Ukraine War BREAKING NEWS: Historical Moment - 1st ICBM Used in Combat
Table of Contents 📖
"De-escalation requires the attacker to attack less, not the victim to defend less."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:12⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a breaking news update on the Ukraine War for 21st November 2024. He highlights the significance of the day, marking the first use of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in combat.
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Ukraine Claims First ICBM Use in Combat
🎦 00:12-00:55⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian Air Force's claim that Russia launched an ICBM from the Astrakhan region. He speculates that Russia's actions might be a response to the US allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory using ATACMs and Storm Shadow missiles. He argues that Russia, wary of using nuclear weapons, might view the ICBM launch as a way to send a message without resorting to nuclear escalation.
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Russia’s Motives and International Response
🎦 00:55-02:14⏩
Jonathan analyses Russia's motives, stating that this ICBM launch is likely a signal to the West. He mentions comments by figures like Ben Hodges, who argue that Russia has no strategic interest in using nuclear weapons and has faced warnings from China, India, and the US against such actions. Jonathan suggests that this ICBM launch, while significant, is a way for Russia to express anger over Ukrainian long-range strikes without triggering a nuclear response.
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Embassy Closures and ICBM Protocols
🎦 02:14-02:48⏩
Jonathan connects the ICBM launch to the recent closure of American, Spanish, Italian, and Greek embassies in Kyiv. He speculates that these closures might be linked to a protocol requiring advance warnings before ICBM launches. He notes that while the embassies were closed due to a perceived threat, the ICBM wasn’t targeted at Kyiv, but rather at Dnipro.
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Analysis of the Dnipro ICBM Strike
🎦 02:48-04:00⏩
Jonathan analyses footage of the ICBM strike in Dnipro, which was less than 100km from the frontline, noting that despite the missile's potential, the damage seems limited. He questions whether the strike was intentionally aimed to avoid major damage. He then presents information from sources like PS01, who describes the missile as an RS ICBM, marking its first use in combat.
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MIRV Technology and International Treaties
🎦 04:00-05:44⏩
Jonathan delves into the technology used in the Dnipro strike, stating that the missile might have been equipped with MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles), allowing it to deploy multiple warheads. He highlights that international treaties require countries to give notice before ICBM launches, suggesting that this might explain the earlier embassy closures. He analyses footage that appears to show multiple reentry vehicles. He also highlights the importance of intercepting such missiles before they deploy their warheads.
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Debating the ICBM Payload
🎦 05:44-06:17⏩
Jonathan discusses the possibility that the ICBM might have carried dummy warheads or weight simulators instead of live explosives. He cites Fabian Hoffman, who expresses doubt about Russia having developed functional ICBM-range conventional warheads. Despite the uncertainty about the payload, Jonathan reiterates that this launch is undoubtedly a significant signal from Russia.
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Russia’s Message and Ukrainian Resolve
🎦 06:17-07:19⏩
Jonathan analyses the message behind the ICBM launch, interpreting it as a warning shot aimed at deterring Ukraine from conducting further strikes into Russian territory. He contends that despite this, Ukraine is unlikely to be intimidated and will probably continue using long-range weapons. Jonathan reiterates that escalation is initiated by the aggressor, in this case, Russia, and not the victim, Ukraine.
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De-escalation and the Path to Peace
🎦 07:19-07:48⏩
Jonathan discusses the concept of de-escalation, emphasizing that true de-escalation necessitates the aggressor, Russia, to scale back its attacks rather than expecting the victim, Ukraine, to reduce its defense. He criticizes those demanding de-escalation from Ukraine, arguing that such demands empower Russia and legitimize their territorial ambitions. He asserts that peace can only be achieved if Russia withdraws from Ukraine.
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Wrap up
🎦 07:48-08:11⏩
Jonathan encourages viewers to share their perspectives on the use of ICBMs and whether this event signifies a new phase in the war or human history. He concludes by thanking the audience and signing off.
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