Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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"Don't be afraid to say 'I don't know'. Just have a bit of what's called epistemic humility."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides his usual caveats about the accuracy of Ukrainian released Russian losses figures, but believes they have been somewhat tighter over the last couple of months. Key losses for 7th March:
- 700 liquidated personnel (down from over 1,000 the previous day which coincided with hits on Melitopol, Mariupol and Volnovakha)
- 4 tanks, 9 APCs, 7 artillery systems, 3 drones and 7 fuel tanks/vehicles
- 2 Shahed 136/131 drones shot down
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- Video of 5 Russian tanks destroyed a few km from the front line in Luhansk. Likely a staging ground rather than a Ukrainian advance.
- James Vasquez, a prolific American soldier fighting for Ukraine, shared a video of his transport hit by mortar fire. The driver survived but sadly his commander "Da Vinci", fighting since 2014, was killed.
- Major Andre Lukanyuk, commander of the 80th Air Assault Brigade, was killed at a command center near Chasiv Yar targeted by a Russian airstrike.
Bakhmut
In a defense briefing, Western officials estimated Russia has sustained 20-30,000 casualties (killed and wounded) trying to capture Bakhmut, while Ukrainian losses were "significantly less". If accurate, Russia may have sustained more casualties than the US did in 20 years in Afghanistan. Officials believe Ukraine can still hold and resupply Bakhmut, and could last another month or choose to withdraw within a week. The course of the long-running battle remains uncertain. Zelensky stated Russian forces will have an open road to seize other critical settlements in eastern Ukraine if they capture Bakhmut. Jonathan notes this is a step away from just holding Bakhmut for attritional purposes, to having operational value.
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Demining Efforts
After 10 months of work, Ukraine has only made safe 2% of the landmines and explosives left by Russia, according to Kyiv Polit. Jonathan highlighted the sheer scale of the demining job ahead in a recent video.
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Military Aid
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- The US military is looking into whether AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM), designed for Western fighter jets, can be mounted on Ukraine's existing MiGs. The missiles have a range of 50-160km.
- Hungary confirmed it is participating in training Ukrainian military medics for humanitarian purposes.
- Russian media alleges Ukraine has begun using the Hrim-2 short-range ballistic missile system with a 300-500km range, capable of reaching the Crimean bridge and Moscow. No evidence yet but Ukraine is increasing its indigenous munition production.
- The EU moved closer to joint procurement of ammunition for Ukraine. Member states are encouraged to offer spare stockpiles, with up to 90% of costs reimbursed by Brussels. The UK is not involved post-Brexit.
- Switzerland reiterated its opposition to providing military aid to Ukraine or countries that will pass it on, due to neutrality. This likely takes German plans to buy Swiss ammunition for Gepard anti-aircraft guns off the table.
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Nord Stream Sabotage
The New York Times reported that new US intelligence suggests a pro-Ukrainian group may have carried out the Nord Stream pipeline attack last year. Officials said there was no evidence that President Zelensky or his top lieutenants were involved or that the perpetrators were directed by any Ukrainian government officials. The saboteurs were most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some combination. However, officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained, or any details of the strength of the evidence. They said there were no firm conclusions about it. German newspaper Zeit reported that the operation was carried out by a team of 6 people using a yacht rented by a company based in Poland, apparently owned by 2 Ukrainians. The group consisted of a captain, 2 divers, 2 diving assistants, and a doctor, who transported the explosives to the site using professionally forged passports. Jonathan urges caution, noting the intelligence is low confidence and the public can become less informed when such assessments are reported as fact. He contrasts the vague US reports with Zeit's more detailed reporting. The story conveniently provides a counter-narrative to Seymour Hersh's widely-circulated (but questionable) report alleging US involvement. Both the US and Russia potentially benefit from this latest claim. Jonathan maintains his view that he doesn't know who was responsible, and the latest news muddies the waters further. He previously estimated a 55% chance of Russian culpability vs 45% US.
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Other News
- Massive demonstrations in Georgia as the government passed "foreign agent" laws which could end hopes of joining the EU. Seen as very reminiscent of Ukraine in 2014.
- UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is in Kyiv to meet with Zelensky, mainly about the grain deal.
- After Russia invaded Ukraine, Greek shipping oligarchs shifted oil tankers to help Russia, making money as others pulled back. Now they are selling ships to help Putin build a "shadow fleet" to avoid G7 oil price cap.
- 130 Ukrainian military personnel, including 87 Mariupol defenders and 4 women, returned home from Russian captivity in a prisoner exchange.
- Electricity and street lights are back on in Kharkiv for first time since the war began, bringing a sense of normality and reflecting the robust repair of energy infrastructure.
Wrap Up
Jonathan advises viewers to watch developments in Georgia and with the Nord Stream story. He cautions against jumping to conclusions and urges "epistemic humility" - being willing to say "I don't know" rather than clinging to a view just because you read it somewhere. He shares a formative experience from his university days where he caught himself vociferously arguing for a position he didn't really know much about or have any attachment to. He realized it was psychology, not rational justification, that was driving his behavior. Jonathan encourages viewers to take a step back and examine if they are justified in a view or just psychologically motivated. Don't jump in "just because" - reflect on whether you are rationally justified in defending a position.
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