Ukraine Conflict (20230930): Full Frontline Update - Have Ukraine Culminated?
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"The reality is Russia have done an exceptionally, I think, good job of building the fences over the time that they've had over the last six months or so."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides a general sense that things are slow and grinding on the frontlines because Russia is throwing a lot at pretty much everywhere, especially in Robotyne where both sides have their major forces. Even in Klishchivka and Bakhmut, the Russians are trying to retake lost territory using their counter-attack form of defence.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeast - Kupyansk
- Claims that Russia has taken out bridges in Kupyansk, including a number of bridges across the Oskil River
- However, Andrew Perpetua says this is likely psyops and the bridges are still up based on his knowledge and analysis of satellite imagery
- Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says fewer Russian ground attacks in Kupyansk and Lyman directions means the Ukrainian counter-offensive has distracted Russian forces and weakened their offensive efforts
- Fewer Russian troops and incursions, but more amplification of claims in this sector
Bakhmut
- Suriat Maps shows Russians have advanced considerably over Vasylivka area, but Andrew Perpetua says the videos used are likely from April/May based on green foliage in the videos compared to brown grass/fields currently
- Tough fighting south of Bakhmut, Ukrainians pushed across railway towards Andriivka but Russians counter-attacked and possibly pushed them back
- Claims of Russian gains north of Klishchivka but unclear
- Ukrainians are trying to take Kurdiumivka and fighting across railway line towards Nelipivka
Donbas
Russian mercenary Guzenko, an ultra-nationalist propagandist, provides a scathing rebuke of Russia's approach in Donbas:
- Russia grabbed everyone, even the disabled, and threw them into slaughter without equipment or ammunition
- Russia promised to protect Donbas but instead mobilised all men, killing thousands and leaving the region in ruin
- It took a year to annex the territories and those who survived and fled now face prosecution under new Russian laws
Southern Frontline - Robotyne
- Deep State Maps shows the Russian bulge has moved down, unclear what this signifies
- Andrew Perpetua shows Ukrainians are further back in Novoprokopivka than originally
- Russians are hidden in house remains in Novoprokopivka and being hammered by Ukrainian artillery
- Ukrainians pushed Russians out of 1.8 sq km south of Novoprokopivka and north of Vodyane
- Andrew Perpetua says Ukrainians have culminated and can't do enough without air superiority
- Ukrainians need air defences to survive the winter and protect infrastructure while gearing up defence industry
- Ukrainians made progress then ground to a halt in Velyka Novosilka area, threw everyone into Robotyne but so did Russians
- No real movement for over a week, Russians pushing back in some areas
Dnipro River
- Thomas Theiner says plenty of Ukrainian troops still hold bridgeheads at Oleshky and Kozachi Laheri
- Lots of activity and boats being lost on both sides
- Andrew Perpetua notes Russian footage shows empty boats being hit while Ukrainian footage shows boats with people being chased and hit by loitering munitions
- Possible asymmetry and shaping up of activity around Dnipro according to Theiner
Analysis and Wrap Up
Jonathan questions if he is just catching the doom as there are ups and downs with the activities. Ukrainians have had successes south of Bakhmut but fairly limited in the context of winning the war. If Ukrainians culminate, do Russians have enough resources and energy for their own offensive or will they be consistently on defensive waiting for Ukraine to get more Western resources? Russia likely can't produce enough longer term. Jonathan appreciates the staggering support as he is having difficulties with his channels.
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