Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:32⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers from his holiday and explains that the heat and fatigue is the reason he's making more videos than he should be. He jokes that his 'Rock and Roll' days are over as he's going to bed at 9.30pm!
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Upcoming US Military Aid Packages
🎦 01:32-06:06⏩
Jonathan discusses the recent announcement by John Kirby that the White House will be announcing new military aid packages for Ukraine in the coming days. He speculates on what these packages might contain, suggesting that it's time for the US to send more significant military hardware like Bradley Fighting Vehicles.
- He highlights the significant losses of equipment being experienced by the Ukrainians, particularly in the recent Kursk offensive.
- He observes that, unlike manpower, equipment losses are replaceable and the US is in a good position to replenish Ukrainian stocks.
- He argues that the US is essentially using these aid packages as a way of upgrading their own inventory. He suggests that, rather than ‘Ukraine Aid Package’ a more accurate term would be ‘US Armed Forces Upgrade Package.’
Jonathan then moves on to discuss a recent Politico report suggesting that the Biden administration are considering supplying Ukraine with JASM (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile) cruise missiles:
- He points out that the Department of Defence has just awarded Lockheed Martin a $130 million contract to increase JASM and LRASM (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile) production. He acknowledges that the timing is likely a coincidence but that this will nevertheless be beneficial to Ukraine as it will make the US Air Force more willing to part with existing inventory.
- Jonathan believes it is highly unlikely that Ukraine would be permitted to use these missiles to strike targets within Russia itself, citing the US’s ongoing concerns about escalation.
UK/US Restrictions On Use of Western Supplied Weapons
🎦 06:06-13:37⏩
Jonathan addresses recent speculation in the UK media that the UK government has been blocking Ukrainian attempts to use Storm Shadow missiles against targets within Russia:
- He refutes the suggestion that the Labour Party would be more willing to allow such strikes. He cites the example of the Shadow Defence Secretary, Keir Starmer, who recently gave the Ukrainians the impression that this would be the case, only to be publicly contradicted by the Ministry of Defence soon afterwards. Jonathan argues that this is a clear indication that the restrictions are a result of an agreement between the US and UK governments rather than an independent policy decision by the UK.
- Jonathan then highlights a CBC report claiming that Canada has approved the use of Roshel Senator armoured vehicles supplied by Canada within Russia. He points out that this is hardly new information as they have been widely used, and lost, by the Ukrainians in the recent fighting around Kursk.
Jonathan then moves on to look at the latest military aid package announced by the German government:
- He analyses a list of equipment that Germany has pledged to deliver by the end of 2024. He is particularly impressed by the quantity of armoured vehicles being supplied, describing this as ‘really good news’ and a sign that the Germans are ‘stepping up big time.’
- Jonathan is surprised by the news that 2 RST SLM SAM systems are included in this package. He believes that fulfilling this order within such a short timeframe will be a significant challenge for the German arms industry.
- He points out that the 12 Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers included in the package will likely have to be backfilled by the Bundeswehr using existing stock, similar to the way the US uses Presidential Drawdown Authority to expedite the delivery of equipment to Ukraine.
French Military Aid and Industrial Capacity
🎦 13:37-29:12⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to French contributions, highlighting their supply of VAB (Véhicule de l'Avant Blindé) armoured personnel carriers:
- He notes the substantial number delivered – 284 between February 2022 and May 2024.
- He projects an even greater number, at least 412, to be delivered by the end of 2024 or early 2025.
- Jonathan attributes this expedited delivery to the French government's decision to provide Ukraine with phased-out vehicles, including the VABs.
The conversation turns towards French efforts to increase artillery ammunition production, drawing on information from various sources including:
- Thierry Franckou, CEO of EURENCO, a European arms manufacturer.
- Sébastien Lecornu, the French Defence Minister.
Key developments in France include:
- Construction of a new EURENCO factory in Bergerac, anticipated to be operational within two years, with an annual production capacity equivalent to 150,000 155mm artillery shells.
- By 2026, France aims to produce 1.2 million modular charges (equivalent to over 200,000 complete CAESAR 155mm howitzer rounds) annually.
- Concurrently, the state-owned Nexter Systems plans to manufacture 180,000 standard 155mm shells by 2026.
Beyond France, EURENCO plans international expansion:
- A new site in the US for producing 1,500 modular charge boxes per year.
- Two additional sites in undisclosed European countries, with a combined annual output of 1,200 tons of powder and modular charges.
Jonathan emphasizes the significance of this information, illustrating the intricate and time-consuming process of establishing such production capabilities. He praises the French government and private industry for their swift response in scaling up production to support Ukraine. Jonathan compares and contrasts the efficiency of public and private sectors in ramping up ammunition production:
- In the US, where production is largely controlled by the public sector, the response has been quicker due to a focus on strategic needs rather than long-term profitability.
- Private companies, however, need assurances of continued demand to justify investment in expanded capacity.
Jonathan observes that the current surge in global ammunition production indicates a level of confidence in sustained demand for at least the next decade.
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Ukrainian Innovation in Robotics and Drones
🎦 29:12-31:42⏩
Jonathan discusses two examples of innovation by the Ukrainian defence industry:
- Ukraine's Defence Ministry has certified its first firefighting robot for use in mine clearing operations
- The launch of a new testing ground, dubbed ‘Iron Range,’ to allow Ukrainian arms manufacturers to test and refine new weapons systems.
Jonathan believes that Ukraine is well-positioned to become a world leader in the development of drone technology. He argues that, despite the tragedy of the current situation, Ukraine must strive to find opportunities within the conflict and establish a foundation for future prosperity.
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Russian Recruitment of Convicts
🎦 31:42-32:48⏩
Jonathan cites an Economist article highlighting the increasing reliance of the Russian military on convicts. He notes the effectiveness of these troops, quoting one Russian officer who describes them as “the best warriors he has seen.”
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Wrap up
🎦 32:48-33:14⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers for their support, giving a special mention to Mark Biskew and Olena.
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"Ukraine correctly didn't wait for permission from Ottawa to use Roshel Defence Senators since they've already been extensively used in the Kursk operation."
