Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"When you look at some of these Russian propagandists, so Russia wants a bigger, better civil war in the United States more than just village idiot storm in the capital. In other words, January the 6th. Yeah, we want way more than that."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:17⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update focusing on the geopolitical fallout of the Ukraine War, this being the second part of the news update for August 27, 2024.
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Bill Kristol on Biden's Response to Russian Attacks & Jonathan's Musings on Delegation
🎦 00:17-05:01⏩
Jonathan discusses Bill Kristol's (a US conservative) comments that in light of recent Russian attacks on civilian targets, President Biden should:
- Allow Ukraine to target Russia militarily.
- Request more arms for Ukraine.
- Visit Kyiv again to demonstrate US support.
Jonathan finds Kristol to be a voice of reason and agrees that Biden's administration needs to adopt a stronger stance against Russian aggression, possibly hindered by dovish advisors like Jake Sullivan. He ponders the balance between a leader's own views and the influence of their advisors, acknowledging the necessity of delegation due to the sheer volume of information involved in governing. He compares this with Putin's isolation and inability to verify information, which puts him in a weaker position compared to Western leaders who at least have access to a wider range of opinions.
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Ukraine's Kursk Offensive as a Bargaining Chip
🎦 06:25-07:37⏩
Jonathan explains that Zelensky sees the Kursk operation as more than a military objective. He states that it serves a dual purpose:
- Military Gains: Capturing territory and disrupting Russian logistics.
- Political Leverage: Using territorial gains as bargaining chips in potential peace negotiations with Russia, potentially for territory exchange or establishing buffer zones.
Russia Plans Drone Sabotage of NATO Airbase in Germany
🎦 07:37-10:22⏩
Jonathan reports that German intelligence has uncovered a Russian plot to sabotage NATO's Geilenkirchen airbase using drones, potentially targeting the 14 Boeing E3A AWACS surveillance aircraft stationed there. These aircraft are essential for intelligence gathering and monitoring the war. He discusses the challenges faced by NATO in responding to such acts of aggression. While Russia's actions are escalatory, directly invoking Article 5 and declaring war is a drastic step no NATO country wants. This gives Russia a degree of leeway to act with less fear of serious consequences.
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BRICS Nations Propose Alternative Peace Plan for Ukraine
🎦 10:22-11:57⏩
Jonathan reports that China, Brazil, Indonesia, and South Africa (BRICS) are pushing for global support for their own peace plan for Ukraine, claiming over 110 nations back it. The plan advocates for a ceasefire, protecting civilians, avoiding WMDs, and international cooperation. However, Jonathan is sceptical, suggesting this plan is likely more beneficial to Russia and part of a broader strategy by BRICS to position themselves as a counterweight to Western influence.
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India's Balancing Act: Reduced Steel Supplies to Russia and Growing Economic Leverage
🎦 11:57-15:21⏩
Jonathan examines India's complex relationship with Russia in light of the war. He notes that India has reduced its stainless steel supplies to Russia by a factor of three, potentially due to:
- US Pressure: India might be responding to pressure from the US to reduce its economic ties with Russia.
- Negotiating Tactics: India, like China, could be using Russia's reliance on them for trade to secure favourable deals, exploiting Russia's weakened economic position due to sanctions.
This reduction in steel highlights India's increasing leverage over Russia, demonstrating the economic consequences of Russia's international isolation.
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Ukraine Refuses to Renew Gas Transit Agreement with Russia
🎦 15:21-16:39⏩
Jonathan reports that Ukraine is standing firm in its refusal to extend the gas transit agreement with Russia, a pipeline that passes through Ukraine and supplies gas to Hungary and Slovakia. Despite appeals from both countries and criticism of Ukraine's stance, Zelensky remains resolute, likely in retaliation for their perceived support of Russia and obstruction of aid to Ukraine.
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Telegram CEO Pavel Durov Charged by French Authorities
🎦 16:39-20:33⏩
Jonathan discusses the charges brought against Pavel Durov, CEO of Telegram, by French authorities. The charges include complicity in various crimes by allowing them to occur on Telegram's platform, failing to take action, and refusing to cooperate with law enforcement requests for information. Jonathan argues that this is a case of complicity, drawing parallels to the philosophical dilemma of a bystander's obligation to help someone in danger (the drowning person analogy). By allowing criminal activity to continue unchecked and obstructing investigations, Durov is complicit in the harm caused.
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Backlash and Hypocrisy over Telegram Case and "Free Speech Absolutism"
🎦 20:33-25:53⏩
Jonathan covers the backlash surrounding the Durov case, particularly from prominent figures like Elon Musk and right-wing groups who champion "free speech". He highlights the hypocrisy in these arguments:
- Double Standards: Many defending Telegram as a bastion of free speech are notably silent about Russia's suppression of dissent and free press.
- Selective Outrage: Cat Turd, a vocal Musk supporter, condemns Europe as "fascist" for the Durov arrest but remains silent on Musk's own censorship of pro-Harris content on Twitter (now X) and previous restrictions on pro-Ukrainian voices.
- Misguided "Free Speech Absolutism": Jonathan criticizes the view that freedom of speech trumps all other rights, arguing that it's not absolute. There are limits when it infringes on other laws or rights, and context matters. The Telegram case highlights this conflict, as Durov is accused of enabling illegal activity under the guise of free speech.
Anonymous Alleges Russian Oligarch Funding of Musk's Twitter Takeover
🎦 27:24-32:06⏩
Jonathan cites a report by Anonymous, claiming that Musk's acquisition of Twitter was partly funded by Russian oligarchs connected to Putin, who sought to influence US politics and sabotage Ukraine. He outlines the alleged connections:
- 8VC, a venture capital firm founded by a Trump supporter (Joe Lonsdale), helped fund Musk's Twitter takeover.
- 8VC employs the children of sanctioned Russian oligarchs with ties to Putin.
- Joe Lonsdale has a history of supporting pro-Kremlin candidates and is close to both Musk and Peter Thiel, another tech billionaire who has backed Trump.
- This raises concerns about potential Russian influence over Musk and his changing stance on the Ukraine War, including his platform's suppression of pro-Ukrainian voices and amplification of pro-Russian narratives.
Trump Endorsed by Pro-Russian Figures & Growing Republican Support for Ukraine
🎦 32:06-41:36⏩
Jonathan notes the irony of Trump, who has expressed pro-Russian sentiments, being endorsed by figures like Tulsi Gabbard (accused of being a "Russian asset") and potentially influenced by Russian oligarchs through the Twitter deal. He contrasts this with growing support for Ukraine among the Republican base.
- He references polls showing increasing numbers of Republicans favouring continued US aid to Ukraine. While Trump and his allies push an anti-Ukraine agenda, it doesn't reflect the views of many Republican voters.
- This suggests a widening gap between the Republican leadership's stance and the views of ordinary Republican voters.
Russia Aims for Increased Civil Unrest in the US
🎦 41:36-43:21⏩
Jonathan points out that Russia's aims go beyond isolated incidents like the January 6th Capitol riot. He highlights comments from Russian propagandists who hope for a full-blown civil war in the US, aiming to sow further division and weaken the country from within. He expresses concern that the extreme rhetoric from some MAGA groups, particularly their refusal to accept election results that don't favour them, plays into Russia's hands and increases the risk of further unrest.
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Wrap Up
🎦 43:21-43:27⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, urging viewers to be cautious and aware of the forces at play seeking to exploit divisions within the US. He signs off with a cheerful "Toodlepits".
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