Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid

"If the US gave 4% of their GDP in aid to Ukraine, Ukraine would have, they would have no other needs, I would argue, they'd just, they'd have no other needs. In other words, if the US did what Estonia had done, job done, Ukraine could, could sew this war up."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:37⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War Update and explains this is part B of the update for 23/02/2024, focused on military aid. There is so much news that he has had to split the video into separate parts. He may or may not have time to cover the geopolitics.

Return to top⤴️

US: Ukraine Military Shortages - Catastrophic by March?

🎦 00:37-02:32⏩

Jonathan discusses a report from _NBC_ news that estimates that the Ukrainian military could face catastrophic shortages by late March. A US official is quoted as saying "By spring Ukraine faces a potentially catastrophic shortage of ammunition and air defences that could effectively turn the tide of the war and lend Russian President Vladimir Putin a significant advantage" Jonathan agrees that this is a critical time for Ukraine and expresses sadness at seeing them struggle with ammunition shortages on the front lines, particularly artillery shells. He believes that the lack of progress in US Congress over the past five months has impacted the level of aid. Jonathan highlights that there are alternative options for procuring artillery ammunition from countries outside of Europe such as Turkey and South Africa. He acknowledges that ramping up production within Europe will take time.

Return to top⤴️

Czech Republic: EU Military Aid Initiative - £1.5bn

🎦 02:32-03:11⏩

Jonathan reports that according to the _Financial Times,_ some EU countries are financing a Czech initiative to send artillery shells to Ukraine. He highlights that previously France, Greece and Cyprus had vetoed using EU funds to purchase arms from outside the EU. He explains how he believes the funding is working, with individual EU countries providing funds bilaterally to Czech Republic who are sourcing the ammunition from outside the EU.

Return to top⤴️

Canada: Military Aid for Czech Initiative - £20m

🎦 03:11-03:20⏩

Canada has provided 30 million Canadian Dollars (£20 million) to the Czech military aid initiative.

Return to top⤴️

Denmark: Artillery Shells and Military Aid for Ukraine - £1.1bn

🎦 03:20-04:50⏩

Jonathan reports that Denmark has secured 15,000 artillery shells for Ukraine and a new military aid package worth 1.7 billion Danish Krone (£1.1 billion) has been approved which includes funding for a further 15,000 artillery shells to be sent to Ukraine. Jonathan infers from this that Denmark will send their remaining stockpiles directly to Ukraine, with the funding being used to procure new shells. The new aid package will also include material and ammunition for air defence, mine clearance, drones, radars, communication equipment and more drone equipment. Although welcome, Jonathan points out that there could still be months to wait.

Return to top⤴️

Denmark: F-16s for Ukraine by Summer 2024?

🎦 04:50-06:03⏩

Denmark has announced it will send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by Summer 2024. The first cohort of Ukrainian pilots will finish their training in Summer 2024. Jonathan discusses whether Summer 2024 is a realistic timeframe and highlights the many factors to consider e.g. ensuring the Ukrainian pilots have sufficient experience on the F-16s, training on the maintenance, logistics, airbases etc. He points out that there is likely to be an experience gap between the Ukrainian F-16 pilots and the Russian pilots, who are likely to have more experience on the Russian equivalent, the Sukhoi.

Return to top⤴️

Sweden: Gripen Jets - Ukraine Pilot Training "Under the Radar"?

🎦 06:03-07:50⏩

Six months after Ukrainian pilots tested Swedish Gripen fighter jets, Saab (Swedish aerospace company) has hinted that government and industry efforts are ongoing to get them to Ukraine. Jonathan speculates that this is a positive sign and that Ukraine is already being trained on the Gripen jets "under the radar". He believes that this is a sensible approach as it would be a waste of time if, after many months of discussion about the suitability of the Gripen jets, Ukrainian pilots then had to begin training. He highlights that it would have been a good idea to begin training pilots on the F-16s at the beginning of the war "just in case" they were approved for transfer.

Return to top⤴️

Sweden: Gripen Jets for Ukraine Contingent on NATO Accession?

🎦 07:50-09:25⏩

Jonathan reports that Sweden is considering sending Gripen jets to Ukraine, but a decision hinges on their accession to NATO. Saab has confirmed this is the case. A Saab executive is quoted as saying "We expect that if such a decision was granted approval by the Swedish government, it would be a fairly rapid process to send the aircraft to Ukraine. We are moving in the right direction currently" Jonathan interprets this as a cryptic admission that Ukrainian pilots are already receiving training on the Gripen jets.

Return to top⤴️

Hungary: Parliament to Vote on Sweden's NATO Accession - 26/02/2024

🎦 09:25-10:26⏩

Jonathan reports that Hungary's parliament could vote on Sweden's accession to NATO as early as 26th February 2024. The Hungarian government has indicated it will vote in favour. Jonathan analyses that given that a senior member of the ruling party in Hungary, the Swedish Prime Minister, the Swedish Government, the Swedish public and Saab all want this to happen, it is very likely to go ahead. From Saab's perspective this would be a huge opportunity for the company. Jonathan extols the virtues of the Gripen jet, describing it as "a very good fighter" that has been designed to counter Soviet aircraft, has the ability to take off from roads and short runways and can fire Meteor missiles which are ideally suited for Ukraine's needs.

Return to top⤴️

Sweden: Ukrainian Pilots Tested Gripens in Autumn 2023

🎦 10:26-11:20⏩

Saab has confirmed to _Defense News_ that Ukrainian pilots tested the Gripen jets last Autumn. Jonathan references Jussi Halmetoye, a former Gripen pilot, who states that although teaching a pilot to fly the aircraft is straightforward, this is only one aspect. Pilots also need to be trained on the combat systems and this takes longer. On average, it takes 4-6 months to train a pilot on a Gripen jet. He adds that Ukrainian and Swedish language differences are easy to overcome but the training on the combat systems, maintenance and procedures takes much longer.

Return to top⤴️

USA and Netherlands: F-16s for Ukraine Post Training

🎦 11:20-12:46⏩

Jonathan confirms that the only Western fighter jets formally approved for transfer to Ukraine are US and Dutch F-16s, which will be sent once pilot training is complete. He speculates that Ukrainian pilots must already be training on the Gripen jets, otherwise it would be another 4-6 months added to the timeline after they are formally approved for transfer. He reiterates his previous points about the strengths of the Gripen jet, adding that they are cheaper to fly than F-16s, have a smaller maintenance footprint and don't need to operate from a traditional airbase. He describes how he drove along a highway in Ukraine that had been adapted and made flatter and suspects this is to enable it to be used as a runway.

Return to top⤴️

Poland: MiG-29 to Ukraine

🎦 14:07-14:25⏩

Jonathan shares a video clip of a Mig-29 crossing the Polish border into Ukraine and speculates that it is either a repaired jet or a new one from another source.

Return to top⤴️

USA: Blackhawk Helicopter for Ukrainian Special Forces

🎦 14:25-15:02⏩

A US Blackhawk Helicopter has been spotted in service with Ukrainian special forces. Jonathan explains that this is likely to be a private acquisition that has been heavily modified.

Return to top⤴️

Germany: Taurus Missiles - Bundestag Vote

🎦 15:02-16:38⏩

Jonathan reports that there were two votes in the Bundestag (German Parliament) relating to Taurus missiles. The first vote, put forward by the opposition which explicitly mentioned sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine, did not pass. The second vote, from the coalition, was worded less specifically but did pass. The wording of this vote was "to provide Ukraine with long-range systems for delivering 'point strikes deep in the rear of the Russian aggressor". Although there is debate as to whether this wording implies the Taurus missile, one commentator believes this to be the case. Despite this, Jonathan does not believe it is likely that Taurus missiles will be sent to Ukraine. He refers back to a recent interview with a German Aid to Ukraine who stated that there is only a 10% chance of the Taurus missiles being approved. Jonathan suspects that the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is waiting for either the US to send long range ATACMS or even cruise missiles before agreeing to send the Taurus missiles.

Return to top⤴️

Germany: Public Support for Military Aid to Ukraine Increasing

🎦 16:38-18:37⏩

Jonathan shares the results of a recent survey from Germany which indicate that public support for providing military aid to Ukraine is increasing. When asked "Do you believe that European countries should supply Ukraine with more weapons and ammunition?", 62% agreed, up from 52% in January. The survey also revealed that 50% of German respondents felt that military strength was the best way to deter Russian aggression, with only 35% favouring political compromise.

Return to top⤴️

UK: New Military Aid Package for Ukraine: Brimstone Missiles

🎦 18:37-19:13⏩

The UK has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine. Grant Shapps confirmed that a further 200 Brimstone anti-tank missiles will be sent. Jonathan explains that these have been used effectively on the Supercat (a high speed assault and patrol craft), can also be fired from trucks and potentially from other platforms. He believes them to be good missiles.

Return to top⤴️

UK: Training for 10,000 Ukrainian Troops

🎦 19:13-19:20⏩

The UK will also provide training to a further 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers.

Return to top⤴️

User Comments: A-10 Warthogs and Typhoons for Ukraine?

🎦 19:20-20:54⏩

Jonathan addresses some comments from viewers. One viewer asked about sending A-10 Warthogs and Typhoons to Ukraine. He responds that A-10 Warthogs, which are essentially flying tanks, would be too vulnerable to Russian air defences and would only be used if Ukraine had air superiority, which at present they do not. Jonathan discusses the merits and disadvantages of the Typhoon jets and believes that although they are good aircraft they are not the right choice for Ukraine at present. He suspects it is unlikely that Typhoons would be sent to Ukraine, especially as F-16s and Gripens are more likely. Jonathan explains that this is due to the fact that in a fast moving and dynamic situation it's best to limit the types of military equipment and that it's better to get Gripen and F-16s right. He draws comparisons with the issues of sending different types of tanks.

Return to top⤴️

USA: ATACMS - Presidential Drawdown Authority

🎦 20:54-22:13⏩

Jonathan addresses a comment from a previous guest on his live stream, Colby Badwa, who stated that President Biden could use a presidential drawdown to send 1200 ATACMS to Ukraine under Section 506 of the Foreign Assistance Act. Jonathan is puzzled as to why this isn't happening as it would negate the need for the new bill. He suspects that there is something else going on but doesn't understand what it is.

Return to top⤴️

USA: Military Aid as a Percentage of GDP

🎦 22:13-26:29⏩

Jonathan discusses US military aid to Ukraine in the context of GDP. He highlights that although the US has provided the most in terms of absolute value, as a percentage of GDP it is at the bottom of the list. He explains the concept of GDP using a simple analogy of a bank account. He gives the example of Estonia which has given 4% of its GDP. He calculates that if the US were to match this, it would equate to trillions of dollars and this would likely be enough to win the war. He emphasises that this is not a criticism of the US, more of an observation. He points out that although many countries such as Belgium are criticised for not providing enough, as a percentage of GDP they have actually contributed more. He explains how this works in the context of the EU, with individual countries' contributions going into a central pot. He gives the examples of Slovakia (1.5%), Denmark (over 3%) and Lithuania (2%).

Return to top⤴️

USA: $60bn Ukraine Aid - Spending Breakdown

🎦 26:29-26:43⏩

Jonathan discusses how the $60bn US aid package will be spent. He states that it is estimated that 64% will be spent within the US and 36% outside the US. He contrasts this with a figure of 90% that he believes was estimated for previous spending.

Return to top⤴️

International: M113 Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs) for Ukraine

🎦 26:43-27:46⏩

Jonathan is enthused by the news that Ukraine has received dozens of M113 Armoured Personnel Carriers. He explains that these will be used for medical evacuations (Medivacs). The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has confirmed this and stated that they are expecting hundreds more from international partners. Jonathan explains that older APCs such as the M113 (and the Dutch Ypr 765) are often the first armoured vehicles to be sent as countries are often reluctant to give away their more modern equipment. He highlights how useful they are in terms of reliability and speed.

Return to top⤴️

Bulgaria: 100 BTR APCs for Ukraine - Romanian Logistics

🎦 27:46-28:17⏩

Bulgaria has promised 100 BTR Armoured Personnel Carriers to Ukraine, but due to logistical issues is not in a position to deliver them. Jonathan reports that a Romanian company has stepped in and offered to deliver them.

Return to top⤴️

Czech Republic/Ukraine: Licence to Produce NATO Standard Firearms

🎦 28:17-29:05⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukroboronprom, a Ukrainian state-controlled defence manufacturer, has been granted a licence to produce NATO standard CZ Bren 2 assault rifles in Ukraine. He believes this to be significant as it is a step closer to NATO standardisation.

Return to top⤴️

Ukraine: IMF Loan - $880m

🎦 29:05-29:21⏩

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached an agreement with Ukraine on a $880m loan, with the first tranche due imminently.

Return to top⤴️

Russia: Artillery Ammunition Production

🎦 29:21-31:21⏩

Jonathan reports that Russia is primarily firing artillery shells produced in 2022 and 2023, suggesting that although production is ongoing, they have depleted their stockpiles. He questions the long term sustainability of Russian artillery ammunition production and highlights that they are now reliant on supplies from North Korea. He cites reports that suggest Russia has had to reduce its artillery fire to 10,000 rounds per day from a peak of 60,000.

Return to top⤴️

Russia: Artillery Systems Production

🎦 31:21-37:02⏩

Jonathan analyses a thread from Twitter that looks at Russian artillery production. He explains how a Twitter user has identified four key factories that produce new artillery systems and components for howitzers and self-propelled guns in Russia. Jonathan explains that although it has been claimed that the Russians are producing 200-300 new howitzers per month, the Ukrainian Army estimate that they are only able to produce 30-50 artillery barrels per year. Jonathan concludes, based on the information presented in the thread, that although the Russians have large stockpiles of artillery systems, they are having to reactivate these due to the challenges of producing new artillery pieces. He adds that a fire at the Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant, which produces engines, may have impacted their capacity. Jonathan is particularly interested in the point that Russia can only produce 30-50 new barrels per year, yet 49 artillery pieces were destroyed in a single day. This, he says, highlights the challenges faced by the Russians.

Return to top⤴️

Russia: Fundraising for Starlink in Ukraine?

🎦 37:02-38:03⏩

A Russian military blogger has been fundraising for Starlink systems in Ukraine. The blogger shared that two Starlink units, along with a six-month subscription, cost 219,000 Rubles (£1,900). Jonathan observes that this is a 40% mark-up. He then questions why the Russians are able to use Starlink and highlights that it suggests that geofencing is not in place. He finds it bizarre that Russian forces are able to benefit from Starlink technology.

Return to top⤴️

Russia: New AI Boat Drone - "Afalina"

🎦 38:03-39:49⏩

Jonathan reports that the Russians are testing a new AI enabled Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) called "Afalina". He speculates that this could be used to counter Ukrainian USVs such as the "Sea Baby". He reminds viewers that the Russians, along with their allies Iran, China and North Korea, are constantly developing new weapons.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap up

🎦 39:49-40:00⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.

Return to top⤴️