Ukraine War Update NEWS: Bumper Overnight & Other News, Putin Speech Analysis
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Table of Contents 📖
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"If I understand this correctly, quote, this is kind of how he's translating Putin, our invasion of Ukraine has resulted in Ukraine invading Russia. So to prevent Ukraine invading Russia, we may need to reinvade that part of Ukraine that we failed to invade successfully last year. Got it."
Hello Team!
- Jonathan thanks viewers for joining and points to a live chat he had with Georgie from Ukraine Matters the previous night
- He thanks several people for gifting memberships during the live stream
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Ukraine General Staff reports 680 liquidated Russian personnel, a slight uptick from previous days
- Significant losses of tanks, APVs, artillery systems, MLRS, anti-aircraft systems, drones, cruise missiles, vehicles and special equipment
- Weather may have hampered some activity in the counteroffensive area
Putin's Speech Analysis
- Putin rarely speaks about the war, so his recent speech is significant
- Key points:
- No need for additional mobilization, but conscripts will stay as long as needed
- Ukrainian counteroffensive is large-scale with trained reserves
- Claims Ukraine lost 160 tanks and 360 armored vehicles (likely exaggerated)
- Threatens to create a "sanitary zone" in Ukraine if attacks on Russian territory continue
- Admits Russia wanted to join NATO in the past
- Putin's statements contain misinformation and contradictions
- Meeting with pro-war bloggers suggests Putin wants alternative information sources to his military/intelligence
Overnight News
- Three out of four Kalibr cruise missiles shot down, nine out of ten drones shot down
- Odesa hit, with at least six dead and 15 injured, including a McDonald's and residential blocks
- Major Ildar Chulpanovich Mazitov confirmed killed by Ukrainian assault teams in Zaporizhzhia
- HIMARS hammering Tokmak, with at least six explosions recorded
Military Aid
- US to provide Ukraine with depleted uranium rounds
- UK announces £116m in new air defense systems and contributes extra £250m to Ukraine fund
- UK helping repair/modernize Soviet-era Ukrainian gear
- US announces $325m aid package with Bradleys, Strykers, ammo after Ukraine loses some equipment
- Ukraine integrates Soviet and Western air defense systems into centralized command
- Ukrainian troops training on Leopard 1A5 tanks in Germany
Geopolitics and Disinfo
- Evidence points to Ukraine, not Russia, being behind Nord Stream pipeline attack
- Evil Gherkin criticizes Putin's hypocrisy in opposing Ukraine joining NATO when he wanted Russia to join
- France uncovers major Russian disinformation campaign against Ukraine
- New Zealand media outlet edited by "pro-Kremlin" actor to include Russian talking points
- Belarus dictator Lukashenko threatens nuclear holocaust if West keeps supporting Ukraine
Wrap up
Jonathan hopes there were lots of insights for viewers to take away from the lengthy update. He signs off until next time.
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