Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitics News
Table of Contents 📖
"We have 14 brigades that are not equipped. They do not have the appropriate weapons, which have already been voted for and discussed"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to a military aid focused Ukraine War Update video for 4th July 2024.
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Ukraine
🎦 00:14-04:48⏩
Jonathan discusses an interview with President Zelensky in which he was asked how long he thought the stalemate would last. Zelensky disagreed that the situation was a stalemate, describing it as "problematic" but that problems can be solved if the will and the tools are available. Zelensky states that Ukraine has the will but lacks the necessary tools: "We have 14 brigades that are not equipped. They do not have the appropriate weapons, which have already been voted for and discussed". Jonathan infers that Zelensky is referring to the delays in military aid shipments to Ukraine, which whilst very welcome are taking a long time to arrive. This is preventing Ukraine from going on the offensive. When asked if there would be a counter-offensive this year Zelensky's response was "It will happen immediately when we have all the equipment that Congress has voted for and that European leaders have supported. I don't know the schedule. Unfortunately, no one knows. And this is the biggest tragedy of this war". Jonathan observes that the situation is frustrating for Ukraine who are grateful for the support, but this is tempered by the fact that many people are dying every day as a consequence of not having what they need.
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USA - Military Aid
🎦 04:48-11:00⏩
The Biden administration has announced additional security assistance for Ukraine.
- A Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package valued at $150 million. Jonathan explains that whilst this equates to $150 million of equipment from US stockpiles (which will need to be replenished), the actual cost is less than this as it is costed at the value at the time it was purchased, rather than its current value. The cost to replace this equipment is met through separate funding.
- $2.2 Billion of Security Assistance Initiative funds (USAIai funding), which will be used to place orders with US manufacturers. This funding will help to stimulate the US economy as it is effectively a cash injection that will have a multiplier effect.
- $2.2 billion worth of interceptors for Patriot and NASAMS air defence systems. This suggests that Ukraine will be receiving more Patriot air defence systems in the near future.
- Hawk Missiles
- Ammunition for HIMARS and GMLRS (Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems), 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds, 81mm mortar rounds.
- TOW missiles for Bradley's. Jonathan wonders if these are being used more than is being reported, suggesting that they may be being used against buildings and trenches, rather than tanks which are more likely to be filmed.
- Javelin and NLAW anti-armour systems.
- Small arms ammunition and grenades.
- Demolition equipment and munitions.
- Tactical vehicles
- Tactical air navigation systems and aircraft support equipment
- Spare parts, maintenance and other field equipment
- Jonathan observes that whilst the US is providing much needed Military Aid to Ukraine, this is not high tech equipment such as Bradley's or Abrams.
Ukraine
🎦 11:00-11:26⏩
The city council of Vinnytsia has delivered a batch of 2,000 FPV strike drones to the Ukrainian armed forces.
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Germany - Military Aid
🎦 11:26-13:43⏩
Germany has sent a massive arms delivery to Ukraine which includes:
- 40 tank systems (unspecified)
- 22,000 artillery shells
- 3 HIMARS
- 2 modern air defence systems (unspecified)
- 11 Biber Bridgelayer tanks
- 21 Pionierpanzer Dachs armoured engineering vehicles
- 18 Bergepanzer 2 armoured recovery vehicles
- 42 Minenräumpanzer Wiesel mine clearing vehicles
- 120 Marders
- 50 Leopard 105 tanks
- Ammunition for Marders and Leopard 1 tanks
- 3 IRIS-T SLM (medium range)
- 2 IRIS-T SLS (short range)
Jonathan states that these deliveries must be totals, rather than the amount sent in one delivery.
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France - Military Aid
🎦 13:43-14:12⏩
France has donated 41 electric generators to Kharkiv and Chernihiv. These regions have been badly affected by Russian strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, which has resulted in a 70% reduction in Ukraine's electricity generating capacity.
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Ukraine
🎦 14:12-14:43⏩
Jonathan revisits the interview with President Zelensky. The Ukrainian army is now better equipped than it was a few months ago but is waiting until the 14 brigades are fully equipped before considering a counter-offensive.
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Geopolitics - Russia/Netherlands
🎦 14:43-15:19⏩
Vladimir Tarabrin, the Russian ambassador to the Netherlands has threatened to launch military strikes against Volkel Air Base in the Netherlands. This is where the F-16s that are due to be sent to Ukraine are currently stationed. Jonathan is outraged by this threat, describing it as outrageous, and questions whether there has been a response.
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Geopolitics - NATO
🎦 15:19-21:02⏩
Jonathan discusses a Financial Times article entitled "The untold story of the most chaotic NATO summit ever" about Trump's attendance at the 2018 NATO summit. At the summit, Trump threatened to withdraw the US from NATO, accusing other member states of not paying their dues. Jonathan reads an extract from the article: > "Trump's first NATO summit the previous year had been a muted affair during which he largely kept his isolationist rhetoric and his temper in check. Back then, he was still being handled and hemmed in by his staff. But now, after 18 months in office, he'd come to Brussels, determined to awaken Europe to a stark new geopolitical reality. The NATO that will meet in Washington next week for its 75th anniversary summit has been vastly reshaped by the changed landscape. America's NATO allies have ramped up defence spending to unprecedented levels. They will spend a combined $430 billion this year, 55% more than before Trump's Brussels interventions. The following account of the 2018 summit is based on conversations with more than two dozen leaders, officials and advisors who were present then, all of them spoke on the condition of anonymity, and, many winced at the memory". Jonathan states that this was a bombastic performance by Trump at the summit and that whilst he was right to insist that member states increase their defence spending, he fundamentally misunderstands how NATO funding works. Jonathan quotes Trump: >"massive amounts of money is owed. It's not, NATO isn't something, again, that you pay for that, like, and then now you owe, if you haven't paid up, you owe someone for that. You're paying on your own defence, right? And we expect you to pay more for your own defence, but it's your security. You don't owe us if you haven't done that. If you haven't spent enough on your defence, you don't owe me a billion dollars." Jonathan explains that Trump's approach to NATO funding is transactional and that member states decide how much they spend on their own defence. It is not something that they "owe" to NATO or the US. > "and he says the united states have paid up and stepped up like nobody, this has gone on for decades by the way, this has gone on for many presidents, but no other president brought it up like I bring it up, so something has to be done and indeed he did like say some of the right things but probably in, well, probably in the wrong way but in the right way so that people actually went oh". Jonathan explains that Trump's outburst caused panic amongst the other member states who scrambled to produce some graphs to appease Trump that showed that they were increasing their defence spending to the tune of an extra $33 billion. At this point, Trump, who had apparently achieved his goal, held an impromptu press conference (which would normally be given by the Secretary General). > "went out and gave a press conference which was very unusual because usually the secretary general gives a press conference straight away after, Trump was like no move aside guys it's all about me and fair enough and he went and gave this this press conference that said look what I've done I'm amazing I'm cool and I've got this now, whether that was actually as much as he thought it was or like coming from, it might have been a bit fudged is what is what I'm I'm getting out, it's the indication I get from there and then eventually like NATO's really properly stepped up and of course Trump takes a lot of responsibility for that but but like I keep saying like like it's not that he was wrong like he was right that people needed to pay more" Jonathan concludes that Trump was right to insist that member states increase defence spending, but his heavy handed approach and his flawed understanding of how NATO operates was counter-productive. Defence spending has increased across NATO, but whether Trump was the catalyst is debatable. > "So the motivation for increasing defence spending, so where we're at right now, said another. It wasn't just about Trump. It was about a range of other issues to do with increasing threats, etc. I don't think you will ever find any European leaders who say that they increased defence spending as a result of Trump's hectoring. But I'm sure that it had an impact behind the scenes for some countries as they were making their calculations at the margins. I mean, he particularly had the countries at the bottom of the list like Spain and I think the Czech Republic at the time. The Czech Republic claimed that their GDP had gone up really quickly. And so their defence spending hadn't been able to catch up with that. Because you usually do your defence spending a long time in advance. And if you have like an economic boom, then there can be an unfair disparity there. That was their excuse."
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Wrap up
🎦 21:02-21:08⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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