Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"It's all going to be about indigenous production for Ukraine, isn't it really, going forward?"

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:48⏩

Jonathan starts by expressing his disappointment with the newly announced VP pick for Trump, J.D. Vance. He finds Vance's apparent lack of concern for Ukraine and the ongoing war deeply depressing. Despite feeling disheartened, he proceeds with the frontline update, apologizing for being behind schedule.

Return to top⤴️

📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Frontline Overview - Lots of activity!

🎦 00:48-01:10⏩

Jonathan points out the significant number of changes on the frontline map, acknowledging that he may have missed some updates in previous analyses. He notes that while there are many minor changes, some were already known from other sources like Deep State Map.

Return to top⤴️

Kharkiv - Vovchansk (East) - Push and shove

🎦 01:10-02:07⏩

Jonathan observes an interesting situation in the easternmost section north of Kharkiv, near Vovchansk. Surat Maps indicates Ukrainian gains, while other sources, including Reporting from Ukraine, suggest Russian advances across the Vovcha River. Jonathan describes this as a potential “yin and yang” situation where both sides experience minor gains and losses.

Return to top⤴️

Kupyansk - Svatove - Kreminna - No Changes

🎦 02:07-02:20⏩

No changes on the frontlines in this area.

Return to top⤴️

Svatove - Kreminna (Makivka) - Mapping Discrepancies

🎦 02:20-03:29⏩

Jonathan highlights discrepancies in mapping data around Makivka. While Surat Maps showed extensive Ukrainian gains the previous day, their latest update indicates a significant reversal, possibly due to a Ukrainian counterattack or an overestimation of their advance. Other maps, however, have not reflected such changes, suggesting ongoing fighting and a less definitive situation in Makivka.

Return to top⤴️

Lyman - Siversk - Quiet for now?

🎦 03:29-04:22⏩

While the frontline around the Torska bulge appears relatively static, Jonathan speculates that the Russians may be taking a breather after recent attempts to push across the canal in the area. He suggests that any future effort to advance would require significant preparation and a substantial force. Jonathan explains the difficulty of maneuvering mechanized equipment through the heavily wooded terrain and limited road networks. He believes any Russian attempt to cross the canal would necessitate navigating these logistical challenges.

Return to top⤴️

Bakhmut - Klishchiivka - Russians Advance

🎦 04:22-05:52⏩

Jonathan discusses the situation in Klishchiivka, noting a significant change in Andrew Perpetua's mapping, which now aligns with Surat Maps' earlier claims of Russian control in the area. This change suggests Russian control of the trench area northwest of the village, the area further north between Ivaniske and Klishchiivka, and the region south between the railway line and Klishchiivka. Despite this, Jonathan expresses curiosity about the source and evidence supporting this assessment, especially considering the challenges of maintaining control in such a vulnerable position. He hopes to explore the Institute for the Study of War's analysis for further insights.

Return to top⤴️

Bakhmut - Turetsk and New York - Russian pressure builds

🎦 05:52-07:11⏩

Jonathan reports on Russian gains north of Druzhba and Pivnichna in the Turetsk area. Deep State Map and Surat Maps both show an expansion of Russian control in this sector, indicating a concerning push towards New York. While there have been no changes in New York itself since the previous day's expansion of the salient's base, the entire area southeast of New York is under increasing pressure and appears precarious.

Return to top⤴️

Donetsk - Avdiivka - Ominous for Ukraine

🎦 07:11-08:33⏩

West of Avdiivka, Jonathan reports consistent agreement among all mappers regarding Russian gains towards Prokhorivka along the railway line north of Yevhenivka and south of the town itself. Novoselivka Druha, and Pervomaiske are under increasing threat as Russian forces close in from the north and advance through the fields southeast of these locations. This situation appears ominous for Ukrainian forces, who seem to be gradually withdrawing. Jonathan speculates that this may be a strategic retreat to more fortified positions and trench lines between the current line and Prokhorivka. He also mentions Russian gains south of Umansk, the extent of which falls between the assessments of Deep State Map, Andrew Perpetua, and Surat Maps.

Return to top⤴️

Donetsk - Yasnobrodivka - Who is in control?

🎦 08:33-09:07⏩

Jonathan addresses the contested situation around Yasnobrodivka, where Russian forces claim to have captured the town. While Ukrainian sources deny this, the other mappers suggest it might be a "gray zone." Further investigation is needed to determine who maintains control over the location.

Return to top⤴️

Donetsk - Krasnohorivka - Falling to Russia?

🎦 09:07-09:49⏩

Jonathan observes that in Krasnohorivka, Surat Maps depicts Russian forces advancing from the east, making inroads into the northern part of the town and pushing through its central and western areas. Andrew Perpetua's map also reflects these gains, albeit to a lesser extent. The consistent Russian progress in this area suggests that Krasnohorivka may soon fall under their control.

Return to top⤴️

Donetsk - Mariinka - Kostyantynivka - No Changes

🎦 09:49-10:18⏩

Jonathan notes no changes in the areas around Mariinka and further south towards Kostyantynivka, which is positive news for Ukrainian forces holding their positions.

Return to top⤴️

Velyka Novosilka - Uraijne - Russian Control Confirmed

🎦 10:18-10:46⏩

In the Velika Novosilka sector, Andrew Perpetua's mapping now aligns with other sources, confirming Russian control of Urozhaine and areas slightly north of Staromaiorske. This update reflects gains made in previous days rather than immediate changes within the past 24 hours.

Return to top⤴️

Summer - A critical time for Ukraine

🎦 10:46-11:36⏩

Jonathan emphasizes that this period of summer poses a significant challenge for Ukrainian forces, aligning with earlier warnings. The favorable weather conditions, despite the current heatwave, generally facilitate fighting, making it crucial for the Russians to capitalize on the situation before Ukrainian mobilization efforts and increased Western military aid potentially shift the balance. Jonathan notes that the extreme temperatures, reaching almost 40 degrees Celsius, significantly impact troop performance and motivation. He references Dom Nicholls from UK Defence Journal, who highlighted the challenges of operating in such conditions, particularly when burdened with body armor. These factors underscore the difficult conditions faced by soldiers on the frontline.

Return to top⤴️

Ukrainian Domestic Production - A Ray of Hope?

🎦 11:47-12:59⏩

Jonathan contemplates the gloomy political climate surrounding the war, noting that Ukrainian domestic production, potentially with American and Western support, might be a solution to mitigate the impact of shifting political winds in the US. He argues that even if US financial aid to Ukraine ceases, they are unlikely to prevent Ukraine from manufacturing equipment in collaboration with American companies within Ukraine. The key question remains whether Ukraine can secure the necessary funding to sustain such production if US support dwindles.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap up

🎦 12:59-13:12⏩

Jonathan concludes the update, acknowledging the significant questions surrounding Ukraine's future but leaves those discussions for another day. He expresses gratitude for his viewers' continued support.

Return to top⤴️