Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If Russia speaks, it lies."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:31⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the first part of the Ukraine War News Update for 18th July 2024. He mentions facing IT issues due to an OBS update that has messed up his driver settings. Jonathan also mentions an issue with his sticky note syncing, which is where he gets all his links from. He apologises for being two hours behind schedule.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures for Russian Losses
🎦 00:31-01:10⏩
Jonathan discusses the Ukrainian general staff figures for Russian losses for the previous day, noting the usual caveats apply. He states that 1,130 personnel lost is a high number, but it falls within the average seen for the past month. He also mentions that seven tanks lost is fairly average and that 12 armoured personnel vehicles lost is slightly below average.
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Vehicles and Fuel Tanks Lost
🎦 01:10-02:57⏩
Jonathan highlights the increasing number of vehicles and fuel tanks lost by the Russians. He points to a steep upward trend on Dell's daily updated stats, indicating a rise in losses. Jonathan notes that 92 vehicles and fuel tanks lost is a high number, ranking among the highest daily losses in this category, despite not being the highest ever recorded. He speculates that these losses likely include motorcycles and golf buggies, highlighting the poor state of Russian equipment.
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Russian Artillery Losses
🎦 02:57-03:56⏩
Jonathan discusses the significant losses of Russian artillery, highlighting the daily loss of 54 artillery systems. He states that Russia is facing a major issue as they have very few facilities capable of producing barrels, leading them to rely on outdated and repurposed equipment. He mentions that the Russians are losing a lot of equipment and are not manufacturing new howitzers and self-propelled guns. Jonathan also notes that a factory producing self-propelled guns may have been on fire the previous night.
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Andrew Perpetua's Loss Stats
🎦 03:56-05:40⏩
Jonathan references Andrew Perpetua's daily loss statistics, which show a significant difference in losses between Ukrainian and Russian forces. He highlights that for every six pieces of Ukrainian combat equipment lost, the Russians lost over 20. Notably, the vast majority of Russian combat losses are either abandoned or destroyed, indicating a severe and irreversible loss of assets. Jonathan considers this a significant advantage for the Ukrainians.
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Ukrainian Losses
🎦 05:40-08:53⏩
Jonathan examines the Ukrainian losses, which primarily include electronic warfare equipment, an engineering vehicle, a recovery vehicle, one infantry fighting vehicle, one tank, one armoured personnel carrier, one mine-resistant ambush protected vehicle, and three artillery pieces. He notes that the Ukrainians did not lose any assets of significant value and that the majority of Russian losses are either destroyed or abandoned, highlighting the disparity in the quality and effectiveness of equipment.
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Krinke Bridgehead
🎦 09:59-13:56⏩
Jonathan addresses the reported losses of Ukrainian Marines at the Krinke bridgehead on the Dnipro River. He refutes the negative reactions to these losses, arguing that they were a necessary sacrifice to achieve a greater strategic goal. He explains that the Ukrainian forces held the bridgehead for an extended period, attracting Russian forces and inflicting significant losses on their equipment and personnel. While the loss of personnel was a major setback for the Ukrainians, the Russian losses were far greater and were achieved through a successful attrition strategy. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of understanding the context and strategic rationale behind the Ukrainian military actions and not solely focusing on the human cost.
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Putin's Desperate Peace Talks
🎦 13:56-15:06⏩
Jonathan comments on Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's renewed calls for negotiations, linking them to the significant equipment losses Russia has been experiencing. He shares analysis from various sources, including The Economist, Perun, Jompy, Mahimars, and Covert Cabal, which all point to a significant shortage of Russian military equipment. Jonathan argues that even if Russia has large numbers of equipment remaining, their condition is questionable due to the constant cycle of repair and refurbishment.
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Russian Military Equipment Shortages
🎦 15:06-17:25⏩
Jonathan provides evidence of Russia's reliance on older equipment, citing the recent shipment of T-62 tanks to the front line. He examines an article from The Economist highlighting Russia's struggles to replace lost equipment, relying primarily on refurbishing Soviet-era stocks. He discusses the limited capacity of Russian production, particularly for newer tanks, noting that even new tanks are often equipped with older parts. He emphasizes that the Russians are likely using substandard replacements, resulting in inferior equipment compared to what they could produce.
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Artillery Barrel Production
🎦 17:25-22:56⏩
Jonathan addresses the challenges facing Russian artillery production, specifically the shortage of barrels. He highlights the limited number of factories with the specialized machinery needed to produce barrels and their inability to meet the demand. He notes that Russia is resorting to cannibalizing barrels from older towed artillery to equip self-propelled howitzers. He shares insights from Richard Vareka, an open-source analyst, who estimates that around 4,800 barrels have been swapped out since the start of the year. Jonathan emphasizes that the sustainability of this practice depends on the condition of the remaining barrels and highlights the potential consequences of this practice on the effectiveness of artillery systems.
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Tank and Infantry Fighting Vehicle Shortages
🎦 22:56-23:23⏩
Jonathan discusses the dire situation facing Russia's tank and infantry fighting vehicle reserves. He states that at current attrition rates, Russian tank and infantry fighting vehicle refurbishment from storage will reach a critical point of exhaustion by the second half of next year. Jonathan also believes that this situation is already critical, evidenced by the Russians resorting to using golf buggies and motorcycles in combat. He suggests that the Russians will likely adopt a more defensive posture unless they can improve their situation, and this could become evident before the end of summer.
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Russian Calls for Negotiations
🎦 23:23-23:40⏩
Jonathan highlights the recent statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who expressed Russia's readiness for negotiations regarding Ukraine and European security issues. Jonathan, however, views these statements with skepticism, stating "If Russia speaks, it lies," and discouraging trust in any words from Putin. He believes that Russia's willingness to negotiate indicates a desperate situation.
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Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Infrastructure
🎦 23:40-24:27⏩
Jonathan discusses Russia's recent overnight attacks on Ukraine with missiles and drones. He notes that Ukrainian air defences successfully intercepted 16 Shahed drones and Kh-69/59 cruise missiles but failed to intercept a Kh-35 anti-ship missile. He speculates that the Kh-35 missile may have damaged a P-18 radar in Ukraine.
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Naval Drone Attacks on Russian Targets
🎦 24:27-30:11⏩
Jonathan reports on multiple Russian Telegram channels reporting a major naval drone attack on Novorossiysk, a primary location for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. He mentions that Crimea was also attacked with drones and that these attacks were likely targeted at several locations. He provides information on a successful Ukrainian attack on a Russian coast guard base on Lake Donuzhlav, involving sea and air drones. The attack inflicted damage on several key facilities, including a command post, ammunition depot, equipment storage, electrical substation, technical structures, and firing positions. Jonathan speculates that Lake Donuzhlav is likely located in Crimea.
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Russian Fires
🎦 30:11-31:32⏩
Jonathan reports that a drone attack in the Belgorod region of Russia is being blamed on Ukraine. He also highlights a fire at Ural Transmash, a major Russian military industrial complex in Yekaterinburg. He notes that this facility is the only one producing self-propelled artillery units. Jonathan shares information on a previous attack on a military unit in Crimea, specifically a radio node of the GRU, and provides satellite imagery suggesting damage to the targeted buildings.
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Lavrov's Calls for Negotiations
🎦 31:32-32:11⏩
Jonathan reiterates the recent calls for negotiations by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, highlighting how this signifies a difficult situation for Russia. He expresses his frustration with appeasement tactics and the pro-Russian stance of some politicians, like J.D. Vance, who have expressed support for peace talks.
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Russian Propaganda
🎦 32:11-34:25⏩
Jonathan exposes the prevalent Russian propaganda that views Ukraine and Ukrainians as non-existent or as Nazis. He quotes Anton Gerashchenko, who highlights the dangerous and pervasive nature of this rhetoric, emphasizing the Russian desire to see Ukraine and Ukrainians cease to exist. Jonathan argues that these views should be understood when considering negotiations with Russia.
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Russian Propaganda and Information Control
🎦 34:25-35:21⏩
Jonathan criticizes the Russian government's efforts to restrict information and control the information spaces within Russia. He mentions the slowdowns of WhatsApp and YouTube, citing UK intelligence reports that attribute these actions to the Russian government. He highlights the Russian government's intention to block YouTube altogether in September.
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Russian Economy
🎦 35:21-35:53⏩
Jonathan discusses the deteriorating state of the Russian economy, highlighting the Central Bank's lack of options and the declining confidence in the Ruble. He cites reports that Russia needs to borrow four trillion Rubles in 2024 through bond sales. Jonathan concludes that the economic situation in Russia is looking increasingly bleak.
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YouTube Comment Deletion
🎦 35:53-38:46⏩
Jonathan addresses the issue of comment deletion on YouTube. He explains that he is not personally deleting comments and that the deletions are likely being done by YouTube itself. He acknowledges that YouTube moderators may be involved but clarifies that the primary cause is likely YouTube's automated moderation system. Jonathan explains the system's sensitivity to certain keywords, particularly those related to Russia or Ukraine, and highlights the difficulty of understanding why certain comments are hidden or deleted. He suspects that Russian bots may be involved in reporting comments that are critical of Russia or supportive of Ukraine.
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Jdog Rules' Decision to Join the Military
🎦 38:46-40:05⏩
Jonathan shares a comment from a viewer, Jdog Rules, who expresses his decision to join the military due to the Ukraine War and other global events. Jdog Rules desires to be part of a force that can respond to crises and stand for what is right. Jonathan admires Jdog Rules' decision, calling it the ultimate decision to put one's principles into action and support what one believes in.
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Wrap up
🎦 40:05-40:12⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and encourages them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He bids farewell, promising to speak to them soon.
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