Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"And it's very easy to get desensitized to this and normalize what you're seeing and these are human beings right? ...And i've never seen human beings be thrown so far and so fast ...It was absolutely horrific."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:08⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, a Ukraine War frontline update for 12th April 2024.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Map Update: Understanding Defensive Lines

🎦 00:08-02:06⏩

Jonathan clarifies the meaning of the lines on the map, emphasizing they represent defensive positions and acknowledging JR's mapping contributions. He explains that the coloured lines represent the assessed areas of Russian control, highlighting the significance of 'grey zones' that signify contested areas or areas lacking clear control where both sides might operate or are subject to shelling. Jonathan notes that this interpretation, especially concerning grey zones, differs between various mappers like Syriac Maps, which leans pro-Russian.

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Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna Front: No Changes and Ukrainian Strength

🎦 02:06-02:08⏩

Jonathan points out the static frontline along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna axis, viewing this lack of movement as positive news for Ukraine.

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Donetsk: Terny Area - Russian Advance and Mapping Discrepancies

🎦 02:08-04:47⏩

Jonathan delves into Russian advances east of Terny in Donetsk, referencing geolocated footage from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). He highlights the discrepancies between different mappers, particularly contrasting Syriac Maps' tendency to depict areas where Russian forces are present as under their control with Andrew Perpetua's more cautious approach, recognizing such instances as potential grey zones. Jonathan suggests that while Russian forces might have conducted an attack in the region, it doesn't necessarily equate to established control. He emphasizes the importance of interpreting mapping data cautiously.

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Siversk Front: Russian Advance Towards Vienka and Topographical Challenges

🎦 04:47-05:49⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to the Siversk front, acknowledging Russian advancements northwest of Brest-Vesely and highlighting their push along the railway line towards Vienka. He analyzes the terrain, using 3D mapping to reveal an undulating landscape that poses challenges for straightforward military operations.

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Siversk Front: Russian Progress, Bilya Hora & Spirne Updates

🎦 05:49-07:52⏩

Jonathan provides a detailed update on the Siversk front, noting Russian progress and their objective of reaching the strategically important town of Siversk. He points out that while Russian forces are advancing, their progress has stalled near Spirne, and Syriac Maps has even retracted its initial mapping lines that depicted more extensive Russian control. Jonathan believes that Bilya Hora is a critical point for Ukraine's defense and speculates on the difficulty Russians face in navigating the terrain, drawing parallels with the failed Russian river crossing at Balakliya. He concludes that the southern part of the Siversk front is where the Russians will likely concentrate their efforts.

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Bakhmut Front: Stalemate and Intense Fighting in Ivanovske & Chasiv Yar

🎦 07:52-08:11⏩

Jonathan reports a stalemate in Bakhmut, noting the lack of movement is interesting while acknowledging the ongoing, intense fighting. He observes that the situation in areas like Ivanovske and Chasiv Yar is characterized by sporadic bursts of activity and suggests referring to the ISW report for a deeper understanding.

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Bakhmut Front: ISW Analysis and Russian Gains West of Ivanovske

🎦 08:11-09:10⏩

Jonathan reviews the ISW's assessment, confirming the absence of significant changes on the Siversk front. He highlights the ISW's report of Russian advances west of Ivanovske along the T0504 Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway, potentially posing a challenge for Ukrainian forces. Jonathan expresses curiosity about future developments and seeks geolocation data to track the situation.

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Chasiv Yar - Ivanovske: Russian Vehicle Losses and Ukrainian Counteroffensive

🎦 09:10-11:25⏩

Jonathan analyzes footage depicting destroyed military vehicles in the Chasiv Yar-Ivanovske region, emphasizing the substantial losses suffered by Russian forces. He speculates that these losses likely result from a Russian offensive push westward along the highway from Ivanovske, suggesting they might not necessarily signify territorial gains but rather the intensity of the fighting. Jonathan highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian defenses in inflicting heavy casualties on the advancing Russian troops, highlighting the area as a potential "kill box." He discusses the possibility of a Ukrainian withdrawal from Ivanovske while emphasizing that it doesn't necessarily translate into Russian control due to the area's vulnerability to Ukrainian artillery and guided bombs. He references Greg Terry's insights, who suggests that Ukrainian forces might have strategically withdrawn from Ivanovske, but it doesn't equate to a Russian advantage.

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Chasiv Yar: Impact of Guided Bombs and Russian Tactical Shift

🎦 11:25-14:17⏩

Jonathan reads a report from pro-Russian source 'Suret Matt', detailing the heavy bombardment of Chasiv Yar, particularly highlighting the use of guided glide bombs, which have significantly altered the dynamics of the conflict. Jonathan notes the effectiveness of these munitions, drawing parallels with their use in Avdiivka and along the northern border, while acknowledging the strategic shift they represent in Russian tactics. He emphasizes that while these weapons are undoubtedly inflicting damage and accelerating Russian advances, they might not necessarily lead to a complete collapse of Ukrainian defenses. Jonathan contrasts the situation in Chasiv Yar with Bakhmut, noting that while Bakhmut endured heavy artillery fire, Chasiv Yar is facing a relentless aerial bombardment with larger munitions.

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Avdiivka: Russian Advances and Strategic Importance of River Terrain

🎦 14:17-16:19⏩

Jonathan reports on the Avdiivka salient, where he observes worrying Russian advances, particularly their presence in Novokalynove and the capture of areas around Berdychi. He expresses concern over Russian control extending north towards the river's source, as it provides them with a strategic advantage to exert pressure from the north on level ground. Jonathan emphasizes the river's significance as a natural barrier, using the 3D map to illustrate the elevation differences and their impact on the frontline.

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Avdiivka: Novokalynove Clashes and Intensified Fighting

🎦 16:19-17:18⏩

Jonathan analyzes the fighting in Novokalynove, where Russian forces are attempting to push forward. He cites a pro-Russian source 'Rebar' who confirms Russian presence in Novokalynove and their occupation of plantations south of the settlement, acknowledging Ukrainian counterattacks but indicating ongoing urban warfare. Jonathan notes that while the Russians are making progress, it comes at the cost of heavy fighting and Ukrainian resistance. He ponders the strategic reasoning behind the Russian advance in this area, questioning whether it is part of a broader encirclement effort or a separate northward push.

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Southern Front Update: Umanske, Krasnohorivka, Marinka and Novomykolaivka

🎦 17:18-19:00⏩

Jonathan delivers updates from the southern front, reporting a relatively quiet day around Umanske with no significant Russian movement. He highlights the lack of changes in areas like Krasnohorivka, Marinka and Novomykolaivka, briefly consulting the ISW report to confirm his observations. Jonathan acknowledges the ongoing fierce fighting in these areas despite the absence of major breakthroughs, suggesting that the ISW report doesn't offer much new information beyond what he has already presented from other sources.

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Southern Front: Urozhaine and Russian Attacks

🎦 19:00-22:27⏩

Jonathan turns his attention towards Urozhaine on the southern front, focusing on Russian activities along the Mokri Yaly River. He references footage depicting a Russian attack south of Urozhaine, highlighting Ukrainian drone observations, artillery strikes, and FPV drone engagements. Jonathan briefly mentions witnessing a disturbing video of a Russian armored vehicle striking a mine, reflecting on the human cost of the conflict and the horrors of war. He geolocates the attack, pointing to a specific tree line where the Russians are concentrating their assault, illustrating their attempts to advance into the grey zone. Jonathan analyzes the footage, showing the locations where Russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) were hit by Ukrainian artillery and emphasizes that the Russians, despite their efforts, have not achieved a decisive breakthrough.

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Southern Front: Robotyne, Russian Advances and Mapping Comparisons

🎦 22:27-24:44⏩

Jonathan moves on to Robotyne, citing geolocated footage from three days prior that indicates marginal Russian advances within the western part of the settlement. He displays footage of a destroyed Russian APC in Robotyne, suggesting that Suret Matt's mapping might offer a more accurate depiction of the situation compared to other maps, as the geolocation indicates a deeper Russian penetration into the grey zone than initially thought. Jonathan speculates that while Russian forces might have pushed into the settlement, their control is likely limited to trench lines, and they are vulnerable to Ukrainian counterattacks when advancing along roads. He concludes by observing that the Russians are employing a strategy of grinding down Ukrainian defenses in Robotyne, achieving incremental gains at a significant cost in terms of manpower and equipment.

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Dnipro River: Russian Advances and Ukrainian Bridgehead Defense

🎦 24:44-27:40⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to the Dnipro River, citing the ISW's report of recent Russian advances near the Ukrainian bridgehead. He highlights geolocated footage from April 11th showing Russian forces operating within Krynky, acknowledging the concerning nature of this development for Ukraine. Jonathan emphasizes that the entire area remains a contested grey zone, with neither side asserting full control. He speculates on the Ukrainian strategy in the region, suggesting their primary goal might be to inflict attrition on Russian forces and equipment rather than to make significant territorial gains, drawing attention to the substantial Russian losses reported by Ukrainian sources. Jonathan ponders whether the Ukrainians will maintain their presence in Krynky or strategically withdraw.

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Dnipro River: Russian Activity on Velikiy Potemkin Island

🎦 27:40-30:13⏩

Jonathan discusses Russian activities on Velikiy Potemkin Island, citing geolocated footage suggesting a recent expansion of their operations on the southern part of the island. He compares different map assessments, pointing out discrepancies between Suret Matt's depiction and Andrew Perpetua's, who still designates the area as a grey zone. Jonathan highlights the presence of numerous settlements on the island, challenging the notion that it's sparsely populated. He concludes by stating that both Russian and Ukrainian forces are actively engaged in fighting on Velikiy Potemkin Island, underscoring the strategic importance of this waterway.

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Dnipro River: Ukrainian Casualties and Strategic Implications

🎦 30:13-31:45⏩

Jonathan revisits the ISW report, which confirms continued fighting near Krynky. He cites a statement from Natalia Humeniuk, spokesperson for Ukraine's Southern Operational Command, who claims that Ukrainian forces are inflicting heavy casualties on Russian assault groups attempting to land on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. Jonathan notes the significant implication of these claims, suggesting that if true, it indicates a favorable casualty ratio for Ukraine, potentially justifying their continued presence in Krynky. He concludes by reiterating the strategic significance of this bridgehead for Ukraine, not necessarily for territorial gains but for its role in attriting Russian forces.

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Black Sea: Ukrainian Raids and Strategic Importance of Offshore Platforms

🎦 31:45-34:43⏩

Jonathan discusses Russian sources claiming to have repelled Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups attempting landings at various locations in the Black Sea, including an oil rig, the Tendrivska Spit, and a drilling platform in the "Stormove" gas field. Jonathan expresses skepticism about the feasibility of surprise attacks in such a heavily monitored environment but acknowledges the Ukrainians' previous success with a special forces operation in the Olenivka-Mayak area. He highlights the strategic importance of these offshore platforms, particularly their potential use as sites for air defense systems and reconnaissance equipment, which could hinder Russian operations in the region and bolster Odessa's defenses.

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US Politics: Mike Johnson, Ukraine Aid, and MAGA Influence

🎦 35:05-37:31⏩

Jonathan segues into US politics, expressing concern over the potential implications of Mike Johnson's meeting with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago. He discusses rumors that Johnson might appoint Marjorie Taylor Greene as an advisor, interpreting it as a capitulation to the far-right faction within the Republican Party. Jonathan believes that this alliance could jeopardize future Ukraine aid packages, as both Johnson and Greene have expressed opposition to supporting Ukraine. He analyzes the potential scenarios, suggesting that Johnson is facing pressure from both pro-Trump Republicans and those advocating for continued Ukraine aid. Jonathan concludes by emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding future US support for Ukraine, suggesting that aid might only be secured if a discharge petition, which has been gaining traction, is signed.

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Wrap up

🎦 37:31-37:48⏩

Jonathan thanks his viewers for watching, encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He acknowledges the volume of content covered and expresses hope that it has been informative.

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