Ukraine Conflict: 4-Day Full Frontline Update

"I think, you know, you've got to fight somewhere, and rather you'd fight the Russians as far away from your key positions as possible. And so it's not that Chasiv Yar is in itself intrinsically valuable, but it is extrinsically valuable. It is valuable for keeping these other places safe or at least safer."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:39⏩
Jonathan expresses relief at feeling better after a period of illness. He acknowledges that the last frontline update was on the 5th of December, making this a five-day update, which he apologises for. He asks viewers to consult the key on his map for clarification on the meaning of the lines, which will indicate significant changes since the last update. He mentions that the mapping is already half a day out of date, and the lines may have shifted slightly since his last update.

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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND

Kursk Oblast: Russian gains near Borky and Plakovo

🎦 00:40-01:56⏩, 02:18-02:35⏩

• According to Suriyak Maps, a pro-Russian mapper (who Jonathan notes is often falsely presented as objective), Russian forces have made significant gains on the eastern side of the Kursk salient, around and west of Borky and Plakovo.
• Andrew Perpetua, a pro-Ukrainian mapper, indicates that the Russian defensive line is further east, suggesting this area is a grey zone of active fighting.
• Suriyak Maps claims Russian forces are in full control of Plakovo, a sizeable town in the area.
• The two mappers have vastly different interpretations of the situation in this area.

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Kursk Oblast: Ukrainian counterattacks near Darino and Pogrepki

🎦 01:57-02:17⏩, 02:35-02:45⏩, 03:22-04:18⏩, 04:25-05:00⏩

• In the northern part of the Kursk salient, Ukrainians have reportedly pushed back Russian forces near Pogrepki, north of Mala Lachny.
• There has been a lot of fighting around Martynivka, with some back-and-forth movement.
• Greyskull reports a Ukrainian counterattack near Darino in the Kursk Oblast, resulting in the retaking of some land.
• Previous reports indicated that Ukrainians had retaken some of Darino, but the situation may have changed hands again.

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Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian gains in Hlyboke

🎦 05:01-06:22⏩

• In the Lyptsi and Vovchansk areas of Kharkiv Oblast, north of the city of Kharkiv, Ukrainians have potentially taken more ground in Hlyboke.
• Greyskull suggests that roughly half of Hlyboke is now under Ukrainian control, with gains in the southern part.
• Suriyak Maps shows Russian control extending further south, but Greyskull indicates Ukrainian control or a grey zone in parts of that southern area.
• Greyskull also suggests that Ukrainians control the area to the southwest, with a gap of grey zone, and are pushing northeast, while Russians control north of the road.
• The two mappers in this mapping synthesis do not agree on the situation in Hlyboke.

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Kharkiv Oblast: Ukrainian success in Vovchansk

🎦 06:23-07:44⏩

• Multiple sources report that Ukrainian forces are pushing back Russians in Vovchansk.
• Max24 reports that the Ukrainian military is having success, and the Russian Volunteer Corps (Russians fighting on the side of Ukraine) have entered the hospital's territory.
• Greyskull indicates that Ukrainians have gained ground north of the river in Vovchansk, with the aggregates plant now under Ukrainian control and a grey zone in the middle.
• This suggests that the hospital mentioned is under the control of the Russian Volunteer Corps.
• The two mappers disagree on the extent of the Ukrainian advance in Vovchansk.

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Luhansk Oblast: Russian gains south of Kyslivka and towards Pishchane

🎦 07:45-08:58⏩

• Greyskull reports some Ukrainian success south of Krokhmalne.
• Suriyak Maps claims Russian forces have taken more control in the area south of Kyslivka.
• Andrew Perpetua broadly agrees with the Ukrainian counterattack claim in this area, placing the Russian control line further back than Suriyak Maps.
• Russian forces are pushing on in the Pishchane sector and making gains further south, moving west towards the Oskil River.
• There has been no change to the Torske and Svatove front lines.

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Donetsk Oblast: Fighting in Chasiv Yar

🎦 08:59-09:44⏩, 09:45-10:54⏩

• Russian forces have made some gains in Chasiv Yar over the last five days, although Andrew Perpetua disagrees with the extent of these gains.
• Euromaidan Press reports that Ukrainian soldiers have cleared a district in Chasiv Yar, neutralising a Russian infantry group.
• Fighting remains intense, with Russia using infantry groups to attack Ukrainian positions.
• Jonathan expresses his hope that Russia does not take Chasiv Yar, as it is a crucial location for keeping Russian forces away from Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Sloviansk.
• He argues that while Chasiv Yar may not be intrinsically valuable, it is extrinsically valuable for its defensive qualities and its role in protecting other key locations.

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Donetsk Oblast: Russian advances in the Turetsk/New York area

🎦 10:55-11:57⏩

• The situation in Turetsk is reportedly "pretty bad" for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces making gains in the area.
• Suriyak Maps indicates further Russian advances in the Turetsk area, including gains near New York and along a nearby railway.

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Institute for the Study of War: 10th December 2024 - Russian use of drones with fibre optic cables

🎦 11:58-12:26⏩, 12:57-13:17⏩

• According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) daily report, summarised on Jonathan's website, a Ukrainian battalion deputy chief of staff in the Turetsk direction stated that Russian forces are using drones equipped with fibre optic cables to overcome Ukrainian electronic warfare.
• Jonathan has previously reported on this Russian advantage in his "Hits and Losses" and "Military Aid" videos.

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Institute for the Study of War: 10th December 2024 - Russian casualties in Kharkiv Oblast

🎦 12:26-12:56⏩, 13:18-13:39⏩

• A Ukrainian battalion commander operating in Kharkiv reported that the ratio of Ukrainian to Russian casualties is one to seven, meaning Russian forces are suffering significantly higher losses in the Hlyboke and Vovchansk areas.

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Donetsk Oblast: Russian advances towards Pokrovsk and Shevchenko

🎦 13:40-14:51⏩, 15:42-16:21⏩

• Russian forces are making advances towards Pokrovsk, particularly south of the city, and are in control of a significant portion of Novopokrovske.
• ISW reports a Russian military blogger's claim that Russian forces occupy a third of Novopokrovske.
• There are claims that the Russian military command plans to deploy additional forces to the Pokrovsk direction between the 13th and 18th of December.
• Some reports suggest that 6,000 to 7,000 troops may be redeployed from Syria to the Ukrainian front.
• Russian forces are approaching Shevchenko and making gains in a north-westerly direction.
• A report indicates that if Russian forces continue their push northwards, they will be able to reach the Dnipropetrovsk Road, the main supply road to Pokrovsk.
• Pokrovsk is an important logistical centre with a hub of roads, and the road from the south has been interdicted.

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Donetsk Oblast: Russian advances towards Novodmytrivka and Zorya

🎦 14:52-15:38⏩, 16:22-17:00⏩

• Russian forces are making gains north of Novodmytrivka on the way to Zorya, with Andrew Perpetua agreeing on the extent of Russian control in the area.
• Further south, Russian forces are filling in the gap north of the Vovcha reservoir near Krasnohorivka, equalising the front line.
• While they haven't yet fully equalised the front line, the advance from the north will pose a challenge for Ukrainian forces.
• In the Kurakhove area, Russian forces are filling in gaps and have moved up almost to Uspenivka along the river valley towns and villages.
• It is anticipated that they will continue to equalise the front line all the way up to Shevchenko.

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Donetsk Oblast: Russian advances north of the Vovcha reservoir near Krasnohorivka

🎦 15:39-15:41⏩, 17:01-17:16⏩

• Further south, Russian forces are filling in the gap north of the Vovcha reservoir near Krasnohorivka, equalising the front line.
• While they haven't yet fully equalised the front line, the advance from the north will pose a challenge for Ukrainian forces.
• It is anticipated that they will continue to equalise the front line all the way up to Shevchenko.
• Jonathan raises questions about how long Ukrainian forces can hold on in this area and the attritional ratio.

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Donetsk Oblast: Russian advances near Vuhledar and towards Sukhi Yali

🎦 17:17-18:13⏩

• North of Vuhledar, Russian forces have made slight gains towards Sukhi Yali.
• Geolocated footage confirms that the ultimate goal of the Russians is to reach the road between Kostiantynivka and Kurakhove.
• Sukhi Yali is located along the meandering river, and Russian forces are attempting to cut the road from both the north and south, potentially trapping Ukrainian troops in the area.
• There is a major east-west trench line in the area, and it is crucial for Ukrainian forces to prevent Russian forces from getting north of it.

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Kherson Oblast: Increased Russian activity on the Dnipro River

🎦 18:14-18:53⏩, 19:43-21:31⏩

• Along the southern front, Russian forces have made significant gains, including around Velyka Novosilka.
• They are pushing up the Mokri Yali River towards Storozheve, Neskuchne, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Some Russians are reporting a potential Ukrainian attack across the river near Oleshky, opposite the main city of Kherson, but Jonathan considers this unlikely.
• Russian forces have become much more active on the Dnipro River, attempting to take control of the islands in the delta.
• There has been an uptick in boat losses on both sides, but particularly on the Russian side, in the past week.
• There is a lot of activity around Potemkin Island and further up the delta.
• The Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukrainian electronic warfare systems are effectively countering lower-quality domestically produced Russian Shahed drones but still lack proper air defences to counter missile strikes.
• However, Jonathan notes that the Ukrainian interception rate for Russian missiles has improved from 8% to 40%.

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Wrap up

🎦 21:32-22:45⏩

• Jonathan summarises the situation as showing "fairly worrying signs" in many of the same places previously discussed.
• He highlights the Russians' struggle to retake Kursk despite having a claimed 50,000 troops there.
• He mentions a claim from Zelensky that 800,000 Russian troops are being held back by Ukrainian forces.
• He discusses the upcoming five weeks until the inauguration, suggesting that it is a crucial time for Ukrainians to inflict as much damage on Russian forces as possible.
• Jonathan asks for viewers' thoughts, reminds them to like, subscribe, and share, and mentions his goal of reaching 50,139 subscribers.

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