Ukraine War Update NEWS (20230306): Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
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"If you'd had free access to Ukraine from the sea, from allowing all of the Russian fleet to do what it possibly could do, this war would have been really, really different."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides his usual caveats that the information in the video may not be 100% accurate and could be propaganda, as Russia does not produce the same daily figures as Ukraine. All claims should be verified with other sources.
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Russian Losses
According to Ukrainian figures, Russian losses for the previous day (likely lower due to the "Sunday effect") were:
- 650 liquidated personnel
- 9 tanks
- 11 APCs
- 7 artillery systems
- 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems
- 15 drones (including Shahed-136 drones)
- 8 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 2 pieces of special equipment
Strikes and Fires
- In Avdiivka, an image shows 6 pieces of Russian equipment (5 IFVs and a tank) lost in a 20 square meter area
- 13 out of 15 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight were shot down, a lower interception rate than the 100% seen previously
- In temporarily occupied Volnovakha, a Russian command center was leveled by HIMARS
- In Kreminna, a Russian base was destroyed by a Tochka-U missile, a significant development as Ukraine was thought to have run out of these substantial missiles
- Explosions were reported in Melitopol, an area Russia uses to train newly mobilized troops. The exiled mayor claims two Russian war warehouses were hit
- Footage shows a Russian observation tower in the Bryansk region being hit by a Ukrainian special forces drone
- Early morning explosions were reported in Belgorod, with Russia claiming to have shot down 3 missiles
- A major fire broke out at a coke and gas plant in Vidnoye, near Moscow
Military Aid
There was no significant military aid news, a notable change from the high volume reported in recent months. However, the sanctioned Russian cargo ship Sparta 4 crossed the Bosphorus Strait into the Black Sea and docked at Novorossiysk, possibly carrying military hardware. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of Turkey closing the straits to Russian naval ships, a huge advantage for Ukraine that has hampered Russia's efforts and helped Ukraine maintain control of Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts.
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UK Defence Intelligence Update
- Russia has continued to respond to heavy armored vehicle losses by deploying 60-year-old T-62 main battle tanks, with the possibility that even Russia's premier tank force, the 1st Guards Tank Army, will be re-equipped with T-62s instead of the next-generation T-14 Armata
- BTR-50 armored personnel carriers from 1954 have also been identified in Ukraine for the first time
- Since summer 2022, approximately 800 T-62s have been taken from storage, some receiving upgraded sighting systems to improve effectiveness at night
- However, these vintage vehicles have vulnerabilities on the modern battlefield, including the absence of modern explosive reactive armor
Geopolitical Updates
- Germany's Scholz says China has declared it will not deliver weapons to Russia, though declarations do not always align with actions
- In Estonia, the far-right populist party EKRE, which had been growing and stated they would not continue military support to Ukraine if elected, lost seats in the election. The staunchly pro-Ukraine Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and her center-right party won with 31.4% of the vote, the most in Estonian history
Bits and Bobs - Bakhmut
- Michael Kofman and Rob Lee, respected Russia experts, report that the situation in Bakhmut looks difficult for Ukraine due to artillery ammo shortages, contested lines of communication, and unfavorable terrain. The fight does not play to Ukraine's advantages
- There are indications that Ukraine has been conducting an "operation withdrawal" from Bakhmut over the past week, with trickles of troops leaving while maintaining positions, likely to be followed by a rear guard action pulling out in the coming days
- The Kyiv Independent published a critical piece on Ukraine's force provision in Bakhmut, with soldiers reporting issues similar to undertrained and underequipped Russian mobilized troops, such as being sent to the front line without training or enough equipment, poor communication, and insufficient drone, mortar and artillery support
- While successful Ukrainian drone footage from Bakhmut provides a biased view, the high rate of drones being shot down due to Russian air defenses and electronic warfare is a significant challenge impacting troop support
- The issues in Bakhmut align with the reported Ukrainian withdrawal, as Russian forces have been able to overwhelm Ukrainian troops by "throwing humans at the problem"
The Hague Trial
The International Center for the Investigation of Crimes of the Russian Federation in The Hague will open this summer, according to the Ukrainian Prosecutor General. This significant move could mean Putin will not be able to leave Russia without risking arrest for war crimes in countries covered by the court's jurisdiction.
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Wrap Up
Jonathan notes it was a fairly quiet day for news in some aspects like military aid and geopolitics, likely due to the "Sunday effect". He will be looking at the front lines for any changes in upcoming videos. He asks viewers to like, subscribe and share the video.
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