonathan affirms his long-held view that Ukrainian General Staff figures are "at least largely accurate".

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Book M3 System Destroyed by FPV Drone

🎦 23:39-23:58⏩

• Buk M3 Destroyed: Jonathan reports evidence of a Buk M3 surface-to-air missile system being destroyed or taken out by a First-Person View (FPV) drone strike. The extent of damage is unknown.
• Recent Buk System Losses: He notes "quite a few" Buk systems have been taken out recently.

Note: Transcript likely misheard "Buk M3" as "Book M3"

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North Korean Army's Impact on Russia's War Effort

🎦 23:58-25:31⏩

• War in North Korean Hands? Jonathan states the war is "now in the hands of the North Korean army" in terms of Russia's ability to continue the conflict.
• North Korean Soldiers and Materiel Essential: He argues that without 12,000 North Korean soldiers and materiel, Russia would be in "much greater trouble".
• Game Changer: North Korean involvement is described as "changing the game".
• Potential for More North Korean Reinforcements: The "worst possible situation" is that more North Korean soldiers and equipment will be sent.
• New York Times Report: The New York Times reports North Korea will send reinforcements within two months.

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North Korean Reinforcements Expected

🎦 25:31-27:13⏩

• North Korean Attrition: While North Korean soldiers might be considered "cannon fodder", Jonathan explains they will attrit Ukrainian forces.
• Ukrainian Soldier Replacement Challenges: Ukraine cannot replace soldiers at the same rate as North Korea or Russia.
• Pressure on Russia: Russia may be under immense attrition pressure.
• Asymmetric Impact on Ukraine: Even if Ukrainians inflict high ratios of losses on North Koreans, the losses Ukraine sustains are still detrimental because Ukraine has fewer human resources. For every 10 North Koreans, Ukraine will still lose personnel they would not have otherwise.
• Negative Impact of North Korean Involvement: Jonathan asserts there is "no way to paint this picture of North Korean involvement in a positive light" for Ukraine.
• Ukrainian Losses Inevitable: Even at a 20:1 attrition ratio against North Koreans, Ukrainian losses are losses that would not have occurred without North Korean involvement.
• More North Koreans, Worse for Ukraine: The more North Koreans involved, the worse the situation becomes for Ukraine.
• Real Challenge: He concludes North Korean involvement is a "real challenge" for Ukraine.

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Massive Drone Wave: 95 of 99 Intercepted

🎦 27:13-28:12⏩

• Massive Drone Attack: Jonathan reports another "massive wave of drones" sent overnight by Russia, continuing as he speaks. Explosions are reported around Zaporizhzhia and other Ukrainian locations.
• Outdated Information: He acknowledges the information is already outdated due to the ongoing attacks.
• Drone Interception Rate: Out of 99 launched drones, 65 were shot down, and 30 were suppressed by electronic warfare, totalling 95 out of 99 neutralised.
• Four Drones Got Through: Four drones reportedly got through Ukrainian defences.
• High Interception Rate: Jonathan considers this a "pretty good interception rate".
• Mykolaiv Hit Hardest: Mykolaiv appears to be the main focus of the drone attack, with damage to apartment buildings and private houses, leaving many without power, gas, or heating.
• Sumy Drone Strike: Sumy was also hit by a drone, with three minor injuries reported.
• Unknown Drone Impact Type (Sumy): It's unclear if the Sumy drone strike was a direct hit or from debris of a downed drone.

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Ukraine Hits Chemical Plants Inside Russia

🎦 28:12-29:50⏩

• Ukrainian Strike Inside Russia: Ukraine reportedly hit a chemical plant, Saratov Vorgintsev, in Russia's Saratov region, according to Astra.
• Workshop Damage: A workshop was hit, but damage "doesn't seem too serious" and may not stop production.
• Explosives Production: Jonathan notes that such chemical plants often produce explosives.
• Impact on Russian Ammunition: He links these strikes to reports from General Syrskyi that Russian ammunition fire rate is down to 50% of peak war levels.
• Ukrainian Targeting of Russian Munitions Production: Jonathan argues Ukraine has successfully targeted Russian depots and manufacturing facilities for gunpowder, shells, and explosives, from raw materials to finished products.

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Ukrainian Aviation Strikes Inside Russia: Significant

29:50-32:37⏩

• Bryansk Chemical Plant Strike: Satellite images from CyberBoroshno show three production buildings at a chemical plant in Bryansk hit in a recent Ukrainian attack.
• Aviation Forces Involved: "Aviation forces" were reportedly involved in the Bryansk strike, suggesting use of cruise missiles or, more likely, guided glide bombs.
• Aviation Strikes into Russia: Significant: Jonathan emphasises that using aviation to strike inside Russia is "really, really significant".
• Russia Downplaying Ukrainian Strikes: He notes the lack of major reaction from Russia and the world to these strikes, suggesting red lines are being crossed without the expected Russian response.
• Russia Being Hammered by Ukrainian Aviation: He concludes "Russia being hammered by Ukrainian aviation" is "good news for Ukraine".
• Extensive Drone Strikes on Russian Oil and Military Infrastructure: Jonathan reviews Anton Gerashchenko's summary of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil depots and refineries throughout the second half of 2024 and into January 2025.
• Drone Strike Range Expansion: Drone strikes have reached deep into Russia, covering the central part up to the Volga River.
• Engels and Voronezh Oil Depots Targeted Repeatedly: Oil depots in Engels and Voronezh region have been hit multiple times.
• Engels Oil Depot Footage: Footage exists of burning oil depots, including in Engels, indicating Russian air defence and electronic warfare systems are ineffective.
• Ust-Luga Port Strike: On January 4th, drones flew 900km to hit Ust-Luga port in the Leningrad region, Russia's largest seaport.
• Engels Airfield Fuel Depot Strike: On January 8th, drones flew 1,000km to hit an Engels oil depot supplying fuel for a military airfield.
• Rostov Region Fires: On January 10th, fires in Rostov region were caused by drone debris.
• Novorossiysk Port Fire: On January 11th, a fire in Novorossiysk port (500km from border) may have hit a cruise missile loading crane moved from Sevastopol.
• Multiple Targets on Jan 14th: On January 14th, drones attacked oil depots in Engels, Olg Sint Fez plant in Kazan, Saratov oil refinery, and Bryansk chemical plant.
• Voronezh Oil Depot Fire (Jan 15th): On January 15th, an oil depot in Voronezh region (200km from border) burned.
• Tambov Gunpowder Plant Strike: On January 16th, drones reached the Tambov gunpowder plant (400km range).
• Engels Oil Depot Re-attacked (Jan 17th): On January 17th, Engels oil depot was attacked again after a six-day fire was just extinguished.
• Tula and Kaluga Oil Depots (Jan 18th): On January 18th, oil depots in Tula and Kaluga regions were attacked.
• Kazan Aircraft Plant (Jan 20th): On January 20th, an aircraft plant in Kazan (1,000km from border) was hit. Voronezh oil depot was also revisited.
• Smolensk Military Industrial Facilities (Jan 21st): On January 21st, military industrial facilities in Smolensk (300km from border) were hit.
• Extensive but Incomplete List: This list is extensive but not exhaustive of all Ukrainian strikes during this period.

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Former Commander of Scandal-Hit Ukrainian Brigade Remanded in Custody

32:37-33:37⏩

• 155th Brigade Commander in Custody: Jonathan reports via the Kyiv Independent that the former commander of the "scandal-hit" Ukrainian 155th Brigade has been remanded in custody with bail set at 90 million hryvnia (£2.1 million).
• French-Trained Brigade Issues: The 155th Brigade, a French-trained unit intended to be elite, reportedly lacked drone capabilities and was broken up and redeployed due to command and desertion issues.
• Brigade's Negative News: The brigade has been in the news "for all the wrong reasons", which Jonathan considers a "shame" given French involvement in its training.

Note: Transcript likely misheard "Kiev Brigade" as "of Kiev Brigade". The 155th Brigade is implied to be Ukrainian, not of Kiev.

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Prokrosk Under Increasing Pressure from Russian Forces

🎦 33:37-34:38⏩

• Prokrosk Direction: In the Prokrosk direction (likely Pokrovsk), Russia is attempting to bypass the town.
• Kotlina Taken: Russian forces have taken Kotlina (geolocated by @Chishev), bypassing Prokrosk to the west.
• Offensive from Shevchenko: This allows Russians to continue their offensive from Shevchenko without western flank concerns, as supply roads are cut off.
• Prokrosk Encirclement Risk: Prokrosk is facing increasing pressure from the west, in addition to south and east, making the situation "really challenging".
• Devastation of Prokrosk: Jonathan recounts speaking to Pierre, who described the heartbreaking devastation of Prokrosk, a once thriving town now "liberated" by Russians.
• Russian Actions in Prokrosk: Pierre, who has visited Prokrosk many times, has witnessed the impact of Russian actions on people and places there, describing it as "absolutely heartbreaking".

Note: Transcript likely misheard "Prokrosk" as "Prokrosk" and "Kotlina" and "Shevchenko" and "Chishev" may have incorrect spellings.

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Evel Gherkin: 'SMO Has Failed' - Criticises Russian War Effort

🎦 34:38-36:13⏩

• Igor Girkin (Strelkov) Criticism from Prison: Jonathan discusses Igor Girkin (also known as Evel Gherkin in the transcript, likely a mishearing), former leader in the DPR in 2014, who is now imprisoned and has written from prison criticising Russia's "Special Military Operation" (SMO).
• Girkin's "SMO Failure" Assessment: Girkin believes the SMO has "failed" and "none of Putin's goals have been achieved".
• War on Russian Territory: He highlights that the war is now being fought on Russian territory.
• Drone Attacks Deep Inside Russia: Drones are targeting distant Russian regions.
• Armed Group on Border: A "powerful armed group" (likely Ukrainian) is concentrated along the Russian border.
• Girkin's Negative View: Jonathan summarises Girkin's view as "not very happy with the situation" and "a little critical of the Russians".

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Russian Artillery Inaccuracy: Propelling Charge Issues

🎦 36:13-39:38⏩

• Russian Artillery Problems: Jonathan cites ChrisO_wiki's thread about Russian artillerymen having "significant problems" with inconsistently filled propelling charges for shells.
• Accuracy Undermined: This inconsistency undermines artillery accuracy.
• Forbidden to Fix Problem: Russian General Staff has reportedly forbidden artillerymen from trying to fix the problem themselves.
• Long-Standing Issue: This issue of ammunition quality is not new.
• North Korean Ordnance Quality: The issue is potentially linked to the increased use of North Korean ordnance, which is considered "not very well manufactured".
• "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram Channel Report: Jonathan refers to a report from the "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel confirming complaints about ammunition quality, specifically "floating weight of gunpowder charges".
• Gunpowder Charge Weight Variation: The weight of gunpowder charges varies significantly and unpredictably, even within batches.
• Manufacturing Flaws Suspected: This variation suggests both "varying characteristics of different powders" and "purely production flaws".
• Prohibition on Field Adjustment: The Russian Ministry of Defence (MED) has prohibited soldiers from disassembling, weighing, and adjusting charge mass in the field since May 2024.
• "Two Majors" Channel Report: The "Two Majors" channel reported artillerymen measuring charges and finding weight variations, but discrepancies were blamed on soldiers tampering, not manufacturing issues.
• Prohibition Doesn't Solve Problem: Jonathan concludes that prohibiting weighing charges does not solve the underlying problem of inconsistent gunpowder charges.
• Inaccurate Munitions: The variety in gunpowder and weight differences leads to "unstable accuracy of destruction", even with well-trained crews and good guns.
• "Shit Show": He summarises the situation as "a bit of a shit show" with inaccurate munitions being delivered to the front.

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North Korean 170mm Guns Arriving: Not to be Dismissed

🎦 39:38-40:30⏩

• North Korean 170mm Guns: Despite the ammunition quality issues, Jonathan reports shipments of North Korean 170mm M1989 "Koksan" self-propelled guns are arriving.
• More Shipments: Further shipments of these guns are expected.
• Lethality Despite Flaws: While these guns may be old or of questionable quality, Jonathan stresses they "can fire lead at the Ukrainians and it can kill Ukrainian soldiers" and "shouldn't be dismissed out of hand".
• Attrition Tool: These guns will attrit Ukrainian forces, and Russia is receiving more and more of them.
• Front Line Deployment: These North Korean guns are being deployed to the front lines in Ukraine.
• Replacement for Heavy Mortars: Alexander Kovalenko shared an image confirming these systems are in use and act as replacements for destroyed 2S4 Tyulpan heavy 240mm mortars.

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Rusich Group: Warns of Russian Military Collapse if War Ends

🎦 40:30-46:50⏩

• Rusich Group Warning: Jonathan cites ChrisO_wiki again, reporting that the Russian neo-Nazi "Rusich" group warns of a "collapse of combat capabilities" in the Russian army if the war in Ukraine ends.
• Demobilisation Concerns: Rusich fears mass demobilisation will lead to experienced personnel leaving for civilian life, weakening the army.
• Putin Advised to Continue War: Rusich advises Putin to "keep the war going" to avoid this scenario.
• Eight "Victory" Criteria: Rusich advocates eight criteria for "victory" in Ukraine:

1. 1
2. 2
3. 3
4. 4
5. 5
6. 6
7. 7
8. 8

• Unrealistic Demands: Jonathan deems these demands unrealistic, stating "I can't think that that is going to happen at all".
• "Respite and Restoration" Goal: Rusich believes achieving these criteria would provide a "respite and restoration" opportunity for the Russian army, allowing for reserve replenishment and training.
• "Problematic Moment" of War Ending at Current Front Lines: Rusich warns that ending the war at current front lines would be "very important and problematic" because experienced personnel would leave, and the army would become "incapable of contact" again.
• Personnel Shortages Already Noted: Rusich observes an existing "lack of trained personnel" that will worsen with demobilisation.
• Retention Difficulties: Rusich highlights difficulties in retaining personnel due to:
  • "Ridiculous" peacetime salaries.
  • Expired military contracts.
  • "Unfair" benefits and payments for service, with disparities between pre-mobilisation and post-mobilisation contracts.
  • Lack of rotation for mobilised personnel.
  • Age and health issues of contract signees.
  • "Ridiculous" veteran benefits.
• Troop Numbers Bolstered by Forced Service: Rusich notes troop numbers are maintained by preventing contract expirations and forcing unfit soldiers back to the front.
• "Crippled Units": Reports and videos show "crippled units" and unfit soldiers being forced back into combat.
• 80% Demobilisation Expected: Rusich predicts at least 80% of personnel will leave service after the SMO.
• Shortage of Personnel and Specialists: This will create a shortage of personnel and specialists.
• Combat Experience Ignored: Combat experience is "almost not taken into account", and new military manuals are written by academics with limited real-world war experience.
• Shortage of Motivated Youth: There will be a shortage of "motivated and trained youth" for future recruitment.
• Ukrainian Youth Training Contrast: Rusich contrasts this with Ukraine, which has been training youth (12-16 years old) since 2014, who are now adults and "motivated warriors".
• Youth Training Neglected in Russia: Youth training in Russia has been "forgotten and did not develop".
• State Doesn't Prioritise Civil Defence: Rusich argues the Russian state, evidenced by "stupid and harmful amendments to gun legislation", doesn't aim to create a civil society capable of armed defence.
• Problem Forgotten Post-SMO: This problem will be "forgotten again" after the SMO, especially if it doesn't end in "complete victory".
• Continuation of War in Future: A non-victory SMO outcome means "a continuation of the war in a few years".
• Lessons Unlearned: Russia's "enemy" (Ukraine) will learn lessons, but Russia will not prepare reserves.
• "Nonsense" of Mobilising Veterans: Rusich dismisses the idea of easily mobilising SMO veterans for future conflicts, as many will not want to fight again and will avoid future mobilisation.
• Frozen Conflict and Ageing Veterans: A frozen conflict will resume in years to come, but veterans will be older, less healthy, and less skilled.
• Rusich's Reform Proposals: Rusich proposes reforms to create a better trained reserve, including "conditioning migrants" and granting Russian citizenship for those who join assault troops and "perform their tasks with dignity and survive".
• "Major Source" of Russian Discontent: Jonathan highlights Rusich's analysis as a "major source" indicating "all is not well" in Russia.
• Frozen War Problematic: Rusich believes a "frozen war" would be problematic for Russia.
• Putin's Incentive to Continue War: Jonathan suggests Putin has an incentive to continue the war because demobilisation would be economically and socially problematic, creating an economic dependence on war.
• Migrant Recruitment Strategy: To continue the war, Russia will need to recruit more migrants, offering citizenship as an incentive to fight.
• War Until "Complete Victory": Rusich advocates for continuing the war until "complete victory" to avoid army weakening.
• "Harmful" Hopes for Quick Peace: Rusich deems hopes for a quick peace "harmful" given Russia's "modest achievements".
• "Pretty Harsh": Jonathan concludes Rusich's analysis is "pretty harsh".

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UK Defence Minister: Russia Spying on Underwater Cables – 'We Know What You're Doing'

🎦 46:50-48:38⏩

• Russian Spy Ship Near UK Cables: Jonathan reports on news of Russia spying on UK underwater cables and infrastructure.
• Second Incident in Months: UK Defence Minister John Healey revealed this is the second such incident in a couple of months.
• UK Message to Putin: Healey sent a message to Putin that the UK "will not shy away from robust action".
• Spy Ship "Yantar": The incident involves the Russian ship "Yantar", identified as a spy ship.
• Russian Denial, UK Monitoring: Russia denies it's a spy ship, but the UK has been "covertly monitoring it for a while via submarine", leaving "zero doubt" about the allegations.
• Royal Navy Shadowing: The Royal Navy is "closely shadowing" Yantar as it moves through the English Channel, with HMS Somerset frigate flanking it.
• Growing Russian Threat to Offshore Infrastructure: The UK views this as guarding against a "growing Russian threat to offshore infrastructure in European seas".
• Healey's Message Quoted: Defence Secretary Healey's message to Putin is quoted: "We know what you're doing and we will not shy away from robust action to protect Britain."
• NATO Allies Strengthening Response: The UK, with allies, is "strengthening our response" to ensure Russian ships and aircraft cannot operate secretly near UK or NATO territory.
• Russian "Opposing to Us": Jonathan comments on Russia "opposing to us".
• English Channel Spy Ship: He shows images of the Russian spy ship in the English Channel.
• More Forthright UK Response: Jonathan suggests the UK has been "conservative" in its Russia response and it's "good to see that we are being a little bit more forthright".

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Ukraine Invests €450 Million in Wind Power Expansion

🎦 48:38-50:14⏩

• Ukraine Energy Diversification: Jonathan shifts to the topic of diversifying Ukraine's energy sources, advocating for energy independence as crucial for security.
• Renewables Solution: He suggests renewable energy sources, like wind power, as a solution.
• Wind Power Investment: Ukraine's largest private energy company, DTEK, announced plans to invest €450 million in expanding the Chelyabinsk Wind Power Plant near the Black Sea coast.
• Wind Farm Resilience: Jonathan argues wind farms are more resilient to attack than thermal power plants, as they are spread out and harder to disable long-term.
• Localized Energy Production Merits: He advocates for localized energy production, including solar panels on institutions like hospitals, to improve energy independence and resilience during blackouts.

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Wrap up

🎦 50:14-52:17⏩

• Video Length Apology: Jonathan apologises for the video's length.
• Appreciation for Support: He expresses appreciation for viewer support in getting vehicles to Ukraine, acknowledging associated costs and appealing for further support to continue content production and help the team in Ukraine.
• Lviv and Kyiv Reporting: He mentions upcoming reporting from Lviv and Kyiv, including a public interview event with Jonathan Fink in Lviv.
• Channel Support Appeal (Reluctant): Jonathan expresses reluctance but makes a direct appeal for channel support to enable their work and support the team.
• Gratitude for Patience: He thanks viewers for their patience with his "inconsistent output" due to recent demands.
• Thanks to Viewers and Team: He thanks viewers for being "amazing" and expresses privilege at being in Ukraine with his "amazing" team from the UK and Netherlands.
• "Joy of Humanity" and Juxtaposition: Jonathan describes experiencing a "joy of humanity" with his team, contrasted with the "lack of humanity" from the Russian side.
• Closing Remarks: He concludes with "Take care, y'all. Big love and I'll speak to you soon."

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