Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News, USAID Kherson Projects
Table of Contents 📖
"Any of these tankers could easily be purchased by some thrifty Russian pensioner grandmother. She would have a choice either [to buy] a used Lada Kalina or a tanker."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:52⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the first part of the Ukraine War Update. He's running late today, had a bit of a lie-in, after a rare late night - watching Night Agent with his wife and playing a board game "Sherman Leader" which he won by the way - "World War Two, Italy 1943"
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 00:52-03:17⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day (15th February 2025). He notes that the figure of 1,730 personnel lost is a "massive uptick" compared to previous daily figures and is likely due to the increased pressure that the Russians put on the Ukrainians the previous day, particularly near Kreminna. He analyses the figures for other equipment losses which indicate that the Russians stockpiled traditional equipment (tanks, armoured vehicles) to support their attacks, but that these were largely repelled by the Ukrainians. The lower number of artillery systems lost is notable given that losses have been huge recently. Jonathan also notes that although high, the number of vehicles and fuel tanks lost is much lower than we have seen recently.
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Russians abandon North Korean and Naval Infantry units in Kursk
🎦 03:17-05:33⏩
Claims from Russian sources that Russian forces have abandoned North Korea units and Russian Naval Infantry units in Nikolskye in the Kursk region with 50-100 fighters leaving their positions. Z channels blame the Russian 155th Brigade for failing to provide support, although they were heavily criticised for their actions in the area - a column of 155th vehicles drove under red flags "like a parade" straight into a swarm of Ukrainian drones along a mined road. The commanders are coming under heavy criticism with accusations of betrayal and murder. Jonathan notes that this will have contributed to the high Russian losses reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
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Ukrainian resistance in South of Prokrosk
🎦 05:33-10:58⏩
Russian milblogger "Evil Gherkin" reports on the situation south of Prokrosk where Ukrainian troops fully control the skies and are deploying a massive number of drones. He states that Russian forces are unable to move more than 3km past the village of Zeladove and that rotation is impossible. Water, food and fuel are becoming a critical issue for the Russians with soldiers "literally freezing in their positions". Footage supports this showing a scrapyard of Russian generators destroyed by Ukrainian drones. Russian forces are experiencing issues with Ukrainian EW (electronic warfare) coverage and are unable to use their "Bukhanka" vans (Scooby Doo vans) due to fears they are too vulnerable to drone attacks. The Ukrainians are using a variety of artillery and rockets (some of which haven't been heard before) very close to the contact line. Jonathan believes that both sides should be doing this and hammering each other with drones and other munitions as much as possible, given the apparent weakness of the Russian forces. "Evil Gherkin" finishes his report by stating that no-one understands how to operate in these conditions and that they need to start using glide bombs like they are doing in Avdiivka. Jonathan notes that the use of glide bombs by the Russians has ticked back up to their previous high point after a couple of months of not using them very much.
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Russian Advance Slowing Down
🎦 10:58-13:21⏩
The Wall Street Journal reports that the Russian advance has slowed over winter - in part because the lack of foliage makes it easier to spot and target infantry with drones, but also because of growing exhaustion on the Russian side. Russia has burnt through about half of its stocks of tanks and armoured vehicles. At the current rate they will run critically low on battle tanks and armoured personnel carriers by late 2025. Tendar, the German analyst, states that in the last three weeks the Russians have taken no more than 23sq km (around 1sq km per day) and that this is a further slowing down. This reinforces the Wall Street Journal analysis. Russian bloggers report that Russian vehicles in the Prokrosk sector are being methodically destroyed by Ukrainian drones and that they are unable to use them effectively, resulting in Russian personnel having to walk more than 10km to the front line. This ties in with the report from "Evil Gherkin" earlier.
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Ukrainian Frontline Update - Prokrosk
🎦 13:21-14:07⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff report that Russian forces have intensified their assault operations in the Prokrosk sector two and a half times, bringing the number of engagements across the frontline to 250. The Defence forces held their positions, inflicting heavy losses on the Russians.
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Russians Destroy Ukrainian Munitions Hangar
🎦 14:07-14:58⏩
Video footage has emerged showing a Ukrainian missile/MLRS hangar being destroyed in a Russian missile strike. It's unclear whether the hangar contained HIMARS but it did contain munitions.
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Russians destroy their own equipment and troops - Friendly Fire?
🎦 14:58-16:22⏩
Footage has emerged of a Russian tank crushing its own comrades and using fire to destroy its own infantry. There has also been an increase in the amount of footage of Ukrainian helicopters shooting down Russian drones at night. Jonathan questions how the Ukrainians manage to avoid shooting down their own drones and speculates that it must be quite risky operating in this way.
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Russian Musician Dies in Suspected Defenestration
🎦 16:22-17:00⏩
Another Russian musician, Artem Primak (44) who opposed the war has died after falling from a ninth floor window in Nikolaevsk on Amur. Jonathan expresses his sadness and concern for those who oppose the war, noting that they are at huge risk.
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Distance Strikes Overnight 15th-16th February
🎦 17:00-18:45⏩
There were no reports of significant Ukrainian strikes overnight. Russia launched 143 drones, of these 95 were shot down, 46 fell harmlessly and 2 got through. The regions of Mykolaiv, Odesa, Sumy and Kyiv were affected, although damage was limited. Jonathan notes that the centre of Kyiv is relatively safe and it tends to be the satellite towns, such as Boryspil and Brovary that get hit because this is where a lot of the industrial areas and manufacturing takes place. He shows images of drone strikes in Mykolaiv, noting that this is what the Russians do on a daily basis. Footage also emerged of a Ukrainian drone attack on a polymer plant in Smolensk.
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Frontline Update - South of Prokrosk, Kreminna
🎦 18:45-20:33⏩
The Ukrainians are reporting slight gains on the frontline, having retaken the village of Pishchane, south of Prokrosk, although the situation there remains fluid. The Russians are putting a lot of pressure on Kotlyna. Further south near Kreminna, the situation in the village of Kostiantynivka is causing concern with fears that if the village falls to the Russians (which is looking likely) it could result in Ukrainian troops being trapped. Jonathan reported his concerns a couple of days ago that the Russians hadn't been able to close the neck of the cauldron as it is very vulnerable. The Russians have also restarted their attack near Kreminna, with 17 pieces of heavy equipment attacking Ukrainian positions along the Odrade-Yuliakiv line. The village of Zelensky, previously recaptured by the Ukrainians, has once again fallen to the Russians.
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Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference
🎦 20:33-21:09⏩
At the Munich Security Conference, Zelensky stated that Russia is preparing 15 new divisions (150,000 troops) in Belarus. He called for the creation of a European Armed Forces. Jonathan also reminds us of the AP report that European nations are preparing a plan to deploy troops to Ukraine after the war to ensure security.
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USAID Funding in Kherson
🎦 21:09-26:19⏩
Jonathan is going to talk about Kherson, but rather than talk about the horrors that are happening there (referencing the work of Brendan Kelly) he wants to mention Brendan's work on the importance of USAID funding in Kherson. This follows a very interesting live stream he did with journalist Caelan Robertson who has spent time filming in Kherson (and whom Jonathan put in contact with Brendan). He urges everyone to watch the live stream if they haven't already, describing it as "one of the very best" he has done. Jonathan notes that he has seen evidence of the importance of USAID funding himself, having seen USAID logos on vehicles and posters all over Ukraine. Brendan is unhappy that USAID funding has been stopped and has written an article detailing 50 different projects in the Kherson area that are being affected. People need to realise how important this funding is - it is used for all sorts of things including generators, radios, civic programmes, food, etc and is a very effective way of the Americans spreading soft power and encouraging people to appreciate them. Jonathan is concerned about what he is hearing about USAID funding being cut in other areas, such as the Balkans and fears that things could flare up again there as a result. He believes that although not a huge amount of the US budget, it is money well spent.
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Russia's Special Task Department
🎦 26:19-27:08⏩
The Wall Street Journal reports that a new Russian task force, the Special Task Department, has been set up to conduct covert operations in Europe. Made up of veterans of Ukraine's "most daring clandestine operations", the unit is responsible for assassinations, sabotage and subversion. They are active in both Ukraine and other countries. The EU and US have sanctioned its members.
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Russian Oil Tanker Update
🎦 27:08-30:08⏩
An update on the oil tankers that sunk in the Kerch Strait in December 2024. The owners of the tankers, which caused an estimated $335 million worth of damage, have been fined just $600,000 roubles (approx £6,588). The company, Volga Transneft (owners of the Volganeft 212 and Volganeft 239) were fined for violating the rules that ban tankers from operating after the permitted sailing season. The ships were not designed for the stormy conditions. The case for the other two tankers that sank (Volganeft 212 and Volganeft 270) is still to be heard. A Telegram channel has revealed that the tankers were bought by Volga Transneft for less than $71,000 for all 6 (less than $13,000 each) and were likely purchased from a scrapyard to meet the increased demand for vessels following sanctions on Russian oil products in 2022. The ships were so old, that they should have been scrapped years ago.
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Wrap Up
🎦 30:08-30:17⏩
That's the end of part 1. Jonathan hopes people found it interesting and useful and asks people to like, subscribe and share.
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