Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:27⏩

Jonathan welcomes viewers to another video and explains that this is the second part of his Ukraine War Update for 25/03/2024. He has finally sorted out the lighting issue with his camera. Jonathan mentions that before the military aid update, he wants to go back to the missile attacks that took place in Kyiv that morning. Thankfully there were only three injuries.

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Kyiv Missile Attack Update

🎦 00:27-02:53⏩

Jonathan reports that the number of injured in the Kyiv missile attacks has risen to seven. The missiles caused significant damage to buildings, including a gym in the city. It appears a Patriot air defence system intercepted two hypersonic missiles (either Onyx or Zircon) that were targeting the city. This is positive news, given that these missiles were previously thought to be unstoppable. Jonathan explains that although the missiles were intercepted, the falling debris still has the potential to cause considerable damage due to the speeds they travel at. This explains why the gym was destroyed, despite the missiles being intercepted by the air defence system.

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Military Aid - Germany - Far-reaching rocket artillery capability coalition

🎦 02:53-09:46⏩

Jonathan encourages his viewers to follow "German Aid to Ukraine" on Twitter (@geraidua), explaining that the Twitter handle stands for "Germany Deutschland Aid to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Ukraine". There has been much discussion recently about the creation of various coalitions of countries that will be providing military aid to Ukraine. Jonathan provides the example of the drone coalition that has been established between the UK, Latvia and Canada. Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, recently spoke about a new coalition, the "far-reaching rocket artillery capability coalition", that will include Poland, Germany and France. This led to speculation that Ukraine was about to receive long-range missiles that could be fired deep into Russian territory. Jonathan explains that, according to analysis by "German Aid to Ukraine", this may not be the case. Quoting directly from the "German Aid to Ukraine" website, Jonathan provides further detail about the weapons that could potentially be supplied to Ukraine as part of this new coalition. These include:

• M30A2 (84km range)
• M31A2 (84km range)
• Extended Range Guided Multiple Launch Artillery Rocket System (GMLRS) (150km range). Jonathan reminds viewers that Ukraine has already received around 20 GMLRS from the US that were fired from HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System).
• Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) - joint production between Saab and Boeing - cheaper than HIMARS but with a range of 150km. Jonathan notes that one GLSDB was discovered near Kramatorsk in February, but that it's unclear how many Ukraine has in its arsenal.

Jonathan points out that these weapons would require large orders to be placed with US defence companies and suggests it may be quicker to supply Ukraine from US Army stockpiles, at least in the short term. The Army Tactical Missile System (ATACM) is another possibility, although this is classed as a cluster munition, and Germany is a signatory of the Oslo Convention that prohibits the use of cluster bombs. Jonathan therefore considers it unlikely that Germany would supply these weapons to Ukraine, although other members of the coalition may be prepared to do so.

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Military Aid - France - Emmanuel Macron praises German contribution

🎦 09:46-11:13⏩

Jonathan reports that French President Emmanuel Macron has praised Germany's financial contributions to Ukraine following criticism from other countries. Macron urged other countries to welcome and praise Germany's efforts, rather than point the finger. Macron also hinted at increased co-operation between France and Germany and suggested that the situation may require "more radical and innovative solutions" that may involve putting troops on the ground. Jonathan welcomes Macron's statement, adding "That's exactly the kind of rhetoric we want to hear...and it would be great to hear that from Germany as well".

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Military Aid - USA - Will aid be delivered to Ukraine?

🎦 11:13-18:29⏩

Jonathan expresses concern about the delivery of US military aid to Ukraine following recent events in US politics, which he believes could have serious consequences for Ukraine. He questions whether US support for Ukraine will continue, particularly given the Republicans' slim majority in the House of Representatives following the resignation of Mike Gallagher, who has left his seat vacant until the November election. Jonathan explains the circumstances surrounding Gallagher's resignation, including his decision to stand down early in order to prevent his seat being filled by a MAGA Republican. He also discusses Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski's announcement that she cannot support Trump, suggesting she may choose to stand as an independent in the forthcoming election. If this happens, it is possible that the Democrats will gain another seat in the Senate. Jonathan then turns his attention to the current status of the bill to approve the latest round of aid for Ukraine. Although the Senate has now approved the bill (70 - 29 votes), it is still to be approved by the House. Jonathan criticises Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson's decision to delay the vote, accusing him of "delay, delay, delay" tactics. He argues that if the Republicans were truly committed to providing aid to Ukraine, they would push the existing Senate bill through without delay, rather than seek to make amendments that will only make the deal worse for Ukraine. He urges Republicans watching the video to explain why they disagree with his assessment. Although Johnson has now stated that the House will vote on the bill after Easter, it is likely that he will seek to make changes. This includes making part of the aid a loan rather than a grant, which is unacceptable. Jonathan argues that the Democrats are far more committed to supplying aid to Ukraine than the Republicans.

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Military Aid - Japan - $230 million loan to Ukraine

🎦 17:51-18:29⏩

Jonathan announces that Japan will be providing Ukraine with a $230 million loan to help restore the country's agricultural industry.

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Geopolitics - Moldova - Russia waging a hybrid war

🎦 18:29-19:49⏩

Moldova's Foreign Minister, Adrian Efros, has accused Russia of waging a hybrid war against his country, stating that although Russia has changed its tactics, it is still intent on destabilising Moldova. Jonathan argues that Russian interference is to be expected given that they have adopted similar tactics elsewhere in the region, including in Serbia, Slovakia and Hungary. He adds that the spread of disinformation from Russia is now one of the biggest global concerns. Moldovan President Maia Sandu has echoed Efros' comments, stating that there has never been a more urgent need to support Ukraine than now. Jonathan suggests that Russia is keen to influence the upcoming Moldovan elections in order to install a pro-Russian government.

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Geopolitics - Serbia - Aleksandar Vučić cracks down on anti-war Russians

🎦 19:49-23:21⏩

Jonathan corrects a comment made by a viewer (Jay in Kyiv) who mistakenly claims that there is growing anti-Putin sentiment in Serbia. In fact, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is targeting anti-war Russians living in Serbia. Jonathan refers to comments made by Vučić in which he states that Serbia will deal mercilessly with anyone who threatens the security of Serbian citizens, particularly those who have fled to Serbia following the war in Ukraine. Jonathan also reads out a tweet from Ivana Stradina in which she accuses Vučić of hypocrisy for cracking down on Russians who oppose the war in Ukraine, whilst at the same time maintaining a close relationship with Putin. Stradina claims that Serbian and Russian intelligence agencies are working together to silence anti-war sentiment. Jonathan agrees with this assessment, adding that Vučić's comments and actions are further evidence that his true sympathies lie with Putin and Russia.

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Geopolitics - Ukraine & Spain - Security agreement

🎦 23:21-23:47⏩

Jonathan reports that Ukraine and Spain are working on a bilateral security agreement based on the one already in place between the UK and Ukraine.

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Geopolitics - EU - Dependence on Russian nuclear fuel

🎦 23:47-25:15⏩

Jonathan reports that Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has urged the EU to reduce its dependence on Russian nuclear fuel. He argues that in its attempts to decarbonise, Europe is simply swapping reliance on Russian hydrocarbons for a reliance on Russian nuclear fuel. This not only undermines European energy security, but also helps to finance the war in Ukraine. Jonathan explains that because Russia is a major supplier of Uranium to the EU and because Rosatom (Russia's state-owned nuclear energy company) is responsible for building and maintaining European nuclear power plants, it is impossible to impose effective sanctions. Although there have been efforts to find alternatives to Rosatom, this will take time. Jonathan concludes that reducing Europe's dependency on Russian nuclear power will be as challenging as reducing its reliance on Russian oil and gas.

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Geopolitics - Baltic Sea - Russian jamming disrupting civilian flights

🎦 25:15-27:26⏩

Jonathan raises concerns about increased Russian jamming activity in the Baltic Sea region that is disrupting civilian air traffic. He refers to data from "Baltic Jammer" that shows that jamming has been taking place for 47 hours and has affected over 1600 flights. Jonathan displays a map that shows two large areas of jamming: one in the north covering Estonia, and a second much larger area stretching from Kaliningrad to Poland. He suggests that the jamming is deliberate and that the Russians are leaving a safe corridor for Russian aircraft flying out of Kaliningrad, whilst disrupting all other air traffic. Jonathan describes the situation as "incredible" and suggests something needs to be done about it.

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Geopolitics - USA/Russia - Trump's stance on Ukraine aid

🎦 27:26-33:32⏩

Jonathan refers to a tweet by Anne Applebaum in which she expresses concerns about Trump's influence on US foreign policy. She argues that Trump is dictating policy by proxy in order to serve Russia's interests and that this explains the lack of support for Ukraine from many in the Republican party. Jonathan agrees with this assessment and provides an explanation as to why so many Republican lawmakers are reluctant to support Ukraine. This is because they are worried that they will not receive funding from the Republican National Committee (RNC) for their re-election campaigns if they vote against Trump's wishes. Jonathan explains that this situation is forcing Republicans to choose between what they believe is right for both their country and Ukraine, and their own political futures. This in turn explains why a number of Republicans have recently decided to stand down.

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Geopolitics - UK/Russia/China/Iran - Disinformation campaign targeting the Princess of Wales

🎦 33:32-39:50⏩

Jonathan addresses the recent controversy surrounding the Princess of Wales' decision to digitally enhance a photograph. He explains that, whilst he appreciates that this may seem like a trivial matter to many, he considers it important for two reasons. Firstly, he believes it is a slippery slope as it is very difficult to police what constitutes acceptable levels of digital enhancement. This is particularly important given the rise of deep fakes and the potential for images to be manipulated. Secondly, Jonathan is concerned about reports that Russia, China and Iran are deliberately spreading disinformation about the Princess. He explains that a UK government taskforce has been set up to consider what actions need to be taken to combat disinformation and that one of the options being considered is to force social media companies to do more to prevent its spread. Jonathan expresses concerns that freedom of speech will be used as an excuse to avoid taking action. He argues that although he is a strong advocate of free speech, disinformation is dangerous, particularly during times of war. He compares disinformation to the crime of shouting "fire" in a crowded theatre and argues that governments need to take action to protect their citizens.

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Wrap up

🎦 39:50-39:58⏩

Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and says goodbye.

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"And I'm sorry like that's how I see it as well I'm not sorry that's just the reality of the situation and hopefully there will be some Republicans who are strong enough to go across the floor and vote with their conscience rather than voting with their future job prospects in mind"