Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"This is what Russians think. This is what the Kremlin thinks because they sanction this kind of rhetoric. If you're the David Sachs of this world, you have no moral compass. You are broken."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:15⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to an ATP Geopolitics Ukraine War News Update for the 30th of March 2024, highlighting the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses in the video description.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 00:15-03:36⏩
Jonathan analyses the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures, noting the significant loss of 29 Russian tanks, indicating a shift in Russian tactics. He references insights from Andrew Perpetua, who suggests the figures are likely underreported by at least 50%. Jonathan points out the disparity in confirmed equipment losses, with Ukraine losing 53 vehicles compared to Russia's 242, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces.
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Visually Confirmed Losses
🎦 03:36-04:46⏩
Analysis of visually confirmed equipment losses reveals a favourable three-to-one loss ratio for Ukraine. Jonathan highlights the destruction of high-value Russian equipment, including a TOR M1/M2 tracking radar and a Strela-10 air defence system, emphasising the impact on Russian capabilities.
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Ukrainian Targeting of Russian Air Defence Systems
🎦 04:46-05:12⏩
Jonathan discusses the apparent Ukrainian focus on targeting Russian air defence systems, suggesting it is a deliberate strategy to degrade Russian air defence capabilities.
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Effectiveness of the Kreminna Offensive & Confirmed Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 05:12-07:35⏩
Jonathan questions the long-term effectiveness of the Ukrainian offensive in Kreminna, given the static nature of the frontline, and ponders whether the potential for Ukrainian losses outweighs the strategic gains. He highlights the confirmed Russian personnel losses, exceeding 49,281, based on open-source data compiled by BBC Russia and Mediazona. Jonathan emphasizes these figures represent a minimum and surpass Russian losses in the Afghanistan conflict, underscoring the severity of the situation for Russia.
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Russian Su-27SM Downed by Friendly Fire in Crimea
🎦 09:17-10:46⏩
Confirmation that the Russian Su-27SM crash in Crimea was caused by friendly fire from a Russian Pantsir anti-aircraft system due to communication failures and equipment malfunction. The pilot is believed to have died despite ejecting.
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Ukrainian Drone Strike on Russian Tor SAM Battery in Kharkiv Oblast
🎦 10:46-11:24⏩
Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed half of a Russian Tor SAM battery in Kharkiv Oblast using FPV drones. The attack highlights the asymmetry of warfare, with low-cost drones neutralising expensive military equipment. Jonathan contrasts this with the effectiveness of Russian Lancet drones against Ukrainian equipment.
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Shahed Drone Attacks and Overnight News
🎦 11:24-12:04⏩
The Ukrainian Air Force shot down nine out of twelve Shahed drones launched by Russia. Jonathan details Russian attacks on the Kreminska Hydroelectric Power Plant and Kamianske with ballistic missiles and drones, resulting in significant damage and civilian casualties.
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International Response to Russian Attacks and Need for Air Defence Systems
🎦 12:04-13:13⏩
Jonathan expresses outrage over the attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and criticizes individuals who downplay the situation or blame Ukraine. He emphasizes the need for increased international support, particularly air defence systems, to protect Ukraine and its energy infrastructure.
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Destruction of Zmiiv Thermal Power Plant
🎦 13:13-13:46⏩
The Zmiiv Thermal Power Plant near Kharkiv was completely destroyed in a Russian missile attack on March 22nd, dealing a severe blow to Ukraine's energy production capacity.
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US Disapproval of Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Refineries
🎦 13:46-17:17⏩
Jonathan discusses the US's disapproval of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. Initially, it was believed the US publicly condemned the strikes as a realpolitik strategy while secretly supporting them. However, Zelensky confirmed the US was genuinely unhappy, although they couldn't prevent Ukraine from using its own weapons. Zelensky defended the attacks as a necessary response to Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy grid, arguing that Russia should face similar consequences. Jonathan acknowledges the shifting understanding of the situation based on available information.
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Russian Use of ODAB-1500 Thermobaric Bomb in Sumy Oblast
🎦 17:17-18:21⏩
Russia has used an ODAB-1500 heavy aerial bomb, a powerful thermobaric weapon, for the first time in Sumy Oblast. Jonathan highlights the devastating nature of this weapon and reiterates the urgent need for comprehensive air defence systems for Ukraine.
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Zelensky's Reshuffle of Presidential Office
🎦 18:21-20:50⏩
Zelensky has dismissed two members of his presidential office and four advisors as part of an ongoing reshuffle. Jonathan explores various interpretations of these changes, including a response to the challenging situation, performance issues, potential dissent within the administration, and the need for fresh perspectives after two years of war. He cautions against reading too much into the reshuffle, noting that personnel changes are expected in such high-stress situations and comparing it to the UK cabinet's recent turmoil. Jonathan emphasizes the immense pressure and challenges faced by those in leadership positions during wartime.
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Russian Personnel Seeking Deployment to Syria
🎦 20:50-21:01⏩
Russian military personnel are reportedly paying bribes to be deployed to Syria instead of Ukraine, as casualties mount in the "special military operation." Jonathan finds this unsurprising, as Syria is perceived as a safer option compared to the increasingly hazardous situation in Ukraine.
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Deportation of Migrants in Russia
🎦 21:01-21:24⏩
A large-scale operation targeting migrants is underway in St. Petersburg and across Russia. This operation involves detaining and deporting migrants, with raids on hostels and apartments. Human rights activists have raised concerns about these actions. Jonathan links this crackdown to the recent terror attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow.
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Zelensky's Message to Congress and Escalation of Counter-Attacks
🎦 21:24-23:27⏩
Zelensky delivered a direct message to the US Congress as Russian missiles targeted southern Ukraine, urging them to provide weapons to halt the attacks. He warned that Ukraine would escalate its counterattacks on Russian airfields, energy infrastructure, and other strategic targets if sufficient support wasn't provided. Jonathan highlights the increasingly desperate situation in Ukraine as Russia continues to target its energy infrastructure, impacting morale and operational capacity. He criticizes anti-Ukrainian commentators and emphasizes the disparity between their narratives and the reality on the ground. Jonathan cites reports from Russian sources acknowledging the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery, contradicting claims of a decline in Ukrainian capabilities.
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Peskov's Statement on Changed Borders
🎦 23:27-24:57⏩
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, stated that the borders of Russia and Ukraine have changed, asserting that the international community must accept the annexation of four Ukrainian regions. Jonathan condemns this as the behaviour of a "violent, genocidal, international bully." He criticizes those who downplay the severity of Russian actions and highlights the Kremlin's approval of harmful rhetoric, citing state TV host Vladimir Solovyov's call to "erase" Kherson. Jonathan reiterates his condemnation of individuals who fail to recognize the moral implications of the situation.
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Ecological Crimes and Environmental Impact
🎦 25:16-29:13⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the environmental impact of the war, emphasizing the "outrageous ecological crimes" committed by Russia. He cites Zelensky's statement highlighting the deliberate targeting of Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants, posing risks not only to Ukraine but also to Moldova. Jonathan stresses the need for swift international action to address Russia's attacks on critical infrastructure and reiterates the urgent need for air defence systems to protect Ukraine and the wider region. He concludes by highlighting the ecological damage inflicted on Ukraine, urging viewers to remember the long-term consequences of the war on the environment and the country's ecosystems. Jonathan shares a poignant poem, "Witnesses of War Crimes" by Kateryna Mikhailitsyna, reflecting on the destruction and the role of nature as a silent witness to the conflict.
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Wrap up
🎦 29:13-29:20⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by prompting viewers to consider who will listen to the silent witnesses of the war and hold those responsible accountable.
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