ATP Distilled

ISW Daily Report Summary

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment Summary, 20th October 2024

The full ISW Report used to create this summary, as well as all historical reports for the Ukraine-War can be found at ISW - Ukraine Project

Key Developments

  • Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against the Lipetsk-2 Air Base near Lipetsk City and Russian state-owned defence enterprise Sverdlov in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast on the night of 19th-20th October. The Sverdlov Plant is one of Russia's largest explosives factories. [1, 3, 4]
  • Moldovan authorities have yet to announce the results of the 20th October presidential election and European Union (EU) referendum, but both have passed the required voter turnout threshold to be valid. [8, 9]
  • Russian sources claimed that former Russian Yukos Oil Company Vice President for Corporate Management Mikhail Rogachev was found dead in a possible suicide after falling from a window in Moscow on 20th October. One Russian insider source claimed that Rogachev did not have cancer and his death was unexpected. [20, 22]
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Sudzha. [25]

Notable Anecdotes

  • Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal disguised in civilian clothes - a war crime, if confirmed. [36]
  • Former Russian space agency Roscosmos head and current Zaporizhia Oblast occupation senator Dmitry Rogozin highlighted problems in the Russian defence industrial base (DIB) and defence technology development in an interview with Russian outletMoskovsky Komsomoletspublished on 20th October. He claimed that Russian pilots need a "backup" navigation system to operate their aircraft and drop bombs in areas with Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference and sarcastically claimed that the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) had to "change its registration" due to Ukrainian naval drone strikes. [65]
  • A Russian milblogger and former Storm-Z instructor complained on 19th October that the Russian military is incurring unnecessary losses by using specialists in assault operations and failing to provide sufficient training to new personnel. [66]

Frontline Summary

  • Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation - Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Sudzha amid continued fighting in Ukraine's main salient in Kursk Oblast on 20th October. Geolocated footage published on 20th October indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Cherkassoye Porechnoye (north of Sudzha). Neither Ukrainian nor Russian sources reported on ground attacks in Glushkovsky Raion (west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast) on 20th October. [25, 26]
  • Kharkiv Oblast - Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk and Starytsya on 19th-20th October but did not make any confirmed advances. [29]
  • Luhansk Oblast - Russian forces reportedly advanced near Kupyansk amid continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on 19th October. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in central and southern Kruhlyakivka (south of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces occupy at least half of the settlement. [30]
  • Siversk - Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported Russian offensive operations in the Siversk direction on 20th October. [N/A]
  • Bakhmut - Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar on 20th October, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. [35]
  • Avdiivka-Donetsk - Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk amid continued offensive operations in the area on 20th October. Geolocated footage published on 20th October indicates that Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Nelipivka (south of Toretsk) and along Druzhby Street in central Toretsk. Russian forces recently marginally advanced southeast of Pokrovsk amid continued offensive operations east and southeast of the settlement on 20th October. Geolocated footage published on 20th October indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced on the northeastern outskirts of Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk). Russian forces continued offensive operations east of Kurakhove on 20th October, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian forces continued offensive operations southwest of Donetsk City near Vuhledar on 20th October, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. [39, 42, 49, 52]
  • Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area - Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported on Russian ground activity in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on 20th October. [N/A]
  • Southern Axis - Russian forces continued assaults near Robotyne and northeast of Robotyne near Mala Tokmachka on 19th-20th October, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian forces continued attacks in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast on 19th-20th October but did not make any confirmed advances. [56, 58]

Sources

  • [1] - https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0ccT5GHLFv5N3g7W9gpwTyqbJxZFLvWb8wRCnyQqm1BKKnS5hydbANRikvi4BuUHl
  • [3] - https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0ccT5GHLFv5N3g7W9gpwTyqbJxZFLvWb8wRCnyQqm1BKKnS5hydbANRikvi4BuUHl
  • [4] - https://www.newsweek.com/russia-sverdlov-explosives-plant-ukraine-drone-attacks-dzerzhinsk-nizhny-novgorod-1971796 ; https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/10/20/rosiyany-zbyly-svoyim-najbilshym-zavodom-z-vyrobnycztva-vybuhivky-kilka-ukrayinskyh-droniv/
  • [8] - https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-poses-long-term-threats-moldova%E2%80%99s-european-integration-beyond-october-elections
  • [9] - https://www.legis dot md/cautare/getResults?doc_id=144550&lang=ro# ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-poses-long-term-threats-moldova%E2%80%99s-european-integration-beyond-october-elections
  • [20] - https://www.mk dot ru/incident/2024/10/19/v-moskve-pogib-odin-iz-byvshikh-rukovoditeley-yukosa.html ; https://novayagazeta dot eu/articles/2024/10/20/byvshii-vitse-prezident-iukos-ep-mikhail-rogachev-naiden-mertvym-v-moskve-news ; https://rtvi dot com/news/byvshij-top-menedzher-yukosa-najden-mertvym-vozle-svoego-doma-v-czentre-moskvy/ ; https://www.rbc dot ru/business/19/10/2024/671405519a794718bba03c4e ; https://tass dot ru/proisshestviya/22167993
  • [22] - https://t.me/vchkogpu/51863
  • [25] - https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7179; https://t.me/VARVARGROUP/361
  • [26] - https://t.me/RVvoenkor/79017; https://t.me/rybar/64582; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/79017
  • [29] - https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Ko2xaoMCEYXTz1d29UC1YzYUxSA64G7diPjDReabwuuyoVJ4Ui9eVAn63EPiwNQel ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02VBED6hCAJMjFyNJWBBgeCUtxRd4TRcGg5VbpcWB1LxNbz6FqJiPJEXzaHPzs6kSCl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02AunGWcWWBtZDRoxBL7y54T3yAYNg9H4osjUrN9L35aiLKTFVVxCkxdnLg3zhC4N9l
  • [30] - https://t.me/rybar/64581 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/79022 ; https://t.me/z_arhiv/28700
  • [35] - https://t.me/dva_majors/554 ; https://t.me/z_arhiv/28704
  • [36] - https://suspilne dot media/donbas/861841-taktika-tarakana-rosiani-perebigaut-cerez-kanal-ta-peredagautsa-v-civilne-situacia-bila-casovogo-aru/
  • [39] - https://t.me/OBiloshytskiy/1031; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7177 ; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7178; https://t.me/OBiloshytskiy/1032
  • [42] - https://t.me/creamy_caprice/7176; https://t.me/ghost_of_khortytsia/177
  • [49] - https://t.me/dva_majors/55456 ; https://t.me/z_arhiv/28694 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/22707
  • [52] - https://t.me/voin_dv/11420 ; https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/19204 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/22707 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/55456 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/55456 ; https://t.me/basurin_e/14975
  • [56] - https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Ko2xaoMCEYXTz1d29UC1YzYUxSA64G7diPjDReabwuuyoVJ4Ui9eVAn63EPiwNQel ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02VBED6hCAJMjFyNJWBBgeCUtxRd4TRcGg5VbpcWB1LxNbz6FqJiPJEXzaHPzs6kSCl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02AunGWcWWBtZDRoxBL7y54T3yAYNg9H4osjUrN9L35aiLKTFVVxCkxdnLg3zhC4N9l
  • [58] - https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Ko2xaoMCEYXTz1d29UC1YzYUxSA64G7diPjDReabwuuyoVJ4Ui9eVAn63EPiwNQel ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02AunGWcWWBtZDRoxBL7y54T3yAYNg9H4osjUrN9L35aiLKTFVVxCkxdnLg3zhC4N9l
  • [65] - https://www.mk dot ru/politics/2024/10/20/dmitriy-rogozin-realno-na-nashikh-glazakh-proizoshla-voennotekhnicheskaya-revolyuciya.html
  • [66] - https://t.me/philologist_zov/1601