Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other Christmas News
Table of Contents 📖
"They [the Ukrainians] are doing things to the Russians that the Russians seem to be unable to do to the Ukrainians."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:35⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to ATP Geopolitics and begins by expressing frustration at having to re-record the video due to a muted microphone. He notes that this is part one of the Ukraine War News Update for the 26th of December.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Significant Russian Losses
🎦 00:35-05:10⏩
Jonathan delves into the Ukrainian General Staff's report detailing heavy Russian losses: - 1,010 personnel - 22 tanks - 37 armoured personnel vehicles - 19 artillery systems - 1 warship and 1 boat He highlights the consistent losses in personnel and the spike in equipment destruction, suggesting aggressive Ukrainian offensive operations. Jonathan emphasizes the need to assess the accuracy of casualty figures and argues that while the overall figures seem plausible over time, the numbers for aircraft and helicopters might be inflated due to early-war exaggerations. He supports his argument by referencing visual evidence from sources like Dell, who meticulously documents Russian equipment losses based on open-source data. The data reveals losses exceeding $50 million in a single day, primarily from destroyed tanks and APVs, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on Russian logistics.
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Andrew Perpetua's Loss List Analysis
🎦 05:10-08:41⏩
Jonathan analyses Andrew Perpetua's meticulously curated daily loss list, which aggregates information from both Russian and Ukrainian sources, maintaining a roughly 2:1 ratio favouring Russian sources to ensure balanced reporting. The list reveals a stark disparity: Russian losses significantly outweigh Ukrainian ones, with a 7:1 ratio. Key takeaways from the list:
- Russian Losses: A substantial list including a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher, three T-80 and T-72 tanks, several BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, APCs, trucks, and a significant number of civilian vehicles repurposed for military use.
- Ukrainian Losses: Relatively minor, comprising a couple of older tanks – a P64 and another unidentified model – categorised as damaged rather than destroyed, along with a single destroyed boat.
Jonathan concludes that this trend of disproportionate losses reinforces the notion that the Ukrainian General Staff figures, particularly those regarding equipment, hold a degree of accuracy. He emphasises the significant role of drones in inflicting casualties, now accounting for 40% of Russian equipment losses – a substantial increase from almost zero at the war's outset. The remaining 60% are attributed to other factors like artillery, MLRS, and unknown causes. He estimates that the actual number of losses inflicted by drones is likely higher than reported due to delays in uploading footage to the internet, further supporting the validity of the General Staff's figures.
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Russian Disinformation: Fabricated Ukrainian F-16 Losses
🎦 08:41-10:45⏩
Jonathan analyses recent Russian claims of significant retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian targets, calling out their falsity. The claims, which included the destruction of four Su jets, six F-16s, and multiple expensive air defence systems, are debunked by the simple logic that if Russia knew the locations of these assets, they would have targeted them preemptively rather than waiting for retaliation. Jonathan then provides specific evidence of Russian disinformation, highlighting their use of a 2018 photo of a Belgian F-16 that crashed during training as "proof" of destroying a Ukrainian F-16. He emphasizes that Ukraine has not yet deployed F-16s in combat as pilots are still undergoing training, making the Russian claims implausible.
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Ukrainian Air Defence Success: Downed Russian Jets
🎦 10:45-11:58⏩
Jonathan discusses a report from a Ukrainian blogger close to military leadership, alleging that several Russian Su-34 and Su-24M fighter jets shot down in December were targeted using Ukrainian-made air defence systems. While acknowledging the need for cautious optimism and lack of independent verification, Jonathan stresses the potential significance of this claim. If true, it signifies a major development in Ukraine's defence capabilities, demonstrating their ability to manufacture and deploy effective air defence systems domestically. This, he argues, represents a huge victory for Ukraine, highlighting their growing self-sufficiency in defence production.
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Russian Air Activity Decline: Fear of Ukrainian Air Defences?
🎦 11:58-14:05⏩
Jonathan observes a significant decrease in Russian air activity in certain areas following the downing of their Su-34 jets. He notes:
- Southern Front: No Russian aviation bombs have been dropped on Kinburn Spit for two days, suggesting a halt in VKS (Russian Aerospace Forces) operations due to fear of further losses.
- Eastern Front (Donetsk region): A similar absence of Russian aircraft activity between Marinka and Novomokrivka since the downing of an Su-34 near Mariupol.
He concludes that the loss of multiple aircraft in quick succession has made the Russians more cautious, potentially impacting their ability to provide air support to ground troops. Jonathan then highlights an explosion at an airfield in Yeysk, a Russian town on the coast across from Mariupol. While unconfirmed, there are suggestions that the explosion resulted in the destruction of yet another Russian aircraft. Locals, able to distinguish the sound of the explosion from that of a sonic boom, cast doubt on Russian claims attributing the explosion to a plane reaching hypersonic speed. Jonathan concludes by emphasizing the potential significance of these events, stating that if confirmed, they would indicate a loss of six Russian planes along the front line and occupied territories within a week – a considerable blow to their air capabilities.
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Ukrainian Losses: Alleged Bus Ambush and the Need for Smaller Vehicles
🎦 14:05-16:26⏩
Jonathan addresses an unverified report from a Ukrainian source claiming that a bus carrying Ukrainian soldiers on leave for the Christmas holidays was ambushed, resulting in the deaths of 108 soldiers. Key Points:
- Source: A Ukrainian source claiming to be close to the incident.
- Location: Near Avdiivka, where a brigade allowed soldiers to return home for seven days.
- Circumstances: The soldiers were travelling on a bus, having drawn lots to determine who could take leave.
While Ukrainian authorities vehemently deny the report, Jonathan speculates that there may be some truth to it, citing previous instances where Ukrainian sources have been more transparent about their losses. He emphasizes the importance of smaller, more agile vehicles for troop transport, referencing a recent conversation with Jonathan Fink. Using SUVs instead of buses could minimize casualties in such ambushes. Jonathan acknowledges the potential impact on morale if the incident is true and understands the Ukrainian government's desire to suppress information that might cast a negative light on their operations. Despite this, he leans towards believing there's an element of truth to the report, given the strong denials from Ukrainian officials.
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Front Line Updates: Russian Convoy Destruction and Low Morale
🎦 16:26-17:44⏩
Jonathan briefly touches upon ongoing front-line developments:
- Robotyne (Southern Front): Despite facing a stalemate in their counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces have inflicted heavy losses on Russian troops, capturing nine soldiers who reportedly surrendered voluntarily.
- Video Evidence: A surge in footage depicting the destruction of Russian military convoys, indicating the ferocity of Ukrainian attacks.
He also notes a decrease in reports of low morale among Russian soldiers in recent weeks but points to a recent uptick in such instances, citing the emergence of videos showing Russian troops being subjected to harsh punishments for disobeying orders.
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Feodosia Ship Explosion: Confirmation of Destruction and Ukrainian Claims
🎦 17:44-23:46⏩
Jonathan revisits the overnight missile attack on Feodosia, Crimea, where a Russian landing ship, the Novocheboksarsk, was reportedly damaged. He provides an update based on analysis of satellite imagery and open-source intelligence, confirming that the vessel was, in fact, destroyed in the attack. Key Points:
- Target: The Novocheboksarsk, a Project 775 (Ropucha-class) landing ship built in Poland in 1987.
- Destruction: The ship was initially reported as damaged, but subsequent imagery analysis confirms its complete destruction.
- Explosions: Eyewitness accounts and videos captured massive explosions, consistent with secondary detonations, likely caused by munitions onboard.
- Speculation: Some sources suggest the ship may have been carrying Iranian-supplied Shahed drones, leading to the large explosions.
- Ukrainian Claims: A spokesperson for Ukraine's Southern Command stated that the destruction of the ship was only "50% of the story," hinting at further unrevealed details and potential successes.
Jonathan highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes against Russian naval assets, citing this incident as further evidence of the Black Sea Fleet's vulnerability. He also points to the strategic implications of targeting these ships, which are crucial for supplying Russian forces in Crimea and potentially for any future operations in the Black Sea region.
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Overnight Drone Attacks and Explosions in Crimea
🎦 23:46-25:03⏩
Jonathan wraps up the military news:
- Drone Attacks: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 13 out of 19 Russian drones launched overnight, a lower interception rate than usual. He acknowledges that even a single drone reaching its target can inflict damage.
- Explosions in Crimea: Explosions reported in northern Crimea, particularly around Armyansk and the Mariupol district, suggest ongoing Ukrainian strikes.
He ends this section with a reminder that the situation remains fluid and more information will likely emerge.
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Alexei Navalny: Resurfaces in Yamal Penal Colony
🎦 25:03-26:09⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the case of Alexei Navalny, the imprisoned Russian opposition leader. After three weeks of uncertainty about his whereabouts, Navalny has resurfaced in Penal Colony No. 3, known as "Polar Wolf", in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District. Jonathan details Navalny's journey:
- Transfer Route: Vladimir to Moscow to Chelyabinsk to the Yucatan to Kirov to Volkata to Karp.
- Current Status: In good health and spirits, referring to himself as "the new Santa Claus."
Jonathan welcomes the news of Navalny's resurfacing, indicating relief that he is alive and seemingly well despite the harsh conditions of his imprisonment.
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Russian Military Morale: Soldiers Stripped and Locked in Pit
🎦 26:09-26:47⏩
Jonathan presents a disturbing video showing a group of Russian soldiers stripped naked and locked in a pit overnight as punishment for alleged insubordination. He highlights this as a stark illustration of the brutal treatment endured by some Russian soldiers and suggests it signifies deep-rooted issues within the Russian military structure.
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New Ukrainian Mobilisation Law: Lowering the Draft Age
🎦 26:47-28:05⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukraine's newly drafted mobilisation law, focusing on the key change: lowering the conscription age from 27 to 25. While acknowledging the need for increased manpower, he expresses concerns about the ramifications:
- Impact on Students: The lower age limit could disrupt education and lead to brain drain.
- Economic Consequences: Conscripting a larger portion of the workforce might hinder economic productivity.
Jonathan cites Zelensky's own concerns about the potential economic strain and the overall cost of the war effort.
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Wrap Up
🎦 28:05-28:48⏩
Jonathan concludes by expressing gratitude for viewers' continued support, especially given the recent decline in viewership, which he attributes to YouTube's algorithms. He specifically thanks Don and other viewers for their generous membership gifts during his recent live stream with Jonathan Fink. Jonathan signs off with a reminder to like, subscribe, and share the video to help combat the algorithm.
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