Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
| Topic ID | Topic Title | Timestamp |
|---|
"If you torture statistics long enough, eventually they'll confess - on that timeless maxim, Vladimir Putin managed to conjure a minor 2.1% contraction in Russia's economy last year, against double digits that we were expecting. The bizarre thing is that we believed him."
Russian losses and Ukrainian figures
The Ukrainian figures for Russian losses on 12 March show 710 liquidated personnel, which is lower than previous days but still above average for the war. Other losses include 8 tanks, 5 APCs, 16 artillery systems, 1 drone, 6 vehicles and 9 pieces of special equipment. Jonathan notes the high number of artillery systems lost and suggests Russia may be struggling to repair and replace them.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Situation in Bakhmut
The commander of Ukraine's ground forces admits the situation in Bakhmut is difficult, with Russia trying to advance and surround the town, but suffering heavy losses. President Zelenskyy claims over 1,100 Russians were killed and 1,500 wounded in Bakhmut in the past week. Jonathan questions whether holding Bakhmut is the right decision for Ukraine, noting that it depends on the accuracy of loss figures on both sides. Some suggest Ukraine is sacrificing troops for political reasons, while others believe they are effectively attriting Russian forces.
Return to top⤴️
Explosions in Mariupol and Belgorod
At least two loud explosions were heard near Mariupol, with a video showing a projectile flying towards the city. In the Belgorod region of Russia, near Kharkiv, videos reportedly show Russian air defences engaging supposed missiles, with explosions heard.
Return to top⤴️
Shelling of Mykolaiv and Kostiantynivka
Russian forces are shelling the Kutsurub district of Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine, likely from the Kinburn Peninsula. Kostiantynivka, west of Bakhmut, has also been hit, injuring eight people and damaging houses. The city is a staging point for Ukrainian forces in the Bakhmut area and has been consistently targeted by Russia.
Return to top⤴️
Military aid and training
Leopard 2A6 tank training for Ukrainian forces in Germany is nearly complete, with tanks and personnel expected to arrive in Ukraine by the end of March. Jonathan emphasizes the extensive training needed for the various tanks and equipment being provided to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Switzerland will destroy decommissioned Rapier air defence systems instead of transferring them to Ukraine, drawing criticism for their strict neutrality.
Return to top⤴️
Iran's new kamikaze drone
Iran has unveiled its Shahed 191 kamikaze drone with a new mobile launch system. The drone has a range of 1,500 km, can carry two 50 kg bombs, fly for 4.5 hours at 7.5 km altitude, and reach speeds of 350 km/h. Jonathan suggests these drones could end up in Russian hands, posing a problem for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Mikheil Saakashvili's imprisonment and alleged poisoning in Georgia
Former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, who also served in the Ukrainian government, is allegedly close to death after being poisoned in prison. His case has drawn international attention, with the EU and US expressing concern over his treatment. Jonathan provides background on Saakashvili's political career and the implications of his situation for Georgia's future and its relationship with the EU.
Return to top⤴️
French general's opinion on potential collapse of Russia
French General Michel Yakovleff believes NATO must prepare for the potential collapse of the Russian Federation, which he sees as practically guaranteed and likely to be more bloody than the collapse of the USSR. Jonathan suggests this view could be informed by Russia's economic situation.
Return to top⤴️
Russia's economic situation and India agreeing to comply with sanctions
An article in the Financial Times, drawing from the work of Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, argues that Russia's economy is in a much worse state than official figures suggest. Key points include the exodus of educated Russians, the withdrawal of foreign investors, and the loss of natural gas export markets. Additionally, India has agreed to comply with sanctions on Russian oil imports, purchasing below the price cap set by the EU and US. Jonathan believes this arrangement benefits India financially while putting further pressure on Russia's budget and ability to fund the war.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
Jonathan encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share, expressing appreciation for their support. He mentions there is plenty of content to come and invites the audience to "join the ride."
Return to top⤴️
