Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News 0 Huge Ukr Attack, Oil Spill
Table of Contents 📖
"If he [Pavel Gubarev] is saying 700,000 people have been lost and he's calling for an end to the war, the Russians have lost incredible numbers of people and equipment."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:10⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a new video on Ukraine war news, kicking off the first part of the update for 11th January 2025.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: Heavy Russian Losses
🎦 00:10-01:06⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff reports significant Russian losses, noting that while the numbers are positive for Ukraine, they represent human lives. The reported figures include a substantial loss of personnel, highlighting the ongoing human cost of the conflict.
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Andrew Perpetua's Workload and Call for Assistance
🎦 01:06-02:17⏩
Jonathan discusses Andrew Perpetua's inability to produce his regular loss list due to the overwhelming volume of footage, exceeding 260 videos daily. Jonathan encourages viewers to consider assisting Andrew with this crucial work.
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Pavel Gubarev Admits Significant Russian Losses
🎦 02:17-05:09⏩
Jonathan highlights comments made by Pavel Gubarev, the former People's Governor of Donbas, who admits to enormous Russian losses, urging an immediate end to the war. Gubarev's estimation of Russian losses aligns with recent US intelligence assessments. Jonathan emphasises the significance of Gubarev's statement, especially given his previous pro-Russian stance, questioning how pro-Russian voices can refute such admissions.
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Italian National Captured Fighting for Russia in Kharkiv Oblast
🎦 05:09-05:41⏩
Ukrainian special forces capture an Italian national fighting for Russian forces near Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast. The individual, a former pizza chef, had voluntarily enlisted, leaving his family in Italy. Ukrainian forces suggest he was influenced by Russian propaganda.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Targets: Svitlodarsk and Donetsk
🎦 05:41-06:22⏩
Jonathan covers recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets, including a precise attack on a command post in Svitlodarsk and a series of strikes on Russian-occupied facilities in the Donetsk region. He indicates he'll provide further analysis on the impact of these distance strikes later in the video.
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Russian Equipment Losses: Visual Evidence and Analysis
🎦 06:22-07:56⏩
Footage reveals substantial Russian equipment losses, with a road near Prokrosk littered with destroyed vehicles. Jonathan emphasizes the scale of destruction, highlighting the effectiveness of Ukrainian tactics. He references the use of fiber optic drones and notes the importance of geolocation in verifying these losses, ultimately supporting the accuracy of Ukrainian General Staff figures.
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Russian Fiber Optic Drone Advantage and Ukrainian Countermeasures
🎦 07:56-09:40⏩
Analyst Rob Lee highlights the increased use of fiber optic drones by Russian forces, particularly in the Velika Novosilka axis. Jonathan notes the expanding range of these drones, now reaching 15-20 kilometers. While Russia currently holds the advantage in fiber optic drone technology, Ukrainian manufacturers are actively developing both fiber optic drones and counter drone measures.
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Ukrainian 47th Brigade's Drone Interception Success, Including Shahed Drone
🎦 09:40-10:28⏩
Jonathan analyses footage from the 47th Brigade Magura, demonstrating the successful interception of drones, including what appears to be a Shahed drone. He highlights the significance of this interception, as Shahed drones, being larger and typically operating at night, pose a more challenging target.
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Russian Drone Innovation: FPV Drone with Anti-Drone Cage
🎦 10:28-11:04⏩
Jonathan presents footage of a Russian FPV (First-Person View) drone equipped with an anti-drone cage, likely intended to deflect attacks from interceptor drones and protect its propellers. He acknowledges the Russian effort to innovate and adapt their drone technology.
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Russian Use of TM-62 Mines Deployed by Fixed-Wing Drones
🎦 11:04-12:45⏩
Jonathan expresses concern over Russian adoption of Ukrainian tactics, specifically the deployment of TM-62 anti-tank mines using fixed-wing drones, Molniya-2 and Privet-82. He notes that while Ukraine initially held an advantage in this area with their Baba Yagas and Vampire drones, Russia has caught up, posing a potential threat to Ukrainian forces.
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Large-Scale Ukrainian Drone Attack on Russia and Occupied Territories
🎦 12:45-16:19⏩
Jonathan analyses a wave of Russian Shahid drone attacks, with Ukraine successfully neutralising all 74. He shifts focus to what he believes to be significant Ukrainian drone strikes inside Russia and occupied territories, suggesting this signifies a strategic shift in momentum. Jonathan emphasises the difficulty in assessing the full extent of these attacks due to factors like operational security and lack of footage. Despite limited information, reports suggest a large-scale, coordinated Ukrainian drone offensive, potentially exceeding previous attacks in scope.
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Ongoing Fire at Engels Oil Depot and Potential Impact
🎦 16:19-18:10⏩
Jonathan discusses the ongoing fire at the Engels oil depot, four days after Ukrainian drone strikes. While the fire hampers some airfield operations, conflicting reports exist regarding the severity of disruption. He notes that underground fuel tanks might mitigate the impact on aircraft.
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Widespread Drone Attacks on Russian Regions and Crimea
🎦 18:10-21:31⏩
Jonathan provides an overview of reported drone attacks on various Russian regions, including confirmed strikes in Tambov and suspected attacks in Kazan and Crimea. He notes the closure of several airports, including Kazan, though the extent of damage remains unclear. In Crimea, a large fire near Bilohirsk and explosions in Feodosia suggest successful strikes on Russian targets, though details are scarce. Jonathan also addresses claims of Crimean Bridge attacks, emphasizing their frequency and the typical Russian response of closure without confirmation of actual damage.
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Ukrainian Strikes on Novorossiysk Port and Russian Air Defence Concerns
🎦 21:31-22:29⏩
Jonathan highlights Ukrainian strikes on Novorossiysk, a critical Russian naval port. Local sources confirm attacks on oil-loading infrastructure, raising concerns about potential economic impacts and exposing vulnerabilities in Russia's air defence system. Russian commentators blame the lack of adequate air defences on the prioritisation of protecting Moscow and Putin's residence over strategic locations like Novorossiysk.
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Ukrainian "Peklo" Missile Strikes and Rostov Warehouse
🎦 22:29-24:57⏩
Jonathan discusses the aftermath of Ukrainian strikes on Russian targets, including the use of "Peklo" missiles, confirmed by Ukrainian sources. One notable strike targeted a warehouse in Rostov-on-Don, initially claimed by Russia to be a civilian facility. However, evidence suggests the warehouse stored military equipment, including reconnaissance drones and ammunition. The presence of secondary explosions further supports this claim. Jonathan highlights the Ukrainian tactic of overwhelming Russian air defences with cheaper drones before deploying more potent missiles like the Neptune, maximising their impact.
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North Korean Involvement in Kursk and Evidence of Presence
🎦 24:57-26:21⏩
Jonathan addresses claims regarding North Korean soldiers captured in Kursk, refuting scepticism about their presence. He cites multiple sources of evidence: captured notebooks, video footage, fake passports with consistent signatures, and accounts from Russian soldiers in hospitals. Jonathan asserts the evidence overwhelmingly supports North Korean involvement in the conflict.
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Negotiation Stalemate and Differing US Administration Stances
🎦 26:21-27:41⏩
Jonathan discusses the unlikelihood of immediate peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, citing statements from US National Security Advisor John Kirby. He anticipates a clash between the outgoing and incoming US administrations, with the latter likely to push for a swift resolution despite current realities on the ground.
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US Intelligence and Potential Nuclear Threat During Kherson Counteroffensive
🎦 27:41-30:30⏩
Jonathan revisits the Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson in 2022, specifically questioning the decision not to destroy retreating Russian forces and equipment during the Kherson operation. He highlights a claim that US intelligence assessed a 50% probability of a Russian nuclear response if Ukraine eliminated those Russian forces. This revelation sheds light on a potentially critical decision point in the war, with the US seemingly prioritising the prevention of nuclear escalation over a significant Ukrainian victory.
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Deteriorating Situation in Kursk and Potential for Russian Recapture
🎦 30:30-31:41⏩
Jonathan reports on the deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces in Kursk, based on geolocated footage. He analyses the evolving situation, noting an initial Ukrainian attack followed by a strong Russian counter-offensive. Jonathan posits two possibilities: a strategic Ukrainian ploy to draw out and attrite Russian forces, or a determined Russian effort to recapture Kursk by January 20th.
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Russian Military Indoctrination of Children
🎦 31:41-33:14⏩
Jonathan expresses sadness over a video depicting the military indoctrination of young children in Russia. The video shows children being trained for combat and instilled with anti-Ukrainian sentiment. Jonathan condemns the practice of brainwashing children, recognising the long-term implications for future generations.
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Oil Spill in Krasnodar Krai and Ongoing Challenges with Russian Tankers
🎦 33:14-36:07⏩
Jonathan reports on a new oil spill off the coast of Russia's Krasnodar Krai, originating from the Volgneft 239 tanker. This incident follows previous sinkings of Russian vessels, raising concerns about the environmental impact and the poor maintenance of the Russian shadow fleet. He links this to a broader issue of poorly maintained Russian tankers operating in the Baltic Sea, highlighting German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock's accusations against Putin for utilising these vessels to evade sanctions and endanger the Baltic region. Jonathan expresses concern over the potential consequences of these actions.
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Wrap Up
🎦 36:07-36:10⏩
Jonathan concludes the video, bidding farewell to his viewers.
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