Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

"Today, anyone in the free world who pretends to be neutral maintains an even distance or demonstrates it towards Ukraine and Russia deserves the darkest place in political hell."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:19⏩

Jonathan welcomes everyone to another ATP Geopolitics video - Part 2 of Ukraine War News Update for 23rd January 2024

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Russian Missile Strike on Kharkiv

🎦 00:19-01:11⏩

Jonathan discusses footage of a Russian ballistic missile hitting a residential area in Kharkiv. He states that Russia struck Kharkiv with a Kh-22 missile - a large anti-ship missile known for its low accuracy. He describes this as a war crime and highlights how cynical this is given Russia's recent UN statements about brotherly nations.

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Jonathan questions the role of the UN

🎦 01:11-01:38⏩

Jonathan questions the continuing role of the UN and asks why Russia continues to be given a platform. He states that for Lavrov (Russian Foreign Minister) to make statements at the UN, whilst simultaneously authorising missile strikes on Ukrainian cities makes his words "a disgusting thing to say".

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Poland Military Aid

🎦 01:38-03:37⏩

Jonathan discusses Poland's support for Ukraine. He highlights the domestic issues that have plagued the Polish government in recent months, stating that these issues have meant that Ukraine has been put "on the back burner" whilst they were resolved. He states that former Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, visited Kyiv yesterday and announced a new defence package for Ukraine, but details about what this will include are yet to be released. Jonathan states that he will return to this in the Geopolitical section of the video.

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Belgium Military Aid: €611m package announced

🎦 03:38-04:25⏩

Jonathan expresses his thanks to Belgium for announcing a €611m military aid package for 2024. This follows frustration from pro-Ukrainian Belgians that their government has not done enough to support Ukraine. Jonathan highlights that Belgium is not a poor country and has a "vibrant defence industry". He states that this is "better late than never". Jonathan then moves on to discuss NATO's announcement that it has signed a contract for $1.22bn worth of artillery shells.

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How does NATO Military Aid work?

🎦 04:25-06:19⏩

Jonathan spends some time discussing how NATO aid works. He states that in the past he has been asked why NATO is not providing shells to Ukraine and his response has been that NATO does not have any shells. He states that NATO is not a country and does not have its own army, but instead is a pact between nations. It is these member nations who give equipment, often under pressure from NATO as an organisation. He clarifies that NATO can sign contracts such as the recent one for $1.22bn of artillery shells, but that these will be provided to Ukraine by member states, or will be used to replenish their own stockpiles. He summarises by saying "I hope that clarifies things...because I'm not 100% sure how that works"!

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Hungary refuses to finance Military Aid to Ukraine

🎦 06:20-06:50⏩

Jonathan reports that Hungary has said that it will not be participating in the financing of arms supplies to Ukraine. Jonathan then jokes that this will lead to "a separate 26 nation help for Ukraine" - a reference to the recent elections in Slovakia which saw the pro-Russian Robert Fico elected as Prime Minister.

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EU to apply windfall tax to frozen Russian assets

🎦 07:01-09:11⏩

Jonathan discusses reports that the EU are progressing plans to apply a windfall tax to profits generated from frozen Russian Central Bank assets. He explains how this will work in practice. Instead of seizing Russian assets and giving them to Ukraine, the EU will instead be taking the profits generated from these assets. He states that this is because the EU is attempting to create a legally sound framework, so that Russia cannot take legal action against the bloc. Jonathan highlights how the UK has been reticent to do this and explains how he thinks the new windfall tax will work. He states that the EU will create a tax that only applies to the specific types of money that are currently frozen and then levy an 80% tax on them. They will then give the profits from this tax to Ukraine. He describes this as "JP's interpretation" but states that it might be a more sustainable model in the long run, even if it means less money for Ukraine in the short term.

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User comment about US Military Aid

🎦 09:11-10:46⏩

Jonathan reads out a comment from user Cody Badoir who states that the upcoming Ukraine Defence Contact group will be the first where the US shows up empty handed. He states that Badoir is Canadian and "something of a conservative" and is not a fan of Trudeau or Biden. Jonathan then goes on to discuss how the US is no longer the biggest provider of military aid, in real terms. He believes that this has been the case for the past four months and that the EU has really stepped up, particularly Germany. Jonathan states that even when you take into account GDP and purchasing power the US is still lagging behind the EU in terms of aid.

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Upcoming Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting

🎦 10:46-11:46⏩

Jonathan reports that the next meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (the Ramstein format) will take place tomorrow. He says that people should not expect any new announcements, particularly from the US. He reads out a quote from an unnamed source who states that the US is in a difficult position due to the impasse in Congress which means that it is unable to deliver on the types of commitments it has made previously. He states that in previous meetings it was the US who were pressing other nations to increase their contributions, but that now the roles have reversed, with the US now being asked what they are doing.

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Germany Taurus Missile update

🎦 11:46-13:34⏩

Jonathan discusses the latest updates regarding the potential supply of Taurus Missiles to Ukraine. He reports that Jürgen Nelditz (a German MP) has released information following discussions with the Taurus manufacturer. Germany has over 600 Taurus missiles, 300 of which are ready to be supplied immediately. The other 300 would need to be modernised before they could be sent. Nelditz states that a request for modernisation has been submitted to the German government on a number of occasions but that there had been no response. Nelditz also reveals that the German government has discussed the possibility of reducing the range of the Taurus missile with the manufacturer, but that no decision had been made and again, no orders have been placed. This confirms that the range of the Taurus missile (which would allow Ukraine to strike targets deep inside Russia) was a cause for concern for the German government, but that despite this, no action was taken to address this. Jonathan describes this as "frustrating" because the German government appears to have made no effort to progress the issue and is giving the impression that they are not serious about supplying the missiles.

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UK to co-produce drones with Ukraine

🎦 13:34-21:27⏩

Jonathan discusses a report in RBC-Ukraine which reveals that the UK will co-produce drones with Ukraine. This follows on from the recently announced £2.5bn ($3.2bn) aid package for Ukraine, £200m of which has been allocated for the drone programme. The drones will be manufactured in both the UK and Ukraine. The British ambassador to Ukraine, Martin Harris, was recently interviewed by European Pravda and was quoted as saying that Ukraine has extensive experience in using drones and that there was a great deal of interest in collaboration. This will involve sharing expertise and will be mutually beneficial. Jonathan highlights that this is not simply a charitable donation to Ukraine, but will involve a great deal of knowledge sharing. The UK has a "troubled history" with drone procurement, often wasting a lot of money on larger drones such as Reapers, which this war has demonstrated, are not as useful. Working with Ukraine will allow the UK to benefit from their first-hand experience of using drones and will mean that UK drone development going forward will be tailored and based on real-world experience. Jonathan states that "there's no better test bed than an actual war". Jonathan believes that this will result in a great deal of "data processing and data swapping" between NATO countries and that the feedback loop will prove invaluable. He uses the example of the Bradley fighting vehicles supplied by the US, which have proven very effective in recent engagements against Russian tanks. The footage from these engagements will be studied closely by US military officials to see how best to use the vehicles. Jonathan ends the section with a quick aside "anyway I digress".

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Poland supplies SA-3 Neva (S-125) Air Defence System to Ukraine

🎦 21:27-22:01⏩

Jonathan reports that Poland has supplied Ukraine with SA-3 Neva (S-125) short-range, low to medium altitude air defence system. He highlights that in addition to the launchers themselves, Ukraine is also receiving radar and other capabilities that will all help to strengthen Ukraine's air defences.

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MAGA Supporters donate money to Russia?

🎦 22:01-24:19⏩

Jonathan discusses a worrying development whereby MAGA supporters appear to be donating money to Russia. Jonathan shows a Telegram post from a Russian account where a 122mm artillery shell is shown with the words "MAGA Trump 2024 Communism" written on it. The account is soliciting donations for what it describes as "Russian Humanitarian Aid" and claims that for €20, donors can have a personalised message written on a shell. Jonathan is unsure whether this is genuine or whether it is a cynical attempt by Russia to sow discord. He states that either way, it is very worrying that Russia is attempting to align itself with MAGA supporters and Trump in particular. He states that this is not a surprise given that it is clear that Russia actively wanted Trump to win the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and highlights that this is not a controversial statement. He then goes on to say that "you can be doing the right thing and have nefarious actors want you to do that" (a thinly veiled criticism of Trump). He summarises by saying that he believes Trump is not doing the right thing and that this is why nefarious actors support him.

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Turkey to ratify Sweden's NATO accession

🎦 24:19-24:51⏩

Jonathan reports that the Turkish parliament are due to ratify Sweden's accession to NATO today. He is unsure whether this will be straightforward as Hungary have also stated that they are reluctant to allow Sweden to join the alliance.

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Polish Prime Minister criticises EU neutrality

🎦 24:52-26:32⏩

Jonathan reports that the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, has been critical of EU nations who have adopted a neutral stance following the Russian invasion. Tusk has stated that "Today, anyone in the free world who pretends to be neutral maintains an even distance or demonstrates it towards Ukraine and Russia deserves the darkest place in political hell". Jonathan believes that these comments may be aimed at countries in the Global South, Switzerland, Austria and even Ireland. Jonathan describes this as "strong rhetoric" but states that Tusk also went on to say that "Ukraine, you are not alone, even in the sense that this struggle is taking place in every European country". Tusk also confirmed that Poland has joined the Vilnius Declaration of the G7 regarding security guarantees for Ukraine and that Poland will be appointing a government envoy for the restoration of Ukraine. Jonathan welcomes this, stating that it is "good stuff from Poland" and that it is "great to see the new government stepping up and going straight to Ukraine and delivering rhetoric" but hopes that the aid package will match the rhetoric.

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Viktor Orban (Hungary) and Robert Fico (Slovakia) - "Problem People"

🎦 26:32-27:55⏩

Jonathan shows a photo of Viktor Orban (Hungary) and Robert Fico (Slovakia) and describes them as "problem people". He describes Orban as looking like "Jabba the Hut" and Fico as "Mr Toad". He highlights how both men have close links with Trump and that Orban in particular was very complimentary about Putin, describing him as "a great leader, really strong". He then states that "he loves a dictator, does old Donald". He jokes about how much he likes the photo.

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Kazakhstan bans Russian propagandist

🎦 27:55-29:49⏩

Jonathan moves on to discuss Kazakhstan, which he describes as being firmly in Russia's sphere of influence. He then goes on to say that "Russia seems to be losing their grip on the region at large" before interrupting himself to say "Oops, too much talking, not enough tea"! He highlights how Armenia and Azerbaijan are moving away from Russia and that Kazakhstan also seems to be making similar moves. He reports that Kazakhstan has banned Russian propagandist Tina Kandelaki from entering the country, after she criticised Kazakhstan for renaming railway stations from Russian into Kazakh. She also described Kazakhs as "Mankurt", which Jonathan assumes is an insult. He reads out a quote from Kandelaki where she says "as the experience of the Baltics shows, this is a very dangerous trend...they closed Russian schools, removed Soviet monuments, banned the Russian language and finally kicked pensioners out into the cold". Jonathan states that this is exactly what happened in the Baltics, but that this happened because of Russia. He finishes the section by saying that Kazakhstan's actions are very revealing.

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Apple fined $12.3m by Russia

🎦 29:49-32:03⏩

Jonathan reports that Bill Browder, a prominent critic of Putin, has slammed Apple for agreeing to pay $12.3m fine to Russia. He says that Browder is self-proclaimed as "Putin's biggest enemy". He then jokes that "I can safely say that I don't use Apple, so I'm alright Jack"! The fine relates to a ruling by a Moscow court, which found the US tech company guilty of abusing its dominant market position on the App Store. He highlights how the payment of this fine will go directly into the Russian budget and that a third of this will be used to fund the war in Ukraine. He then states that this is a typical issue that Apple has, but that it is even more galling given the current situation.

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Finland establishes parliamentary group to support Belarusian democratic movement

🎦 32:03-34:22⏩

Jonathan reports that Finland has established a new parliamentary group dedicated to supporting the Belarusian democratic movement. This brings the total number of countries who have established similar groups to 24. Jonathan states that there are a lot of exiled Belarusian politicians who are unable to return to their country because of Lukashenko, who he describes as "effectively a dictator". He explains that following the last Belarusian election, which saw widespread accusations of vote rigging, Putin installed Lukashenko as leader. He describes this as a difficult situation for many Belarusians who would like to follow in Ukraine's footsteps. Jonathan believes that Belarus is often forgotten about and states that it is a very important country. He does not believe that Lukashenko has helped Putin as much as he would have liked because he is aware how unpopular this would be. However, Jonathan also highlights that Lukashenko is in a difficult position because he knows that if he does not help Putin enough, he will be killed. He uses the example of Lukashenko's foreign minister who was assassinated by the Russians for "not towing the Kremlin party line". He summarises this by saying "I despise Lukashenko. He is a dictator, but he also is in a difficult place being that dictator."

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Wrap up

🎦 34:22-34:27⏩

Jonathan signs off, telling viewers that he has rambled on enough.

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