Ukraine War Update EXTRA - "Russia Is At War" w/ Us, Trump as Unpredictable Ally
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:28⏩
Jonathan welcomes the team to another ATP Geopolitics "extra" video. This segment will focus on the relationship between Donald Trump, Ukraine, and the ongoing war, particularly his statements and the apparent shift away from supporting Ukraine.
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Trump's Outrage at Ukrainian Strikes and Dislike for Zelensky
🎦 00:28-04:48⏩
Jonathan discusses an Atlantic article reporting that the White House is considering ending support for Kyiv, citing Trump's outrage over Ukraine's strikes on Russian military airfields.
- Trump, despite some initial impression of Ukrainian audacity (like "Operation Spiderweb"), reportedly reacts negatively to successful Ukrainian actions, believing Russia will retaliate harshly.
- Jonathan highlights Trump's "both sides-ism", where he criticises Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky even when he should be condemning Putin. Trump has previously called Zelensky a "bad guy" and a "hothead", linking this animosity to Zelensky's refusal to provide dirt on Biden, which led to Trump's impeachment.
- Trump's objective is a quick peace, preferably one that benefits Russia, to rebuild a relationship with Putin. He believes Ukraine should not focus on defending itself or gaining advantages but should capitulate.
MAGA Voices Criticise Ukraine and Influence Trump
🎦 04:49-06:19⏩
Jonathan notes that influential MAGA voices, such as Steve Bannon and Keith Kellogg, are berating Ukraine for attacks on Russia.
- Steve Bannon on his podcast blamed Ukraine for "sabotaging peace talks" and potentially provoking a massive Russian response, specifically for the deep strike without US "heads up" before a meeting in Turkey. Jonathan suggests Bannon's views hold sway with Trump.
- Keith Kellogg, despite his daughter working for a humanitarian organisation in Kyiv, has increasingly echoed Russian talking points, warning that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's "national survival system" (implicitly nuclear program) risk significant retaliation.
Trump's Inaction on Ukraine Aid and Sanctions
🎦 06:19-07:01⏩
Jonathan points out Trump's lack of action in supporting Ukraine.
- Trump has not increased military aid to Ukraine since taking office.
- He has yet to endorse a bipartisan Senate push, led by Senator Lindsey Graham, to impose harsh economic penalties against Russia and countries doing business with it.
- There are rumours Trump is trying to water down this bill, which Jonathan finds concerning.
US White House Distancing and Zelensky's Justification for Strikes
🎦 07:01-08:06⏩
Jonathan highlights further signs of the White House distancing itself from Ukraine.
- US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth notably skipped a meeting of 50 defence ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, a crucial venue for coordinating military aid for Ukraine, the first time in three years.
- A White House spokesman reiterated Trump's desire for the war to end at the negotiating table, communicated to both leaders.
- In contrast, Putin has downplayed ceasefire chances, asking "who has negotiations with terrorists?".
- Zelensky, however, countered that the "Operation Spiderweb" drone strike would not have occurred if Putin had agreed to US-proposed talks, asserting that Ukraine acts in self-defence when diplomatic solutions are rejected.
Trump's "Walk Away" Strategy and Lack of Geopolitical Understanding
🎦 08:06-09:57⏩
Jonathan criticises Trump's "walk away" strategy regarding the conflict, which Trump frames as a punishment for Russia but would in reality give Russia exactly what it wants: the US abandoning Ukraine.
- Trump's sole focus is a "quick peace, no matter what the cost", which benefits Russia's maximalist agenda and screws over Ukraine.
- Jonathan also highlights Trump's naive engagement with Putin, as seen in their discussion about Iran's nuclear ambitions. Trump believed Putin could be "helpful" in reaching a rapid conclusion, despite Russia and Iran being allies.
- Jonathan asserts that Trump is "firmly on the side of Russia" and demonstrates a "fundamental lack of knowledge" and understanding of global geopolitics and the conflict.
Russia Urges US/UK to Restrain Ukraine; Trump's "Both Sides" Sanctions Idea
🎦 09:58-11:26⏩
Jonathan reports on Russia urging the US and UK to "restrain Ukraine" after the bomber attacks, with the Russian ambassador specifically blaming the UK for providing intelligence for "Operation Spiderweb".
- He notes the absurdity of Russia's demand for Ukraine to be restrained from defending itself.
- Jonathan references Roman Sheremeta's observation that Trump's consideration of sanctioning Ukraine is akin to "following orders from the Kremlin".
- He concludes by strongly condemning Trump's "both sides" approach to sanctions, calling it "ridiculous" and asserting that Donald Trump is "morally reprehensible".
White House Pressures Senate to Water Down Russia Sanctions
🎦 11:26-13:44⏩
Jonathan discusses a Wall Street Journal report indicating that White House officials are "quietly pressuring" the Senate to weaken Russia sanctions legislation, specifically urging Senator Lindsey Graham to water down his bill.
- Jonathan states he believes the report is "almost certainly true", given the Wall Street Journal's critical stance on Trump, particularly from a right-wing perspective, lends its reports more credibility.
- He notes that while Trump denies direct involvement, his administration or advisors would be doing the urging. Jonathan firmly believes Trump's opinions are largely "derived from what people around him tell him" due to his fundamental lack of knowledge, reading, or engagement with intelligence briefings. He considers Trump "a victim of the whisperers around him".
Trump's Reluctance to Confront China Over Russia Support
🎦 13:45-14:50⏩
Jonathan highlights a Bloomberg report that Trump is reluctant to confront China over its support for Russia's war in Ukraine.
- He finds this "absolutely incredible", given Trump's usual "bombastic rhetoric" and tariffs against China. This conflict would be a "perfect opportunity" to leverage against China.
- Jonathan argues that Trump's "beholden[ness] to Russia" means "even China's support of Russia is off limits for Trump".
- As a result, the European Union is "picking up the slack" by maintaining public pressure on China through diplomatic channels and statements.
Zelensky's Rebuttal to Trump's "Kids in a Playground" Analogy
🎦 14:51-18:26⏩
Jonathan notes the difficult position Zelensky is in when responding to Trump's "wildly inaccurate, problematic, and hurtful" statements without causing a rupture.
- He highlights Trump's analogy comparing Russia and Ukraine to "two kids in a playground" who just need to "fight for a little bit" to "get out their energy" before things can be sorted. Jonathan finds this deeply offensive, pointing out that "three years is not a short period" and it involves "killing women and children" with missile strikes.
- Jonathan shares Zelensky's powerful response during an ABC interview: Zelensky states that those "thousands of miles away" cannot fully understand the pain, and clarifies: "we are not kids with Putin at the playground in the park. This is why I am saying he is a murderer who came to this park to kill the kids."
- Jonathan praises Zelensky's response as "on point" and a "corrective that needed to be said", balancing directness without being "overly critical" of Trump.
Trump Criticises Ukraine's Strikes as Provocation, Not Strength
🎦 18:27-20:46⏩
Jonathan further dissects Trump's reaction to Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian airfields.
- When asked if the strikes changed his view on Zelensky's "cards" (negotiating power), Trump replied that they "gave Putin a reason to go in and bomb the hell out of him last night. That's the thing I didn't like about it."
- Jonathan interprets this as Trump's "go-to is a criticism of Ukraine", rather than acknowledging Ukrainian strength or resilience.
- He argues that Trump's stance implies Ukraine "should just sit there and let Russia bomb your cities" and "capitulate", finding it "unbelievable that you would try and win this war" or "stand up to Russia". Jonathan uses a hypothetical scenario of Russia invading the US and Trump advocating non-reaction to illustrate the absurdity of this position.
Kremlin's Maximalist Demands and Trump's Lack of Intelligence Briefings
🎦 20:46-23:46⏩
Jonathan discusses a Kremlin official's response to the US Senate's proposed sanctions, calling senators "hotheads" and stating that Russia "won't change its demands to end the war" or its "maximalist approach" to any peace deal.
- Jonathan connects this to Trump's alarming lack of intelligence briefings, revealing that Trump has only received 14 briefings since January 20th, compared to Biden's 90 in the same period.
- He stresses that a US President, as the "centre of global geopolitics", needs daily intelligence briefings to make informed decisions. Trump, however, is "fundamentally ignorant" of crucial information, relying instead on "whisperers" around him who "feed" him summaries from selective press.
- Jonathan concludes that this fundamental ignorance, especially regarding Russia's unwavering maximalist stance, is an "international crisis" given Trump's influential position.
UK Strategic Defence Review: Russia at War with Britain, US an Unreliable Ally
🎦 23:46-25:22⏩
Jonathan introduces the UK's Strategic Defence Review (SDR), a well-received document written by "serious people" including former NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson and Fiona Hill (former National Security Advisor to Trump).
- He reveals that the SDR, essentially reflecting an "official government position" in the UK, concludes that Russia is at war with Britain, and the US is no longer a reliable ally.
- Jonathan notes that this validates his long-held view that "we are at war with Russia. This is World War Three, whether you know it or not."
Fiona Hill's Analysis: Russia's Adversarial Nature and UK's Position
🎦 25:22-27:56⏩
Jonathan delves into Fiona Hill's contributions to the SDR, quoting her statement that the UK is "caught between the rock of Vladimir Putin's Russia and the hard place of Donald Trump's increasingly unpredictable US."
- Hill explains that Russia has "hardened as an adversary", with Putin viewing the Ukraine war as a step towards Moscow becoming a "dominant military power in all of Europe".
- She lists Russia's "menacing" actions against the UK: poisonings, assassinations, sabotage operations, cyber attacks, influence operations, and efforts to "butcher undersea cables".
- Jonathan emphasises that Hill's analysis confirms his long-standing assertion that "we are at war with Russia". He describes the current situation as a "quasi proxy war, but not in the pejorative sense, in a very functional sense".
US Decoupling from Ukraine and Unpredictable Alliance
🎦 27:56-30:28⏩
Jonathan continues with Fiona Hill's insights from the SDR, specifically her view that the US has "decoupled from Ukraine", meaning it has moved away from supporting Kyiv.
- Hill suggests this effectively means the US is "more supporting Russia" in a "zero-sum game situation", as "any lack of support of Ukraine is, by effect, a support of Russia or helping Russia."
- She attributes this to Putin's belief that Trump "really wants to have a separate relationship with Putin to do arms control agreements and also business that will probably enrich their entourages further."
- This decoupling makes the US a "very unpredictable partner and ally of the UK", meaning the UK "could not rely on the military umbrella of the US as during the Cold War", at least "not in the way that we did before".
- The SDR acknowledges that the UK's "longstanding assumptions about global power balances and structures are no longer certain", a rare governmental acknowledgement of "how far and how fast Trumpism is affecting foreign policy certainties."
Trump's "Court" and Concerns about UK Politics
🎦 30:28-33:58⏩
Jonathan highlights Fiona Hill's characterisation of the Trump White House.
- Hill describes it not as an "administration" but as a "court in which a transactional president is driven by his own desires and interests and who listens often to the last person he talks to." Jonathan feels "validated" by this precise observation, as it confirms his own assessment of Trump.
- Hill notes Trump's "special affinity for the UK" (due to his Scottish mother and admiration for the Royal Family), contrasting this with his inner circle who "don't really give two hoots about the UK".
- However, Hill also expresses concern about the "populist right administration" and the potential for "culture wars" to "come to Britain" through the encouragement of US Republicans, mentioning efforts to import "MAGA-Republicanism" into UK councils like Kent and County Durham.
Conclusion: US Not a Reliable Ally and Trump's Detrimental Stance
🎦 33:58-35:32⏩
Jonathan reiterates the overarching conclusions from the video:
- Under Trump, the US is not a reliable ally to Canada, Australia, the EU, or the UK.
- He asserts that "we are at war with Russia" and will largely "have to go this alone".
- Trump shows no indication of helping Ukraine or pressuring Russia; instead, he is moving the US towards "helping out Russia more and more", evident in both his rhetoric and actions (like his Secretary of Defense skipping the Ramstein meeting).
- Jonathan concludes that anyone still believing Trump is the right person for Ukraine "probably need to get your head checked" and question if they are "existing in a cult". He firmly states there is "no evidence to support that" and that if the US does end up supporting Ukraine, "it will be by accident, not by design," although he holds out hope for such a development.
Wrap up
🎦 35:32-35:35⏩
Jonathan thanks the viewers for watching, bids them farewell, and promises to speak soon.
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