Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Bakhmut, Kasparov, IFV Stats, Russian Ammo Stocks
Table of Contents 📖
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"If we don't manage to return to Europe, we will become a satellite state of China. Beijing is just waiting for Russia to collapse."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides an update on the situation in Bakhmut, noting some potentially bad news that the village of Klishchivka may have been lost to Russian forces, though this is unconfirmed. He also mentions a claim that the town of Sil has been captured. However, he emphasizes the need to take these reports with a "grain of salt" until verified.
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Equipment Donations to Ukraine
- The UK has announced it will send 14 Challenger 2 tanks, 8 AS90 self-propelled guns (with 22 more later), and hundreds of armoured vehicles to Ukraine
- Denmark is donating 19 Piranha 3 APCs to Moldova, which were originally intended for Ukraine but blocked by Switzerland
- Jonathan discusses the capabilities of the US Bradley infantry fighting vehicle being provided to Ukraine, highlighting its advanced features that will greatly benefit Ukrainian forces
Infantry Fighting Vehicle Statistics
Jonathan analyzes data from Oryx on Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses, noting that Russia has lost 3-4 times more equipment than Ukraine. He highlights Perun's video which provides an in-depth look at the statistics, concluding that Russia's losses are unsustainable and the claim that Ukraine has lost more is physically impossible based on their starting inventory. The data also shows Russia has lost a higher proportion of newer equipment compared to Ukraine.
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Garry Kasparov Interview
In an interview with Der Spiegel, Russian chess grandmaster Garry Kasparov discusses the war in Ukraine. He argues that every Russian citizen bears collective responsibility for the war, and those still in Russia are part of the "war machine." Kasparov suggests that Russians traveling abroad should have to sign a declaration denouncing the war, Putin's regime, and affirming Ukraine's indivisibility. He predicts Putin's military and economic capacity will be exhausted by spring, and warns that if Russia doesn't return to Europe, it risks becoming a "satellite state" of China.
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Debate on Russian Artillery Ammunition Stocks
Jonathan examines a debate between Michael Kofman and Trent Telenko on whether Russia's declining artillery fire rates are due more to logistics disruption or ammunition depletion. Kofman argues that while logistics have played a role, ammo depletion is likely the more significant factor, and Russia will face major issues by spring or fall. He notes the constructive disagreement between the two analysts as a model for healthy debate.
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Wrap up
Jonathan encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video. He also recommends checking out his interview on the "Tippling Philosopher" channel for more in-depth discussion and historical context on the war in Ukraine.
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