Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News

"European society must realise that not only has war returned to the European continent, but that the real target is the whole of Europe."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:10⏩

• Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video.
• This is the third part of the Ukraine War News Update for 2nd November 2024.
• This video will be relatively short as there are fewer geopolitical updates today.

Return to top⤴️

French General's Warning: Europe is the Real Target

🎦 00:11-00:45⏩

• A French general, Michel Yakovlev, warns that European society needs to wake up to the fact that the war in Ukraine is not just a regional conflict.
• The real target is the whole of Europe.

Return to top⤴️

Russia's Exhaustion and Likely Frozen Conflict

🎦 00:45-02:27⏩

• Jonathan believes Russia will not be able to achieve its maximalist objectives in Ukraine, such as installing a puppet government in Kyiv.
• He predicts a frozen conflict as the most likely outcome, with neither side fully achieving its goals through negotiations.
• Russia is unlikely to advance further into Europe due to its military exhaustion in Ukraine.
• Even without a decisive victory, Russia may still retain control of some Ukrainian territory.

Return to top⤴️

The Importance of Supporting Ukraine

🎦 02:27-02:33⏩

• Jonathan emphasises the importance of continued and increased support for Ukraine.
• He believes the West is currently not doing enough.

Return to top⤴️

Russia's Political Battle Against the EU

🎦 02:34-04:16⏩

• Jonathan argues that Russia's primary adversary is not the US, but the EU.
• He posits that Putin, as a dictator, is fundamentally opposed to the EU's democratic values and its potential to hold Russia accountable.
• Russia aims to destabilise and disunite Europe through various means, including supporting anti-EU political parties and Brexit.
• Poland is actively fortifying its borders with Russia and Belarus.

Return to top⤴️

Russia's Internal Economic Problems

🎦 04:17-09:26⏩

• Jonathan highlights Russia's growing internal economic problems, citing information from OSINT sources, particularly Prune60.
• Key issues include:
  • Deteriorating railway infrastructure impacting the transportation of goods.
  • Problems in coal, chemical, and grain production.
  • Attempts to liquidate assets in the National Wealth Fund to raise cash.
  • Rising food prices, particularly for staples like eggs and butter.
  • Labour shortages due to the war and emigration leading to wage inflation.
  • Skyrocketing interest rates (currently at 21%) to combat inflation, potentially rising to 23% by the end of the year.
  • Business closures due to low profitability.
• Jonathan believes Russia's economy is in chaos due to the war in Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

The Lada Car Situation

🎦 09:26-14:05⏩

• Jonathan discusses the current state of the Russian car industry, using the Lada as an example.
• He points out inconsistencies in official documentation about Lada cars.
• Jonathan suggests that Lada cars, or at least major components, may be manufactured in China rather than Russia.
• This theory is supported by observations from an economic minister's visit to an exhibition and the increasing prevalence of Chinese cars in Russia.
• Jonathan sees this as further evidence of Russia's increasing dependence on China, becoming a vassal state in both economic and political terms.

Return to top⤴️

Slovak Prime Minister's Pro-Russia Stance

🎦 14:06-14:56⏩

• During a visit to China, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico blamed the West for the war in Ukraine.
• He praised China's peacemaking efforts and criticised Western support for Ukraine, claiming it prevents peace.
• Fico further alleged that Western leaders blocked peace deals in early 2022, accusing Ukraine's leadership of aiming for victory instead.

Return to top⤴️

Jonathan's Rebuttal of Fico's Claims

🎦 14:56-15:02⏩

• Jonathan strongly disagrees with Fico's assessment, placing the blame for the war squarely on Putin and Russia's invasion.

Return to top⤴️

FBI Exposes Russian Disinformation Campaign Supporting Trump

🎦 15:04-15:58⏩

• The FBI has revealed another Russian disinformation operation designed to boost support for Donald Trump in the upcoming US election.
• This operation involved a video shared by MAGA supporters on Twitter, falsely claiming Haitians were voting illegally in Georgia.
• The FBI, ODNI, and CISA confirmed the video's Russian origin in a joint statement.
• Jonathan warns of the growing threat of Russian disinformation campaigns targeting the international community.

Return to top⤴️

Trump's Statements on Ukraine and US Foreign Policy

🎦 15:59-16:57⏩

• Jonathan discusses recent statements made by Donald Trump at a campaign rally, where he claimed the US should not have gotten involved in Ukraine and that it is not a charitable cause.
• Trump stated:
  • "They got us into Ukraine."
  • "We should have never gone into Ukraine."
  • "If I was president, you would have never gone into Ukraine."
  • "This is not a charity event."
• Jonathan points out that no American troops are fighting in Ukraine, refuting Trump's assertion that the US "went into" Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

Jonathan's Criticism of Trump's Foreign Policy Understanding

🎦 16:57-22:05⏩

• Jonathan criticises Trump's statements, arguing they demonstrate a fundamental lack of understanding of the geopolitical situation and US foreign policy objectives.
• He believes supporting Ukraine is in the US's strategic interest, not a charitable act.
• Jonathan explains that morality in international relations is often secondary to strategic interests.
• He delves into different concepts of morality, including descriptive, prescriptive, and metaethics, to illustrate his point.
• Jonathan argues that politics is essentially morality writ large, encompassing societal and international interactions.
• He differentiates between goal-oriented morality (achieving specific outcomes) and strategic objectives (focused on national power and interests).
• Jonathan suggests that in the case of Ukraine, morality and strategy align, making it a clear-cut case for support.
• He contrasts this with situations like Iraq, Israel-Palestine, and Zimbabwe, where the moral and strategic considerations are more complex.

Return to top⤴️

Trump's Continued Misunderstanding of US Involvement in Ukraine

🎦 22:05-23:16⏩

• Jonathan reiterates that Trump's statements reveal a failure to grasp the reasons behind US involvement in Ukraine.
• He believes that either Trump has not been properly briefed on the issue or he is unable to retain the information.
• Jonathan finds it concerning that Trump continues to misunderstand this crucial aspect of US foreign policy.

Return to top⤴️

Trump's Claim that US Allies are Worse than Enemies

🎦 23:16-25:07⏩

• Jonathan expresses his outrage at another statement by Trump where he claims US allies are worse than its so-called enemies.
• This implies that countries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are less problematic than European allies such as Germany, France, and the UK.
• Jonathan believes this statement alone should disqualify Trump from being considered for the presidency by anyone who cares about foreign policy.

Return to top⤴️

Jonathan's Call for Explanation from Trump Supporters

🎦 25:08-25:53⏩

• Jonathan directly addresses Trump supporters, urging them to explain how they can reconcile his damaging remarks about US allies with their continued support for him.
• He challenges them to provide a justification that would make him reconsider his negative view of Trump's candidacy.

Return to top⤴️

Jonathan's Closing Remarks on the Upcoming US Election

🎦 25:57-26:05⏩

• Jonathan acknowledges that his focus on Trump is due to the proximity of the US election and the candidate's frequent pronouncements on Ukraine and Russia.

Return to top⤴️

Wrap Up

🎦 26:05-26:05⏩

• Jonathan concludes the video.

Return to top⤴️