Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"A right-wing Germany combined with a right-wing Italy and other nations in Europe who have taken a shift to the right could unite the continent in a way not seen before. Hang on. I must say, last time that there was a really right-wing German leader, a really right-wing Italian leader, and they got together and what happened? What was it that happened around there? Joey Manorino, you absolute wingnut, sod off."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:45⏩
Jonathan welcomes the team to the third part of his Ukraine War News Update for the 21st of December 2024. He explains that it is Saturday night and he has just finished playing board games and drinking Ukrainian wine with his family. His partner and her daughter are watching a Bridget Jones film, so he has opted out to catch up with the geopolitical news concerning the war in Ukraine.
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Chinese Vessel Yiping-3 leaves Danish Waters
🎦 00:45-03:04⏩
The Chinese vessel Yiping-3, suspected of severing multiple communication cables in the Baltic Sea between the Nordic states, Denmark and one of the Baltic states, has left Danish waters and is en route to Egypt. The vessel, which is believed to have a Russian captain, had been in Danish waters for a month. Sweden launched an official investigation, but its prosecutor general was denied boarding. Jonathan expresses frustration that the ship has left, making a tangible investigation into the hardware of the ship impossible. He highlights the difficulty of adhering to international laws and norms when the other side does not. Jonathan questions who denied boarding to the ship and why.
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Czech Republic to Ban Russian Citizenship Applications
🎦 03:04-03:25⏩
The Czech Republic is to ban Russians from obtaining citizenship. Jonathan notes that this is a strong ruling and that there is a comment that it is "long overdue".
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Slovak Prime Minister to Meet with Putin in Russia
🎦 03:25-03:52⏩
The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, will travel to Russia on December 23rd to meet with Putin, according to Serbian Prime Minister Alexander Vucic.
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Ukraine to Stop Transiting Russian Gas from 1st January
🎦 03:52-06:16⏩
According to Serbian Prime Minister Vucic, the visit is due to the fact that Ukraine will stop transiting Russian gas from January 1st. Jonathan explains that there is a lot riding on this decision, as there is potentially a severe ramification to the contract not being extended beyond this year by Ukraine. Jonathan notes that Robert Fico is not at all happy about this. Anders Aslund notes the names of the Russian pipelines through Ukraine to Europe: the two big gas pipelines are called Bratstvo (Brotherhood) and Soyuz (Union), while the oil pipeline is named Druzbar (Friendship). Aslund states that Russia has used all three to corrupt and extort Ukraine. The Kyiv Insider reports that the end of Russian gas transit begins on January 1st at 7 a.m. A map is shown of the three pipelines. Jonathan explains that if the pipelines are shut down, it will hurt Slovakia big time, and this is why Robert Fico has been "mouthing off" about Ukraine recently.
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Ongoing Protests in Georgia
🎦 06:16-07:01⏩
Tens of thousands are still marching in the centre of Tbilisi, Georgia, paralysing the city with traffic jams. Protests in Georgia continue over election fraud and the government's refusal to pursue EU membership talks until 2028. Jonathan comments that this is great and what we want to see. He hopes the protests will continue with a permanence that will grind Georgia to a halt and force the Georgian government to capitulate to the demands of the people.
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Impact of Sanctions on Bidzina Ivanishvili and Georgian Dream Party
🎦 07:01-12:31⏩
Jonathan discusses Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the Georgian Dream Party, and the impact of sanctions on him and his party. Jonathan explains that Ivanishvili is the power behind the party and that sanctions are already working, as evidenced by his panicked reactions. Jonathan notes that when the Baltic states imposed sanctions, Ivanishvili ridiculed them, dismissing their actions as only hurting the Baltic people. However, when the UK and US imposed Magnitsky sanctions, Ivanishvili's tone shifted instantly, and he slammed the panic button. Jonathan explains that Ivanishvili is afraid of appearing weak and of cracks and defections within his power structure. In response to the sanctions, Ivanishvili promoted sanctioned Interior Minister Vaktang Gomalauri to Vice Prime Minister and announced medals of honour and compensation for other sanctioned loyalists. Jonathan quotes Terje Helland, who argues that this is a sign of fear and desperation, not confidence. Jonathan goes on to explain how the Magnitsky sanctions work, noting that they are isolating, consequential, and contagious. Anyone who interacts with sanctioned individuals can be targeted next, including banks, colleagues, businesses, and even pizza delivery companies. Jonathan concludes that Ivanishvili knows defections are coming and is freaking out, as no one wants to risk their future over a leader in panic mode. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about whether this will track with reality but hopes to see cracks and defections in the Georgian Dream government. He acknowledges that Russia seems to have a stranglehold on the country.
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Elon Musk's Support for Germany's AfD Party
🎦 12:31-15:17⏩
Jonathan discusses Elon Musk's tweet stating that "only the AFD can save Germany." Jonathan notes that Musk has a history of advocating for radical extremists and that being retweeted by Alexander Dugin, a genocidal ultra-philosopher whose thoughts underwrite Putin's policies, should be a cause for self-reflection. Jonathan draws an analogy, stating that if he were being endorsed by the worst people in history, like Hitler, he would have to question whether he was on the right side of morality. Jonathan argues that Musk's advocacy of the AfD, a right-wing extremist party, is concerning. He dismisses Musk's attempt to use Alice Weidel, a more moderate member of the AfD, to justify his support, calling it a "fallacy of hasty generalisation."
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Concerns over Elon Musk's Alignment with Moscow's Interests
🎦 15:17-18:47⏩
Jonathan discusses Olga Lautman's article on Elon Musk's support for the AfD, which she argues further aligns his actions with Moscow's interests and deepens concerns about his threat to democracy. Jonathan highlights the importance of this issue, as a strong showing by the AfD in the upcoming German elections could lead to a dilution of German support for Ukraine, given the party's pro-Russian stance. He draws a parallel with the potential impact of Trump's election on US support for Ukraine. Jonathan quotes Lautman's article, which details Musk's endorsement of the AfD, his connections to European far-right factions, and his secretive ties and calls to Putin. The article argues that Musk's actions mirror Russia's playbook for destabilising Western democracies and advancing its political goals.
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Attack at Christmas Market in Magdeburg, Germany
🎦 18:47-22:02⏩
Jonathan discusses the attack at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, where a car drove into a crowd, killing and injuring several people. He notes that the alleged driver is a 50-year-old Saudi Arabian doctor and that this incident will be fuel for the fire of the AfD, providing them with ammunition in the upcoming elections. Jonathan expresses concern for Germany, stating that the AfD will exploit the situation.
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Conflicting Reports on Magdeburg Attacker's Ideology
🎦 22:02-28:08⏩
Jonathan discusses the conflicting reports surrounding the ideology of the alleged attacker, Taleb A. He mentions claims that the attacker was influenced by far-right figures like Tommy Robinson and Alex Jones, as well as Elon Musk. However, Jonathan also highlights reports suggesting that the attacker was an ex-Muslim atheist or a leftist. He quotes a Der Spiegel article that details the attacker's contradictory statements and his admiration for far-right figures. Jonathan then discusses claims that the attacker was actually an ex-Muslim who had expressed support for the AfD and had advocated for the protection of Germany's borders against illegal migration. Jonathan concludes by mentioning a theory that the attacker was a radical Shia Muslim practicing taqiyya, an Islamic doctrine that permits lying and deception to advance Islamic objectives.
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Saudi Warnings About Magdeburg Attacker Ignored by German Authorities
🎦 28:08-29:12⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that the Saudi government had sent four warnings to the German intelligence services and foreign ministry about the Magdeburg attacker's "very extreme positions," but these warnings were ignored. He also mentions a counter-theory that the Saudis may be mounting a disinformation campaign to discredit the attacker, who had allegedly been trying to help young Saudi women escape abusive relationships and seek asylum in Germany.
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Impact of Magdeburg Attack on AfD and German Politics
🎦 29:12-31:33⏩
Jonathan discusses the impact of the Magdeburg attack on the AfD and German politics. He quotes Shashank Joshi, who reports that neo-Nazi Torsten Heiser was present at a demonstration in the city's central square, where shouts of "We are the people" and "Germany, wake up from your evil dream" were heard. Jonathan expresses concern about the situation, noting that the AfD was already estimated to be Germany's second-largest party with around 19% of polling popularity before the attack. He concludes that the attack, combined with Musk's support for the AfD and any potential Russian interference, could lead to "some very dark days" for Europe.
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Elon Musk's Disinformation and Influence on US and European Politics
🎦 31:33-34:47⏩
Jonathan discusses Elon Musk's role in spreading disinformation and his influence on US and European politics. He mentions an article from The Hill about Musk flooding Twitter with misinformation regarding the US spending bill. Jonathan criticises Musk for using Twitter as a "firehose of disinformation." He then discusses Joey Mannarino, an American who was caught using a sock puppet account on Twitter to pose as a black woman and spread anti-Biden messages. Jonathan highlights Mannarino's recent statement expressing support for the AfD and his desire for a right-wing alliance in Europe, which Jonathan compares to the alliance between Hitler and Mussolini. Jonathan warns about the potential consequences of the upcoming German elections and the rise of the AfD.
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Impact of Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Oil Sector
🎦 34:47-35:25⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukrainian drone attacks have caused serious damage to the Russian oil refining sector and budget, according to Bloomberg. He cites statistics showing that average daily seaborne deliveries of petroleum products from Russia have decreased by 9% compared to 2023 and 10% compared to 2022. Jonathan notes that sanctions are working and that it is important to keep plugging the loopholes and prevent ghost fleets from operating effectively.
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Record High Imports of Russian Liquefied Natural Gas to the EU
🎦 35:25-38:50⏩
Jonathan discusses the Financial Times report that Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to the EU have reached a record high this year, despite the sanctions on Russian gas pipelines. He acknowledges that this is problematic and needs to change but speculates that European nations may be struggling to replace Russian gas and are resorting to importing more LNG as a temporary measure. Jonathan suggests that the increase in LNG imports is likely not as bad as it seems, as it may be a relatively small amount compared to the gas previously imported through pipelines. However, he emphasises the need for Europe to wean itself off Russian hydrocarbons.
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Shift in US Republican Sentiment on Ending the War in Ukraine
🎦 38:50-41:32⏩
Jonathan discusses a Gallup poll showing that Republicans have jumped 20% in wanting to end the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible, even if that means Ukraine loses more territory to Russia. He attributes this shift to the influence of leaders and the power of authority figures, citing Stanley Milgram's experiments. Jonathan argues that people are easily swayed and that their own rational and moral intuitions often go out the window when authority figures dictate to them. He concludes that this data is problematic and shows the power of the messenger rather than the content of the message.
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Trump's Negotiating Strategy on NATO Defence Spending
🎦 41:32-42:57⏩
Jonathan discusses Trump's reported desire for NATO nations to spend 5% of their GDP on defence to qualify for membership, while also privately stating that he would settle for 3.5%. Jonathan quotes Shashank Joshi, who criticises this as a "bad negotiating strategy" since it reveals Trump's willingness to compromise before negotiations even begin.
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Concerns over Threats to US Democracy
🎦 42:57-44:56⏩
Jonathan discusses Tucker Carlson's claim that any Republican senator who opposes the nomination of Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence is an enemy of the United States. Jonathan criticises this as "troubling rhetoric" and a sign of a "bullying regime." He argues that this is not democracy but a system where lawmakers are being strong-armed to vote in a particular way. Jonathan emphasises the importance of freedom of thought, action, and vote, and states that if lawmakers cannot vote with their conscience, they do not operate in a free and fair democratic system.
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CIA Director's Farewell Trip to Kyiv
🎦 44:56-45:24⏩
Jonathan reports on CIA Director Bill Burns' farewell trip to Kyiv. He notes that Burns' intelligence about Russia's plan to capture Hostomel Airport helped save Kyiv in 2022 and expresses sadness that Burns will be leaving his position, potentially to be replaced by someone like Kash Patel.
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Rebuke of User Comment Mischaracterising Jonathan's Position on Defence Spending
🎦 45:24-47:57⏩
Jonathan responds to a comment from user Kip Humphrey, who accused Jonathan of being against increasing military spending. Jonathan strongly refutes this claim, stating that he has never said that and that Humphrey is mischaracterising his position. Jonathan clarifies that he believes defence spending should be increased and that it is an important insurance policy. He explains that his previous comments were about Trump's rationale for discussing defence spending, not whether it was a good or bad thing in itself.
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Critique of User Comment on US Politics
🎦 47:57-50:25⏩
Jonathan addresses a comment claiming he has "no clue" about US politics. He argues that such comments are often based on partisan differences rather than genuine ignorance. Jonathan points out the hypocrisy of the commenter, who likely criticises Democrats for similar behaviour but excuses it from Republicans. He expresses annoyance at being told he knows nothing about a subject when others say he understands it well, concluding that it simply reflects disagreement with his views.
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Response to Request for Channel Recommendations
🎦 50:25-52:08⏩
Jonathan responds to a comment from John Reid, who requests recommendations for other channels providing updates on Ukraine because he is tired of hearing about Trump. Jonathan acknowledges that he does not like Trump but explains that he has to report on him because the US is the country in a position to help Ukraine the most. He argues that not reporting on the US political system with regard to Ukraine would be inadequate reporting.
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Comment from US Marine
🎦 52:08-53:06⏩
Jonathan shares a comment from jdogrules5014, who had previously mentioned joining the Marines. The commenter states that he has graduated from Marine Corps basic training and asks if Jonathan could summarise everything major he missed while he was without technology. Jonathan expresses gratitude for the comment and says he cannot summarise everything but welcomes him back.
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Wrap up
🎦 53:06-53:37⏩
Jonathan reminds viewers about the campaign for "Trucks Under the Christmas Tree," which has raised 35,000 euros towards a 40,000 euro goal. He thanks viewers for their support and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He wishes everyone a Merry Christmas.
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