Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the Ukraine War News Update for the 2nd of January 2025.

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Ukraine halts Russian gas transit

🎦 00:14-00:57⏩
Ukraine has stopped the transit of Russian gas through its territory, marking a historic day and ending a significant dependency on Russia. This decision is part of a complete rebuilding of Ukraine's energy system and will have implications for several European countries. While it may present a crisis for some due to existing dependencies, it is seen as a crucial step towards real independence not just for Ukraine, but also Moldova.

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Ukraine cuts off Putin's leverage over Europe

🎦 01:11-01:24⏩
Ukraine has not only stopped Russian gas transit but has also cut off some of Putin's leverage over Europe, thereby ending his use of energy as a weapon. This is considered a very important move, with huge ramifications and contributing to a safer Europe and world without Russian energy dependencies.

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Zelensky calls for increased US gas exports to Europe

🎦 01:48-02:08⏩
President Zelensky has stated that Russian gas transit is now at zero and that Moscow's energy blackmail has cost it Europe. He also expressed a desire to support Moldova's energy transformation and called for increased U.S. gas exports to end dependence on Russia.

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Zelensky appeals to Trump regarding US LNG exports

🎦 02:09-03:05⏩
Jonathan suggests that Zelensky is cleverly appealing to Trump by highlighting the potential for increased US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe as a replacement for Russian gas. The US has become a major exporter of LNG and this move could align with Trump's desire to increase American gas exports and reduce trade deficits. Jonathan thinks keeping sanctions up could benefit the US and that this is something worth appealing to Trump over.

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Ukraine's move could align with Trump's trade policies

🎦 03:06-03:39⏩
Ukraine's call for Europe to buy more US LNG to replace Russian gas could align with Trump's previous demands for the EU to boost American oil and gas purchases to reduce the trade deficit. This situation might force Europe to buy more US oil and gas, which would fit in with Trump's goals.

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Trump could benefit from the end of the Russian gas contract

🎦 03:39-03:58⏩
The contract for Russian gas transit ended at the end of 2024, just before Trump may come into power. Trump might inherit a situation where helping Ukraine could also help his own gas exports.

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Zelensky highlights the defeat of Moscow's energy blackmail

🎦 04:04-04:23⏩
Zelensky highlights that the halt of Russian gas transit is one of Moscow's biggest defeats. He states that the transformation of energy resources into weapons by Russia has deprived it of a major market.

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European countries adapt to energy changes and support Moldova

🎦 04:23-04:32⏩
The majority of European countries have successfully adapted to the changes in energy supplies. The focus is now on supporting Moldova through its energy transformation.

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Ukraine hopes for increased American gas supply

🎦 04:32-04:53⏩
There is hope for an increase in American gas supplies to Europe, and it is thought that more gas on the market from Europe's true partners will help overcome energy dependence on Russia and bring prices down.

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Potential for Turkey to become a gas exporter to the EU

🎦 05:40-05:57⏩
With Russian gas transit via Ukraine halted, Turkey is being seen as a potential safe alternative for gas transit to the EU.

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Turkey could become a middleman for Russian gas

🎦 05:57-06:17⏩
There are concerns that Turkey, with limited gas resources of its own, may act as a middleman for Russian gas, which could help finance Russia's war against Ukraine. It is also suggested that in the medium term Turkey wants to supply Syrian Kurdish oil and gas.

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Transnistria faces hardship due to gas cut-off

🎦 06:34-06:47⏩
Thousands of people in the Transnistrian region of Moldova are out of work, with hundreds of businesses on hold due to the gas cut-off.

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Moldova faces cold schools due to Russian gas cut-off

🎦 06:47-07:02⏩
150 kindergartens and 130 schools in Transnistria are experiencing cold temperatures after Russia turned off the gas supply.

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Ukraine to provide electricity to Moldova

🎦 07:02-07:45⏩
Ukraine will provide electricity to Moldova to address the deficit in its energy system, depending on its own production capabilities. Ukraine will sell electricity to Moldova at night when there is a surplus from nuclear energy.

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Bulgaria steps up for Moldova

🎦 07:51-07:59⏩
Bulgaria is also supporting Moldova.

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Moldova adopts the Euro as its reference currency

🎦 07:59-08:17⏩
Moldova is making the euro its reference currency to strengthen economic ties with the EU and bring more stability for Moldovans.

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Bulgaria and Romania join the Schengen zone

🎦 08:17-08:56⏩
Bulgaria and Romania have joined the Schengen zone, which is the area with free movement of people. This is a very important step towards Moldova aligning itself with Europe.

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Schengen Zone expansion could cause anti-immigrant rhetoric

🎦 08:56-09:04⏩
The expansion of the Schengen zone could lead to anti-immigrant rhetoric.

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Bulgaria and Romania vital for Ukraine's success

🎦 09:04-09:23⏩
It's important that Bulgaria and Romania align with Europe and Ukraine and not with Russia as they are vital for Ukraine's success.

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Zelensky warns against trusting Russia

🎦 09:23-09:46⏩
Zelensky warns that if Russia shakes your hand today, they might start killing you with the same hand tomorrow, because Russians are afraid of free people and were born under Putin.

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Zelensky highlights support from US and Europe

🎦 09:53-10:19⏩
Zelensky recalls conversations with Joe Biden and Donald Trump, noting unity from congressmen, senators and ordinary Americans and others in Europe, in the belief that Putin cannot win and that Ukraine will prevail.

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Zelensky emphasises that peace must be just

🎦 10:19-10:30⏩
Zelensky says the war is a full-scale aggression against a civilised state and that a truly just peace cannot be based on a clean slate because of the thousands of Ukrainian lives Russia has stolen.

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Ukraine gas situation may force Hungary and Slovakia's hand

🎦 10:49-11:04⏩
The gas situation with transit across Ukraine could force the hands of Eastern European countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia.

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Poland assumes EU Council leadership

🎦 11:04-11:16⏩
Poland has assumed the EU Council leadership, with Donald Tusk making security a top priority.

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Poland aims to ensure European security

🎦 11:16-11:34⏩
Poland aims to ensure that Europe's security is a reality, not just an aspiration and hopes to lead efforts that result in peace.

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Hungarian opposition leader slams Orban's corruption

🎦 11:34-12:30⏩
Peter Magyar, the opposition leader in Hungary, has criticised Viktor Orban for making Hungary the EU's poorest and most corrupt nation. He accuses Orban of corruption and of his family and friends benefiting from government projects.

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Hungarian opposition calls for early elections

🎦 12:30-13:18⏩
Peter Magyar has called for new elections to be brought forward as there is no more time to waste and that a nation says enough is enough.

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Hungarian opposition leader's video goes viral

🎦 13:18-13:32⏩
Peter Magyar's New Year's message slamming Viktor Orban's corruption and demanding early elections has gone viral on Hungarian social media with nearly two million views.

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Orban unlikely to agree to early elections

🎦 13:32-13:52⏩
Jonathan notes that it is unlikely that Orban would agree to an early election.

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Orban might rig the election

🎦 13:52-14:07⏩
Jonathan suggests that Orban might try to rig the elections to avoid losing power, similar to what has been seen in Georgia.

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Potential for Hungary and other countries to move away from Russia

🎦 14:07-14:38⏩
Jonathan hopes that Hungary will lose its leader and that Hungary might start to move away from the Russian sphere of influence, with similar moves possible in Slovakia and Serbia.

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Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria may look more towards Europe

🎦 14:38-15:00⏩
It's hoped that Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria will look more towards Europe, which is good news for those who want democracy and transparency.

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Serbian protests over the New Year

🎦 15:00-15:30⏩
Serbians are also protesting over the New Year, mirroring protests in Georgia.

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Serbian protests began after train station collapse

🎦 15:30-15:54⏩
The Serbian protests started after 15 people died in a building collapse at the recently renovated Novi Sad train station.

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Serbian protest with 15 minutes of silence

🎦 15:54-16:07⏩
A video shows a large crowd in Belgrade observing 15 minutes of silence for the lives lost in the train station collapse.

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Footage from Serbian protest

🎦 16:07-16:52⏩
Jonathan shares footage from the Serbian protest and shows the incredible sight of so many people being silent.

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Hope for Eastern Europe to turn away from Russia

🎦 17:01-17:31⏩
There is hope that nations in Eastern Europe will turn away from Russian interference and the insidious tendrils of Russian power.

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German police stop Russian sabotage plot

🎦 17:47-17:53⏩
German police have stopped a Russian plot to blow up German trains and military bases, however the West is not fully aware of the extent of Russian aggression. Russia is at war with the West.

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Trio charged in Germany for pro-Russian plot

🎦 18:13-18:21⏩
Three men have been charged in Germany for a pro-Russian plot targeting US bases in Bavaria.

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Men charged with spying for Russia and plotting attacks

🎦 18:21-18:33⏩
Three men have been charged with spying on US military bases for Russia and plotting attacks on American personnel as retaliation for Western support of Ukraine.

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This news should be front page news in the US

🎦 18:33-18:50⏩
This news should be front page news in the US to raise awareness of Russia's actions.

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Details of the individuals charged in the plot

🎦 18:50-19:46⏩
The men, identified as Dita S, Alexander J and Alex D, were charged with working for the Foreign Intelligence Agency, sabotage, conspiracy, arson and endangering security by taking pictures of military installations. Dita S was the ringleader.

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The men surveilled US military facilities

🎦 19:46-20:01⏩
The men surveilled US military facilities with the intention of disrupting NATO logistical support to Ukraine.

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Suspect fought with the Donetsk People's Republic

🎦 20:01-20:35⏩
One of the suspects became acquainted with a Russian intelligence agent while fighting with the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). The DPR is considered a foreign terrorist organisation by German authorities.

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Suspects plotted sabotage attacks in Germany

🎦 20:35-21:07⏩
One of the suspects began exchanging information about possible sabotage in Germany and scouted potential targets. He was willing to carry out bomb and arson attacks against military and industrial sites and attack railway lines. The other two suspects began helping in March.

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Only one of the suspects remains at large

🎦 21:07-21:23⏩
Of the three, Alex D is the only one who remains at large. Jonathan notes that this is warfare, espionage and sabotage against US interests abroad.

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Russian oligarchs increased their wealth in 2024

🎦 21:23-21:52⏩
In 2024, the 25 richest Russians collectively increased their wealth by $18.5 billion. Vladimir Potanin, Russia's wealthiest man, saw his fortune grow by $736 million.

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Sanctions are not working

🎦 21:52-22:25⏩
This highlights that sanctions are not working, and that despite the war, certain areas in Russia are still very lucrative. Companies tied to Putin's inner circle continue to thrive.

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Russian allies have no incentive to oppose the war

🎦 22:25-22:32⏩
As long as Putin's allies keep profiting, they have no incentive to oppose the war in Ukraine.

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Finnish police impose travel bans on Russian crew members

🎦 22:32-23:24⏩
Finnish police have imposed travel bans on eight crew members from a Russian-linked, sanctioned circumventing tanker as part of a criminal investigation into aggravated interference of communications and aggravated criminal mischief.

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Russian crew members involved in hybrid warfare

🎦 23:24-23:47⏩
It looks like the Russian crew members were involved in hybrid warfare again.

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Geopolitical question about funding the war

🎦 23:47-24:23⏩
Doug from the comments section raises a question about the point of further funding the Russian-Ukrainian war if the end goal for the collective West is a negotiated defeat of Ukraine.

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Ukraine needs to win the war

🎦 24:23-24:39⏩
Doug hopes that Zelensky will have the courage to state that Ukraine needs to win the war and that it doesn't need a negotiated defeat.

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No strategic geopolitical interest to continue aiding Ukraine for a negotiated defeat

🎦 24:39-25:10⏩
While there are moral and humanitarian reasons to continue aiding Ukraine, Doug suggests that there is no strategic geopolitical interest for the collective West to continue doing so if the goal is a negotiated defeat.

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Trump's simplistic view of the war

🎦 25:10-25:32⏩
Jonathan agrees with Doug, stating that Trump and his team do not really understand the war in Ukraine and that he appears to have a simplistic view of the war, just wanting an end to it and not understanding the strategic importance.

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Forcing a peace undermines US efforts

🎦 25:32-26:08⏩
Forcing a negotiated peace undermines all the effort the US has been putting in to have Ukraine prevail and prevent a Russian victory. Peace is not a strategic objective in itself.

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The best outcome is not a forced peace

🎦 26:08-26:27⏩
The best outcome for the US is not a forced peace but a Ukrainian victory, which is the point that Doug is making.

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Aid will be prioritised on strategic interests

🎦 26:27-26:49⏩
With finite resources, aid will be prioritised on strategic geopolitical interests rather than moral projects. The moral dimensions of the war are not being considered by most countries.

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Nations support Ukraine for strategic benefits

🎦 26:49-27:47⏩
Nations support Ukraine for strategic benefits rather than moral reasons. There are examples of countries such as Zimbabwe that didn't receive support because they have nothing to offer. Whereas Libya and Iraq were supported as they have natural resources.

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Russia's goal was to test Western resolve

🎦 27:47-28:21⏩
Russia's goal was to demonstrate that the collective West lacks the courage, stomach, or will to protect its own interests.

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The West does not aspire for Ukraine to win the war

🎦 28:21-28:36⏩
The West does not aspire for Ukraine to win the war but instead hopes for a negotiated defeat of Ukraine, which is a triumph for Russia.

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The West has lost its ability to understand Russia

🎦 28:36-29:12⏩
The West has lost its capacity to understand the Russian perspective and cannot formulate a coherent deterrent response. In contrast, Russia understands the Western psyche.

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Putin's alliances have strengthened

🎦 29:12-29:38⏩
Putin's alliances with autocracies such as Iran, North Korea, and China have strengthened over time, and they have offered support.

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Western alliances have weakened

🎦 29:38-29:55⏩
In contrast, Western alliances have weakened, with countries not committing combat troops despite the evidence that Ukraine cannot win without them.

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Western resolve to support Ukraine has dissolved

🎦 29:55-30:06⏩
The collective resolve of the West to support Ukraine in the measure required to ensure a Russian defeat has dissolved and whittled away over time.

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Russian influences have encouraged divisions

🎦 30:06-30:37⏩
Russian influences and propaganda have encouraged divisions in the US and Europe, with some European heads of state flocking to Putin and bashing Ukraine.

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Russia is playing the long game

🎦 30:37-30:58⏩
Russia is playing the long game, where everyone gets bored and they start fracturing as they had not planned for a long war.

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Russia has shattered European deterrence

🎦 30:58-31:38⏩
Russia has completely smashed and shattered the European threat of deterrence.

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Russia will rearm and double down

🎦 31:38-32:11⏩
If Russia is victorious in Ukraine, it will rearm and double down, with Iran and North Korea becoming the arsenal of the Russian war machine.

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Support for Ukraine is shaken

🎦 32:11-32:33⏩
Support for Ukraine and the NATO alliance is shaken by the political impotency of Western leaders, and their primary support should be that it is in America's strategic interest to see Russia defeated in Ukraine to preserve deterrence and the current global world order.

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Negotiated end is a win for Russia

🎦 32:33-32:47⏩
Any negotiated end that leaves Russia with territorial gain is a complete win for Russia and a defeat for the West.

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Allowing Russia to keep invaded land would be terrible

🎦 32:47-33:14⏩
Allowing Russia to keep any of the land it has invaded will give justification for their actions, as well as giving any other aggressive state justification for their own invasions.

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Trump has said Ukraine will likely concede territory

🎦 33:14-33:28⏩
It appears that Ukraine is likely to concede territory in negotiations because people like Trump have already said so. This is unconscionable.

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A zero-sum game

🎦 33:28-33:47⏩
It is a zero-sum game where winners take all and from a geopolitical strategic position a negotiated defeat of Ukraine removes any and all reason to continue supporting the war.

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Cutting losses against sunk cost fallacy

🎦 33:47-34:07⏩
There is no point in spending further money as the West appears to be going for a forced negotiated settlement where Ukraine is going to have to give up its territory anyway, and we should cut losses against the sunk cost fallacy.

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Forcing a settlement weakens America's interest

🎦 34:07-34:28⏩
Why spend aid on a result that weakens America's interest, offers no deterrence to our enemies and encourages our enemies to challenge our global interests?

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Europe unwilling to send combat troops

🎦 34:28-34:42⏩
The Ukraine war has proven that Europeans are either unwilling or unable to commit combat troops to a near-peer war that they believe is an existential threat to their own national security.

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Is NATO a mutual alliance?

🎦 34:42-34:52⏩
There is a question as to whether NATO is truly a mutual alliance.

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US is responsible for the Cold War

🎦 34:52-35:15⏩
The US needs to be looked at for being responsible for the Cold War in the first place which has led us to the current situation. The US is also obliged to help Ukraine due to the Budapest Memorandum.

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Questions entering into 2025

🎦 35:15-35:35⏩
Jonathan is left with questions as we enter 2025.

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Full Ukrainian victory for the future

🎦 35:35-35:48⏩
A full Ukrainian victory is required for the future of Ukrainians and for the future of the West.

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Ukraine must resist pressure to negotiate defeat

🎦 35:48-35:53⏩
Jonathan hopes that Ukraine will resist the pressure to accept a negotiated defeat.

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Western nations should act as if this war is an existential threat

🎦 35:53-36:02⏩
The West should act as if the outcome of this war is truly an existential threat to its own national security.

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Faith in Western courage is shaken

🎦 36:02-36:12⏩