Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"I'm not drunk, I've just got MS."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:20⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers, mentioning his struggles with MS, particularly after a night out involving beer and curry. He shares an anecdote about a woman's concern for him and mentions his excitement for an upcoming Cult concert. He acknowledges that he's not feeling his best and apologises if his content delivery is affected.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report: High Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 02:20-03:27⏩
Jonathan reviews the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses, highlighting the substantial figure of 1,460 personnel lost, consistent with previous days' reports. He notes that this will be a combination of losses from across the frontline. He also mentions that he has completed his mapping update, which will be uploaded soon. Other notable losses include 6 tanks, 20 armoured personnel vehicles, 26 artillery systems, 77 vehicles and fuel tanks, and 9 pieces of special equipment. Jonathan points out that losses in several categories remain consistently high and problematic for the Russians.
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Andrew Perpetua's Russian and Ukrainian Equipment Loss Analysis
🎦 03:27-11:43⏩
Jonathan analyses two of Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed equipment loss lists, one from two days prior and one from the previous day.
- Russian Losses (Two Days Prior): Jonathan observes that while the Russian equipment loss list is extensive, it predominantly comprises civilian vehicles like trucks, ATVs, and motorcycles, reflecting a trend of using these vehicles in attacks due to their higher availability compared to armoured personnel carriers. He notes that combat asset losses between the Russians and Ukrainians are roughly equal in this list.
- Ukrainian Losses (Two Days Prior): Jonathan highlights Ukrainian losses, including a sunk boat, artillery pieces, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (both Soviet and Dutch-provided YPR 765s), a damaged Bradley, and several damaged and destroyed M113 APCs. He also points out the capture of a Turkish-provided Kirpi MRAP, the third such instance in a week. He estimates the ratio of damaged to destroyed equipment to be around 50/50. Jonathan expresses concern over the deliberate targeting of civilian vehicles with civilians inside by Russian drone-dropped bombs, calling them war crimes. He cites examples of such incidents in Kherson. He clarifies that the list categorises civilian vehicles used by Ukrainians for military purposes as military losses.
- Russian Losses (Previous Day): This list indicates a positive trend for Ukraine, with a significantly higher number of destroyed and abandoned Russian equipment compared to damaged ones. The losses are considered irretrievable. Jonathan methodically lists the types and numbers of destroyed Russian equipment, including electronic warfare systems, surveillance and comms equipment, a recovery vehicle, howitzers, tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, APCs, trucks, ATVs, and civilian vehicles. He emphasises the extensive nature of the losses and praises the work of Andrew Perpetua and his team in compiling the visually confirmed data.
- Ukrainian Losses (Previous Day): Jonathan notes a significant number of Ukrainian losses in this list, but clarifies that it mainly consists of civilian vehicles and trucks. The combat asset loss ratio favours Ukraine at least 3:1, with the Russians losing three times as many combat vehicles. He goes on to enumerate Ukrainian losses, including a damaged Caesar howitzer, a tank, three infantry fighting vehicles (including a damaged Bradley), several Western-provided APCs, damaged M113s, a Stryker, Humvee, Senator, MRAPs, and a number of civilian vehicles. He highlights the positive trend of fewer destroyed Ukrainian equipment compared to previous reports.
Russian Air Defence Systems & Ukrainian Strikes
🎦 11:43-12:58⏩
Jonathan observes the high number of Russian air defence systems reported destroyed by the Ukrainian General Staff (eight) and anticipates the emergence of footage confirming these losses. He speculates that these losses might be connected to the satellite imagery showing strikes on S-300 or S-400 systems in Crimea, which may not be reflected in Andrew Perpetua's lists due to the lack of visual confirmation. He emphasises that the General Staff would likely have information about such strikes that wouldn't be publicly available.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Strikes
🎦 12:58-17:17⏩
Jonathan discusses overnight drone and missile strikes by both sides, noting a 100% interception rate for 48 Iranian Shahed drones launched by Russia. 31 were intercepted by conventional means, 14 by electronic warfare and 3 returned to Belarus. He highlights the Ukrainians' ongoing struggle with intercepting Kh-59-69 missiles, suggesting that Russia might be using the drones to identify Ukrainian air defence positions. Jonathan condemns Russia's use of cluster munitions in an attack on Odessa and mentions the careful approach taken when sharing information about such attacks to avoid revealing sensitive details. He expresses concern over a reported ballistic missile strike on Kherson, noting its unusual nature and the devastating impact on the remaining population.
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Ukrainian Drone Strikes on Russian Territory
🎦 17:17-21:53⏩
Jonathan details Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian territory.
- He casts doubt on Russian claims of downing 83 Ukrainian drones overnight, suggesting that some may have been deliberately downed on their intended targets.
- He cites reports of drone attacks on an oil plant in Ufa, 1,600 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, highlighting the sounding of air raid sirens, airport closures, and the evacuation of the Bashneft-Ufanetkim plant.
- He provides details about an overnight drone attack on a Russian oil depot in Svetlograd, Stavropol region, resulting in a fire engulfing 1,000 square meters. Drone debris also reportedly hit an apartment building in Bryansk, which Jonathan believes was an unintended consequence of electronic warfare.
- He mentions reports of drone attacks on three enterprises in Bashkortostan, including the Bashneft Ufa-Nekhti-Kim-Ora refinery, with authorities downplaying the damage inflicted.
- Jonathan speculates that there may be more drone strikes within Russia that remain unreported due to the limited availability of footage.
- He notes the recent lull in Ukrainian drone activity and his anticipation of a more significant wave of attacks, suggesting that Russia has been preparing for such an escalation. He uses the example of a Moscow oil refinery, one of Russia's largest, being covered with anti-drone netting following a damaging attack in September. He questions the effectiveness of this netting against larger, aeroplane-sized drones.
International Developments and Military Aid
🎦 21:53-24:17⏩
- North Korean Troop Deployment: Jonathan reports on Antony Blinken's statement that Russia has deployed 8,000 North Korean troops to Kursk, adding to the estimated 10,000 already stationed across Russia. These troops are reportedly undergoing training in infantry operations, artillery, and drone warfare. Jonathan finds this development concerning and indicative of Russia's intent to utilize these forces in frontline combat.
- US Military Aid Package: Jonathan relays Blinken's announcement of an upcoming new security assistance package for Ukraine, highlighting the continued US support for Ukraine's war effort.
- North Korea's Stance: Jonathan contrasts the US's unwavering support for Ukraine with North Korea's declaration of support for Russia's "holy war," emphasising the stark difference in rhetoric and commitment. He questions the West's response to North Korea's stance, wondering if a more robust reaction is necessary.
Russia's Information Warfare and Power Outages
🎦 24:17-25:30⏩
- Surveillance and Censorship: Jonathan reveals that Russian forces are reprogramming Ukrainian mobile and internet equipment in occupied territories to spy on Ukrainian citizens. He explains that the occupiers are blocking access to restricted internet sites and imposing power outages to control the flow of information and limit exposure to news sources outside of Russian control.
- Scheduled Blackouts: Jonathan warns of potential power outage schedules returning as early as the following week due to anticipated increased demand on the power grid with the onset of colder weather. He explains that these scheduled blackouts will be implemented to stabilise the power supply and prevent overloads.
Wrap Up
🎦 25:30-26:39⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by thanking his viewers and expressing hope that the information shared was useful. He shares an anecdote about his "Viva La Evolution" t-shirt featuring Charles Darwin, which he wore the previous night, and humorously connects his overindulgence in "Evolve Beer" to his rough state. He signs off, promising to speak to his audience again soon.
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