Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If you want to know the difference between Russia and Ukraine, have a look at this. And that's it."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:16⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to another ATP Geopolitics video - a Ukraine War News Update. This is the first part for 21st June 2024
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukraine General Staff Report Russian losses for 20th June 2024
🎦 00:16-02:37⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff report for Russian losses for the 20th June 2024:
- 1060 personnel
- 14 tanks
- 35 armoured personnel vehicles
- 54 artillery systems
- 1 multiple launch rocket system (MLRS)
- 2 anti-aircraft warfare systems
- 47 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 10 pieces of special equipment
Jonathan notes the impressive statistics in a number of these categories.
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Andrew Perpetua's Russian equipment losses for 20th June 2024
🎦 02:37-07:44⏩
Jonathan reviews Andrew Perpetua's statistics:
- 52 Russian losses against 28 Ukrainian losses (just under 2:1 ratio). Andrew notes that a couple of the Russian losses were decoys which would make it closer to 2:1.
- 10 Ukrainian combat losses - 1 destroyed, 9 damaged (a good ratio)
- 29 Russian combat losses (3:1 ratio in favour of Russia i.e. 3 Russian combat losses for every 1 Ukrainian)
- 18 Russian assets abandoned or destroyed against 11 Ukrainian assets damaged - a better ratio for Ukraine
Jonathan reviews some of the equipment losses in detail noting that the increasing losses inflicted by Lancet loitering munitions are a significant threat. He hypothesises about the types/variants of equipment being lost and speculates that the Russians are refurbishing anything they can and are likely running low on stockpiles of key equipment.
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Russian Ka-29 Helicopter lost in the Black Sea
🎦 07:44-11:05⏩
Jonathan discusses the reported loss of a Russian Ka-29 helicopter in the Black Sea, thought to have been shot down by Ukrainian forces. It was reportedly being used to counter Ukrainian unmanned surface vessel (USV) attacks. This highlights the difficulty in replacing experienced pilots. There are a number of theories about the downing of the helicopter. The Russian version of events is that it was a "friendly fire" incident but this is considered unlikely. Jonathan considers a number of possibilities:
- Ukrainians are using new tactics involving simultaneous USV and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attacks. This would overload Russian air defences and make it difficult for them to distinguish between friendly and enemy aircraft.
- Ukrainians could be using surface to air missiles such as the R-73 from their Magura V5 USVs.
Jonathan notes that the loss of four experienced pilots is significant and will be difficult to replace.
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Russian FAB-3000 bomb dropped on Ukrainian positions
🎦 11:08-12:43⏩
Jonathan discusses footage circulating on social media showing the aftermath of a large explosion thought to have been caused by a Russian FAB-3000 bomb. The target is unknown, but there has been speculation that it was dropped on Ukrainian positions in the city of Lysychansk. Jonathan questions the effectiveness of such a large bomb. He argues that while one large bomb might seem impressive, it's more effective to use a larger number of smaller bombs as this enables the attacking aircraft to cause more damage. Jonathan uses the example that it's likely that an aircraft could carry three FAB-1500s compared to just one FAB-3000. However, he acknowledges that the size of bomb used depends on the specific objective and target being attacked. Jonathan goes on to describe how the Russians employ a strategy of flattening cities and towns in order to terrorise the population into leaving so that when Russian troops do take control they encounter less resistance and can claim a relatively easy "victory". This is then used for propaganda purposes claiming to have "liberated" the town. Jonathan highlights the moral bankruptcy of claiming to "liberate" a town or city that has been razed to the ground.
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Six Russian Armoured Fighting Vehicles destroyed in attack near Kalynivka
🎦 12:46-14:07⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that Ukrainian forces destroyed six Russian armoured fighting vehicles (AFVs) that were attacking Ukrainian positions near Kalynivka. Two of the six were tanks, the others were two BMPs, an unidentified piece of equipment and an MTLB. Jonathan notes that the MTLB was being used in a kamikaze role. This tactic has been used previously - MTLBs are packed with explosives and detonated remotely. He speculates about how realistic some of the reported equipment losses are, given that six vehicles were destroyed in one small area on a frontline that is over 1000km long.
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Ukraine enjoys a 6:1 drone advantage over Russia
🎦 14:07-18:00⏩
Jonathan highlights a significant statistic, reported by the Russians, that Ukraine now enjoys at least a 6:1 drone advantage over Russia. This means that for every drone Russia has operational in Ukraine, Ukraine has six. He reads an extract from the Russian report which attributes this advantage to the Ukrainian government's success in mobilising and funding small NGOs and private companies. In contrast, the report laments that many promising drone projects in Russia have stalled due to bureaucracy and lack of funding. Jonathan has been saying for some time now that Ukraine's drone capabilities will be key to their success and takes a moment to acknowledge this, jokingly referring to suffering from "imposter syndrome". He goes on to say that he is confident that the picture he is building up, based on the data he analyses from sources such as Andrew Perpetua, is a fairly accurate one. Jonathan notes that while Russia is now aware of the scale of the challenge they face, they are struggling to respond. He notes the importance of Ukraine maintaining this advantage. He says that Ukraine must focus on a strategy of using precision munitions to overcome the numerical advantage Russia enjoys in terms of personnel.
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Oryx Analysis of FPV drone attacks on Russian Tanks
🎦 18:00-22:22⏩
Jonathan discusses a new analysis of the effectiveness of FPV drone attacks on Russian tanks by military analysts Oryx, produced in conjunction with a number of contributors including "Clockwork Chris" who designed the graphics for this analysis as well as the merchandise for Jonathan's channel. The analysis shows that the number of damaged, abandoned and destroyed Russian tanks has been rising consistently. Jonathan notes that these figures only go up to March 2024 and that there's a lag in the data. He says that he will be discussing the analysis with Daniele (from Oryx) soon. He highlights some of the key findings:
- 38.7% of FPV drone attacks target the rear hull of Russian tanks
- 33% target the turret rear
- the join between the turret and the hull of the tank is a particular weak spot that, when hit, can cause catastrophic explosions as this is where ammunition is typically stored.
- the financial cost to Russia of these attacks is significant, totalling an estimated $1.52bn for the period September 2023-March 2024. In March 2024 alone, the estimated losses amounted to $308.9m.
- March 2024 was a particularly costly month for the Russians.
Jonathan notes that this will place a huge strain on the Russian economy, which is already struggling under the weight of sanctions.
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Ukrainian forces using Javelin anti-tank missile system from Quad bike
🎦 22:22-24:13⏩
Jonathan discusses footage showing Ukrainian troops using a Javelin anti-tank missile system mounted on the back of a quadbike. He notes that while some analysts view such "Franken-vehicles" as a sign of desperation, this is a good example of how they can be used effectively. The benefits of using a quad bike in this way include:
- speed and manoeuvrability
- the small size reduces visibility and makes it easier to conceal
- fewer personnel are required to operate it (in this case just one)
Russian forces claim to have destroyed a HIMARS in Kharkiv Oblast
🎦 24:13-25:26⏩
Jonathan discusses a claim made by the Russians that they have destroyed a HIMARS in Kharkiv Oblast. The footage, which was shared by pro-Russian sources, shows a HIMARS firing rockets before moving to a new, concealed position. A missile strike is then called in on the new location. It is not clear from the footage if the HIMARS is destroyed. A number of pro-Ukrainian sources have disputed the claim, saying that the footage is fake, and that the vehicle hit is a support vehicle not a HIMARS. Jonathan concludes that this demonstrates an improvement in Russian capabilities - in 2022 it's unlikely they would have had the capacity to carry out such an attack. However, he notes that there is some doubt as to the veracity of the footage.
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Helicopter crash and Civil Aviation issues in Russia
🎦 25:26-27:30⏩
Jonathan reports on a helicopter crash in Russia - a Robinson R66. He notes that this is just the latest in a string of helicopter and civilian aircraft crashes in recent weeks and months. He questions the reasons behind this, speculating that it could be due to difficulties obtaining parts due to sanctions. He also suggests that sabotage could be a possibility. Jonathan believes that this is significant, highlighting the impact that sanctions are having within Russia.
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Fire at Yacht Club in Moscow
🎦 27:30-28:53⏩
Jonathan discusses footage circulating on social media of a fire at the Mityushina Yacht Club in Moscow. The footage shows a number of boats on fire. Jonathan speculates that this is likely a result of arson, possibly by Ukrainians, and that the Russians are likely to be concerned by the apparent ease with which this has been carried out.
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Overnight drone and missile attacks
🎦 28:53-33:43⏩
Jonathan discusses a number of overnight drone and missile attacks. He reports that Russia attacked Ukraine with 4 KH-59/69 cruise missiles, all of which were destroyed. Ukraine launched a number of drone and USV attacks on targets in Russia:
- 100+ drones attacked oil and gas infrastructure in Crimea
- Drone attacks were also reported in Krasnodar, Adygea and Volgograd
- 6 USVs attacked targets in the Black Sea
- There are reports of significant damage to a number of targets, including:
- Yeysk airfield
- An oil depot in Volgograd
- The Ilyinsky Refinery
- 726th Air Defence Forces training centre
- Four oil refineries in Afip, Ilya, Krasnador and Astrakhan
- A radar station
- Electronic intelligence centres in Bryansk and occupied Crimea
- Storage and preparation sites for Shahed drones in Krasnodar
- Jonathan notes that the Russians claim to have shot down most of the drones, but that there is plenty of evidence to suggest otherwise. Jonathan concludes that this could have been a very successful night of operations for Ukraine.
Ukrainian Soldier shoots down Cruise Missile
🎦 33:43-34:18⏩
Jonathan discusses a claim made by a Ukrainian soldier that he shot down a Russian cruise missile using a machine gun. He expresses some scepticism, but notes that there have been a number of similar claims in recent months.
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Single Ukrainian Naval Drone destroys four Russian patrol boats
🎦 34:18-35:11⏩
Jonathan discusses a report that a single Ukrainian kamikaze naval drone destroyed or damaged four Russian patrol boats in an operation that took place last month. This was reported by Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR). Details are scant, but it is thought that the patrol boats were moored at a pier, enabling the drone to cause significant damage. Jonathan notes that this demonstrates how effective Ukrainian naval drones can be, despite Russian efforts to counter them.
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Russian Missile and Drone attacks cause significant damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure
🎦 35:11-36:51⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia launched a wave of missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the early hours of Thursday morning. This resulted in:
- Significant damage to a thermal power plant
- Damage to energy infrastructure in four regions
- Seven workers injured
- Electricity cut off to 218,000 consumers
Jonathan notes that Ukraine's energy infrastructure is a weak spot and that Russia will be hoping to exploit this in order to undermine Ukrainian morale and reduce their ability to manufacture weapons and support their economy. Jonathan discusses the challenges Ukraine faces in defending its energy infrastructure and the importance of air defences in countering this threat. He notes that the US has prioritised providing interceptors for existing Ukrainian air defence systems such as Patriot. He speculates that a shortage of interceptors, rather than air defence systems themselves, could be an issue for Ukraine given that they need to counter wave after wave of Russian attacks.
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Fire at Oil Depot in Azov
🎦 36:51-38:45⏩
Jonathan discusses a fire at an oil depot in the Russian city of Azov, which has been burning for three days. He notes that the fire was extinguished but has since reignited and is causing significant problems for the Russians. The cause of the fire is unknown, but it is thought to have been caused by a Ukrainian drone or missile strike.
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US Clarifies rules on use of US Weapons by Ukrainian forces
🎦 38:45-43:43⏩
Jonathan discusses reports that the US has clarified the rules regarding the use of US weapons by Ukrainian forces. The US has now said that Ukraine can use US-supplied weapons to attack any Russian forces that are attacking, or about to attack, from across the border. Previously, the US had said that Ukraine could only use US weapons to attack Russian forces in the Kharkiv region. Jonathan welcomes this clarification, but notes that there are still some grey areas that need further explanation, particularly with regards to:
- Whether the new rules apply to Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia. For example, if Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian positions in Donetsk from Rostov, can Ukrainian forces attack targets inside Russia?
- Whether the Russian forces have to be actively attacking to be considered legitimate targets i.e. does it include troops/equipment that are in occupied territories but not currently engaged in fighting?
Jonathan points out that it could be argued that there is no material difference between striking 50km into Belgorod from Kharkiv and striking 50km into Rostov from Donetsk, if this involves firing over territory occupied by Russia. Jonathan concludes that while this is a positive step, the US needs to provide greater clarity regarding the rules of engagement.
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Putin Considering changes to Russia's Nuclear Doctrine
🎦 43:43-44:37⏩
Jonathan reports that Russia is considering changes to its nuclear doctrine which would lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. Jonathan speculates about whether this is simply sabre-rattling or a sign that Putin is becoming increasingly desperate.
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Russian Central Bank targeted by cyberattacks
🎦 44:37-45:27⏩
Jonathan reports that the Russian central bank has suffered a number of cyber attacks which have caused its payment system to collapse. He notes that this is another challenge for Russia. He highlights the success of Ukrainian attacks against Russia's Black Sea fleet, noting that as the number of warships Russia has operational in the Black Sea has reduced, so has the threat to commercial shipping. Jonathan concludes that as Ukraine degrades Russia's military capabilities, the safer the world will be.
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Contrasting treatment of Prisoners of War
🎦 45:27-45:50⏩
Jonathan discusses the contrasting treatment of prisoners of war (POWs) by Russia and Ukraine. He highlights a video circulating on social media that shows a Russian POW speaking to his wife. The wife remarks that her husband has gained weight while in captivity. Jonathan contrasts this with the treatment of Ukrainian POWs, many of whom have lost significant amounts of weight, are denied contact with their families and are routinely tortured. Jonathan highlights this as a clear example of the difference between Russia and Ukraine: Russia is committing war crimes while Ukraine is behaving appropriately.
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Swedish Satellite networks targeted by Russia
🎦 45:50-46:46⏩
Jonathan reports that Sweden has accused Russia of targeting three of its satellite networks. This follows a recent incident in which a Russian Su-24 fighter jet violated Swedish airspace. Jonathan argues that this is further evidence that Russia is waging a hybrid war against the West. He points out that Russia has also been accused of carrying out similar attacks on other countries, including the UK, and is critical of the West's reluctance to acknowledge this and take a tougher stance.
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Wrap up
🎦 46:46-46:56⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share. He apologises for the length of the video, saying that there was a lot to get through.
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