Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update

"I think the public lacks understanding of how many casualties occur in Ukraine every single day. I'm not going to provide statistics, but losing 1,000 men over nine months is really not that bad, especially in relation to the damage they inflicted."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-02:42⏩

Jonathan kicks off the video by discussing ATP Distilled, a new website which uses AI to provide summaries of his videos and other content like ISW reports. The website also features a search function which allows users to search for specific topics across all videos. He's very happy with the result and thanks Benny Pye who created it. Jonathan explains that the map key is at the beginning of the video, and notes that there's been quite a lot of activity since the last update. He observes that the pins are mainly in favour of the Russians.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Starytsia (Kharkiv Oblast): Ukrainian Push Back

🎦 03:05-05:41⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukrainians have pushed back Russian forces in the east of the northern sectors, in Starytsia, to the southwest of Vovchansk. He notes that, interestingly, this gain wasn't reflected in the Deep State Map or Andrew Perpetua's mapping, but was shown on Syriac map. Jonathan suggests this could be a case of rejigging of already established positions, rather than a new push, as footage of the area under Ukrainian control dates back a month. This leads Jonathan to question the accuracy of maps that rely heavily on Russian MOD data. He highlights that while these maps are sometimes ahead of the curve in predicting Russian advances, they often overestimate the territory held by Russia.

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Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast): No Change But Discrepancies Between Maps

🎦 05:20-05:41⏩

Jonathan reports no change in Vovchansk, but points out further discrepancies in the mapping data. Syriac maps indicate that Russian forces have advanced south of the Vovcha River, a claim not supported by other maps. He suggests there's some evidence to support the possibility of Russian activity in the region, but remains unconvinced that they have established a robust control over any territory there.

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Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna (Kharkiv/Luhansk Oblasts): Minor Ukrainian Gains

🎦 05:46-06:27⏩

Moving on to the northeastern axis, Jonathan reports no change in the northern part of the frontline from Kupyansk to Svatove to Kreminna. He highlights a minor change around Terny, to the northwest of Kreminna, where Syriac Maps indicates Ukrainian forces might have succeeded in pushing Russian troops back. Jonathan observes that Syriac Maps is the only source to report this development, and advises caution in interpreting this information.

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Northern Bakhmut: Russian Advance Near Kalinivka

🎦 06:27-07:52⏩

Moving to the northern Soledar Bakhmut frontline, Jonathan reports no change. However, he observes significant changes, reported by all map sources, around Kalinivka, where Russia has been attacking on three axes towards Chasiv Yar. Jonathan describes the three prongs of the Russian advance: through the village of Bohdanivka and then Kalinivka; the canal micro district; and finally, through Ivanivske and then the wooded area of the nature reserve. He then describes how the Russians could use a culvert near the nature reserve to cross the canal, or another culvert near Kalinivka. He notes that Russian forces have made substantial, but not unexpected, gains around Kalinivka as they clear the area on the other side of the canal, where Ukrainian forces had been holding out. Jonathan then points out discrepancies between the maps north-west of Bohdanivka, where Syriac Maps shows greater Russian territorial control compared to Deep State Map. He suggests this discrepancy of about 2km probably represents a grey zone.

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Klishchiivka (Donetsk Oblast): Discrepancies and Potential Rejigging of Russian Control

🎦 08:01-09:27⏩

Jonathan expresses confusion regarding the situation around Klishchiivka, noting a discrepancy in Andrew Perpetua's mapping. Perpetua's map showed a large Russian salient reaching down towards Klishchiivka, before reverting back a day later. Jonathan questions the accuracy of this depiction, highlighting that Syriac Maps also significantly overestimates Russian control in this area. He attributes this discrepancy to Syriac Maps' reliance on Russian sources and suggests that the actual frontline probably lies somewhere within this contested zone.

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Zalizhne (Donetsk Oblast): Russian Advance

🎦 09:28-10:00⏩

Moving down to the Turetsk area, where Russian forces have been applying pressure from the east of Turetsk and from the south of New York, Jonathan reports gains by Russian forces in Zalizhne. He notes Syriac Maps' report that the Russian army has continued to advance in Zalizhne, taking control of School Number 13 and a series of houses along Shkilna Street.

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New York (Donetsk Oblast): Fluctuations in Control and a Potential Ukrainian Counter-attack

🎦 10:00-13:46⏩

Jonathan describes the "funny goings on" around New York, where the maps show significant fluctuations in control. Initially, Deep State Map indicated extensive Russian control, pushing out from a salient into New York. However, this was subsequently revised to show Ukrainian gains, pushing the line back east, but with a slight Russian gain to the northeast. Andrew Perpetua's map also reflects this pushback. This leads Jonathan to speculate that a sizeable Ukrainian counter-attack has taken place in this region. He acknowledges a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) based on geolocated footage from two days prior that seems to support the claim of Ukrainian advances southeast of New York. However, he questions the ISW's interpretation of this footage, suggesting that the area in question was never definitively under Russian control. Jonathan emphasises the dynamic nature of the situation around New York and speculates that Ukrainian forces might be actively pushing back against Russian advances.

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South of Kostyantynivka (Donetsk Oblast): Russian Advances Raise Concerns

🎦 13:52-15:06⏩

Jonathan expresses concern about the Russian advance south of Kostyantynivka, noting their progress towards the T0504 road connecting Kostyantynivka to Pokrovsk. He points out that this road is already under Russian fire control. According to various maps, the Russians have made gains in this region, advancing towards Voznesenka from the direction of Novooleksandrivka, and also pushing south to Lozove, taking control of the settlement according to Deep State and Syriac Maps. Jonathan observes that these are fairly substantial gains for the Russians.

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Novoselivka Persha (Donetsk Oblast): Significant Russian Gains

🎦 15:10-15:46⏩

Jonathan shifts focus to the area around Novoselivka Persha, where he observes Russian gains to the north. He notes that Syriac Maps, in particular, shows significant Russian territorial gains in the area, claiming that the Russian army has advanced inside Novoselivka Persha, gaining control of 60% of the location over the past 24 hours.

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Avdiivka (Donetsk Oblast): Minor Russian Gains and a Rejigging of Control Near Krasnohorivka

🎦 15:46-16:40⏩

Moving south to the area around Avdiivka, Jonathan observes very small gains for the Russians, according to Deep State Map, just north of the Karlivka Reservoir, at the southern end of the Avdiivka bridgehead. He then points out an area southwest of Krasnohorivka where Syriac Maps shows a reduction in the territory held by the Russians, particularly along a railway line. Jonathan suggests that this could be a correction of previously overestimated Russian gains by Syriac Maps, or potentially the result of a Ukrainian pushback south of Krasnohorivka.

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Marinka - Pobeda - Heorhiivka - Novomykhailivka (Donetsk Oblast): No Change

🎦 16:40-17:17⏩

Continuing south, past Marinka, Jonathan observes that there have been relatively few changes in the frontline over the past few weeks, encompassing areas such as Pobeda, Marinka, Heorhiivka, Novomykhailivka and Paraskoviivka (towards Kostyantynivka). He expresses surprise at the lack of Russian progress towards Kostyantynivka after their capture of Novomykhailivka. Jonathan speculates that the Russians may have suffered heavy losses during the capture of Novomykhailivka - 320 pieces of equipment and numerous casualties according to reports - which may have significantly hampered their progress in the area.

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Vuhledar (Donetsk Oblast): Russian Efforts to Interdict Supply Lines

🎦 17:17-19:20⏩

Despite the lack of progress near Kostyantynivka, Jonathan notes that the Russians have made gains further south. He recounts their earlier struggles to capture Vuhledar from the south, attributing this to Vuhledar's elevated position, which provided Ukrainian forces with a tactical advantage. From their positions in Vuhledar, Ukrainians had a clear line of sight for their anti-tank guided missiles and artillery, inflicting heavy losses on the advancing Russian forces. The extensive use of mines by Ukrainian forces in this area further contributed to the Russian difficulties. Jonathan then describes the alternative approach seemingly adopted by the Russians, which involves bypassing Vuhledar. By capturing Marinka and Novomykhailivka, they aimed to reach Kostyantynivka and then advance south to take Vuhledar from a more favorable position. However, the heavy losses sustained at Novomykhailivka seem to have disrupted this plan. Jonathan observes that the Russians now appear to be focusing on an area halfway between Vuhledar and Novomykhailivka, potentially aiming to interdict the road passing through the fields to the northeast of the mining area. He notes their consistent gains in this region. According to Syriac Maps, the Russians have made advances northwest of Volodymyrivka, reaching the road between Vuhledar and Kostyantynivka, designated as the T05-24. Although they have not yet established a foothold on the road itself, their proximity, less than a mile away, poses a significant threat to Ukrainian supply lines to Vuhledar, which is a cause for concern.

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Southern Frontline: Renewed Russian Advances Near Marfapil

🎦 19:26-20:34⏩

Turning to the southern frontline, Jonathan notes slight changes around Marfapil. He clarifies that recent advances west of Marfapil, originally attributed to Andrew Perpetua's map, are in fact also reflected in an updated Syriac map. This agreement between the two sources suggests the reliability of the information and confirms that Russian forces have indeed made gains in the area. Syriac map reports that the Russian army has restarted its advances on the Hliadai axis, capturing several positions west of Marfapil. Jonathan highlights the strategic significance of this development as Marfapil lies on the route to Hliadai, a settlement that has been subjected to intense Russian artillery fire.

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Krenka (Kherson Oblast): Addressing Public Misconceptions About Ukrainian Losses

🎦 20:37-23:06⏩

Jonathan addresses the public criticism surrounding Ukrainian losses in the Krenka area. He argues that the public's reaction to reports of significant Ukrainian casualties – over 1000 troops killed or missing – lacked context and understanding of the broader military situation. He emphasizes that such losses, spread over a period of nine months, are not unusual in the context of intense warfare and must be weighed against the strategic gains and losses inflicted on the enemy. He highlights that the Ukrainian bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, which they held for a significant period, inflicted disproportionately high casualties and equipment losses on Russian forces attempting to dislodge them. Jonathan therefore contends that the Ukrainian operation at Krenka served a valuable strategic purpose and should not be judged solely on casualty figures.

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Wrap Up

🎦 23:06-23:39⏩

Jonathan concludes by reiterating his request for viewers to check out ATP Distilled and thanking Benny Pye for his work on the project. He acknowledges the significant role played by AI in developing the website but also emphasizes the human effort required to program and guide the AI, highlighting Benny's expertise.

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