Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid News

"It's one individual, one human being, not a national entity, not the Department of Defense, not the entire government of the US, one private individual. And we have to start wondering whether this is the kind of situation we want to be in where individuals who are so easily skewed and biased, there's just one brain that have very poor..."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:38⏩
Jonathan welcomes everyone to the channel for part two of the 28th December 2024 update. He explains that today's video is a little later than normal because he was enjoying Christmas drinks at the pub with a friend. Jonathan jokes that at this rate the world will soon be solved due to the amount of time he has spent in the pub recently!

Return to top⤴️

US to provide $1.25bn Military Aid package to Ukraine

🎦 00:38-02:26⏩
The US is to provide a $1.25bn military aid package to Ukraine. The package will include a "significant amount" of munitions for NASAMS and HAWK air defence systems as well as Stinger missiles and artillery rounds (105mm and 155mm). Jonathan speculates that more aid may be provided on top of this. The Euromaidan Press (citing AP) reports that this reflects the Biden administration's push to send as much aid as possible. The article confirms that the package will include munitions for NASAMS and HAWK, and Jonathan believes that rather than just munitions, entire HAWK air defence systems may be included in the package which would be good news as they're useful for Ukraine as part of their wider air defence network against Russian missiles and drones.

Return to top⤴️

US unlikely to provide more ATACMs to Ukraine

🎦 02:26-04:13⏩
Jonathan discusses a New York Times article by Colby Badwa which states that Ukraine had around 50 ATACM missiles left when Biden announced that he was lifting restrictions on their usage deep into Russia. Initially, when the US supplied Ukraine with 500 of these missiles they restricted their use to occupied territories only. The lifting of these restrictions came when Ukraine had very few missiles left. Despite the US having ample supplies of these missiles, Ukraine is unlikely to receive more as supplies have been earmarked for the Middle East and Asia. Colby Badwa argues that the US could have spared more given production rates and existing stockpiles. The UK has also indicated it has few Storm Shadow missiles left to give to Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

Ukrainian and Russian Missile capabilities

🎦 04:13-06:01⏩
A representative from Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) has said that Ukrainian drones can now operate at a range of 2,000km. Jonathan then discusses Russian long range missile capabilities (likely in response to this news). Russia has stockpiles of around 1,400 long range missiles, and is able to produce 40-50 Iskander, 30-50 Kalibr and around 50 Kh-101 missiles per month (around 10 of each, per week). Jonathan reasons that if Russia is stockpiling for a month, this equates to around 40 missiles per month. He notes that whilst this doesn't seem much, Russia has to maintain a strategic reserve in case of war with other countries, and that if Russia were to go to war with Poland now for example, it would lose a conventional war as it has exhausted itself in Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

Greece to send 24 Sea Sparrow missiles to Ukraine

🎦 06:01-06:50⏩
Greece has announced it will provide 24 Sea Sparrow missiles to Ukraine for use in their "FrankenSAMs". Sea Sparrows are anti-aircraft missiles designed to be launched from ships but have been adapted to be used in older, Soviet-era BUK air defence systems. This was the first instance Jonathan is aware of where Soviet equipment was combined with NATO munitions. Whilst this is good news, Jonathan notes that this is a drop in the ocean compared to what Ukraine needs but that it is still useful given that Ukraine can no longer source BUK missiles from Russia.

Return to top⤴️

Jonathan needs a cup of tea!

🎦 06:50-07:02⏩
Jonathan takes a well earned cup of tea as he needs to dilute the two and a half pints of Boltmaker that he drank earlier.

Return to top⤴️

Leopard 1 Tanks arriving in Ukraine

🎦 07:02-09:12⏩
After a two year wait, Leopard 1 tanks are finally arriving in Ukraine in significant numbers (Forbes). Although it has taken German industry 19 months to refurbish and deliver the first 58 tanks, a German-led consortium (Germany, Netherlands, Belgium) has pledged to send at least 155 Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Jonathan notes that according to The Ukraine Support Tracker (Kiel Institute), Belgium appears to be higher up the list than expected in terms of those countries providing aid, and that whilst some of this is likely to be funded by the EU, Belgium must be contributing to consortiums such as this one. 45 Leopard tanks have been delivered to Ukraine since early September, with a further 52 due to be delivered soon. The delivery schedule is important as the Leopard 1 is set to become the most numerous Western tank in Ukraine, outnumbering the 104 Leopard 2s, 80 M1s (49 Australian, 31 US) and 14 Challenger 2s. Jonathan notes that he had heard rumours that the UK had sent double the number of Challenger 2 tanks that had been announced at the time.

Return to top⤴️

Leopard 1 Tanks - Deployment and capabilities

🎦 09:12-12:29⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff has allocated the Challenger 2, M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks to their respective brigades. As such, Leopard 1 tanks are the only tanks available to equip the 12 heavy brigades that Ukraine has formed in recent months. A Ukrainian mechanised brigade normally consists of a single tank battalion with 31 tanks. There has been some criticism of Ukraine for creating new brigades, rather than allocating new recruits to existing brigades. The most recent batch of 15 Leopard 1 tanks were announced by Berlin on Monday, as well as armoured trucks, artillery, air defence equipment, ammunition and €7bn in aid. Jonathan goes on to describe the capabilities of the Leopard 1 tank - despite not being a new tank, it is not the oldest tank in the Ukrainian inventory. Whilst it is considered to be light with limited armour (especially when compared to the 69 tonne M1 Abrams) it does have some advantages - it is reliable, has a 105mm main gun and has a good fire-control system (FCS) and optics. Jonathan explains why this is so important " _And this is the important thing. FCS, decent fire control systems and optics, that's the super important part, which is if you can see the enemy before they can see you, and if you can quickly acquire that target and then lock onto that target and your fire control system can fire that reliable gun at that target, then that's worth more, arguably, than having decent armor and X, Y, and Z. It's about finding your target and hitting the target before they can do that to you._" The Ukrainians have tried to improve the tank's armour by adding reactive armour and anti-drone netting. Of the 58 Leopard 1 tanks delivered between July 2023 and September 2023, only 6 were destroyed. That said, it appears that Ukraine is reluctant to deploy Leopard 1 tanks to the most dangerous areas of the front line and for recent incursions into Kursk Oblast in Russia, Ukraine used M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 A6s tanks. Leopard 1 crews have expressed confidence in their tanks, and one of the key design features to improve safety is the storage of ammunition within the hull rather than the turret. This reduces the risk of the 105mm rounds cooking off and exploding if the turret is hit. The downside to this is that the tank has to return to a safe location to reload. Despite this, crews remain confident in the tank. Jonathan finishes this topic by praising David Axe for his coverage of the conflict and for being a staunch supporter of Ukraine.

Return to top⤴️

Ukraine likely to use Mirage Jets for Ground attack

🎦 12:29-13:14⏩
Ukraine is likely to use its French Mirage jets for ground attack missions rather than air-to-air combat (Euromaiden Press citing an unnamed Ukrainian pilot). The Mirage 2000-5F is usually used as a fighter jet, more suited to reconnaissance and air-to-air combat than ground attack, however the French adapted the aircraft so that it could deploy SCALP cruise missiles, AASM Hammer guided bombs and other munitions. Whilst the exact number of Mirage jets that Ukraine will receive is unknown, it is likely to be around 6.

Return to top⤴️

Ukraine needs 200 aircraft to secure its airspace

🎦 13:14-14:07⏩
The Head of the Ukrainian Pilot Association (Henady Kazan) has said that Ukraine needs at least 200 aircraft to secure its airspace. Jonathan notes that this number is very similar to the number of F-16s that were initially discussed when coalitions of countries came together to discuss providing fighter jets for Ukraine. Given that Ukraine will be lucky to get 100 F-16s, securing 200 aircraft seems unlikely any time soon. Jonathan notes that Ukraine is seeking international support to boost its air capabilities with both Mirage 2000 and F-16 fighter jets, and that whilst Ukraine will receive at least 6 Mirage jets, it is unlikely to receive 20 from France. There may be some coming from Greece however. Jonathan wonders what is happening with the Gripen jets that were promised.

Return to top⤴️

Gripen Jets for Ukraine - What happened?

🎦 14:07-17:57⏩
Jonathan discusses a comment by a viewer - Jan Asfeller who wants to know what is happening with the Gripen jets. There were at least 14 Gripen jets in the works, but this appears to have been put on hold in favour of 3-6 Mirage jets. Jonathan's understanding is that Ukraine will accept all the military aid it can get, however the more equipment they receive the harder it is to maintain, operate, train on and equip (in terms of different ammunition/parts etc) as they are all different. Jonathan uses the example of self-propelled howitzers but notes that the same applies to aircraft. It is useful to have some variety in equipment, but not too much. When it comes to tanks for example, if crews are trained on one type, and then it is destroyed and the replacement is completely different, it can make things very difficult, especially in terms of logistics and maintenance. The same is true for aircraft - it is complex. Jonathan's believes that Ukraine initially had two aircraft in mind - the F-16 and the Eurofighter, with Gripens being more of a rumour, however provision of Gripens was then paused (not by Ukraine). Sweden has set aside funding, maintenance and spare parts for when Gripens are eventually sent. Jonathan wonders if Ukrainian pilots are already being trained on Gripens in secret but is unsure. The F-16s have now been provided and it seems that this is where the focus lies, and that provision of Gripens were paused as a result of this so as not to upset the apple cart. Interestingly it seems that the decision to pause Gripen provision was made by the countries supplying the F-16s and not by Ukraine. The arrival of Mirage jets, in Jonathan's opinion, is a result of France doing what they do best - acting unilaterally. He believes that whilst France is a NATO member, they act very independently as evidenced by their stance on the Red Sea coalition some years ago, and that the French don't really care what the US position is on the use of certain equipment, citing ITAR restrictions which restrict the use of US equipment or equipment that contains US parts. Jonathan believes that the French are right to do this, and that it's a good thing that Ukraine is receiving Mirages as well as F-16s. He just wishes that the same was happening with the Gripens, but that ultimately the reason that Ukraine has Mirage jets now is because France made it happen.

Return to top⤴️

Ukraine has over 170 different types of drone

🎦 17:57-19:26⏩
Drone supplies to Ukraine are up 19% in 2024 compared to the previous year (Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - Valery Zaluzhny). Ukrainian forces are now using over 170 different types of drone. Whilst drones may not need as much maintenance compared to other equipment (you fly them until they're blown up), it is still a logistical challenge in terms of keeping track of different parts, training, software and repairs. Jonathan notes that Ukraine is moving towards creating a unified framework for their drone operations to simplify this. As well as this, 96.2% of drones used in 2024 were Ukrainian made. According to the Ukrainian Defence Minister (Rustem Umerov) over 1.5 million First Person View (FPV) drones were produced in Ukraine in 2024 alone.

Return to top⤴️

Ukraine developing Shotgun Drone interceptors

🎦 19:26-20:05⏩
Jonathan refers to videos he shared earlier of a Ukrainian-developed, interceptor drone that is being used to take out Russian Mavic drones. The drone is equipped with two shotguns that can be reloaded in flight.

Return to top⤴️

Cold War Tactics used by Russia

🎦 20:05-22:06⏩
Jonathan discusses a comment from a viewer - Xpenguin95, who was alarmed at NATO's preparations for a potential attack from the Soviet Union in the 1980s as the strategies/tactics being discussed at the time seem relevant today in terms of what Russia is doing. Jonathan lists the main tactics being used by Russia (taken from Xpenguin95's comment):

• Sabotaging key communication and control nodes such as internet infrastructure.
• Undermining public trust in national governments through disinformation/misinformation to create confusion and division.
• Placing agents in influential mid-to-high level positions of power to erode confidence and decision making in governments (Georgia, Romania, Moldova, Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia).
• Creating discord amongst NATO and Western nations (e.g. Brexit) to weaken collective strength.
• False flag operations designed to manipulate perceptions and escalate tensions (both within Ukraine and internationally).
• Sabotaging vital industries and military capabilities.
• Provocative incidents designed to frame Russia as the victims (e.g. false claims that NATO is attacking Russia).

Jonathan thanks Xpenguin95 for his comment, and agrees that this is what appears to be happening.

Return to top⤴️

Russian Drone Production

🎦 22:06-23:28⏩
5,760 drones were produced in the first nine months of 2024 at Russia's Alabuga drone manufacturing facility (CNN), equating to around 21 per day. Production of decoy drones, such as the Garan, are much higher (around 10,000 per year). Decoy drones cost around 10 times less than other drones and as such many more are being used to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences, depleting their resources and munitions. This tactic appears to be working.

Return to top⤴️

Russian Claims: Ukraine using foreign drones for HIMARS/ATACMS Targeting

🎦 23:28-24:36⏩
Russian sources claim that foreign contractors are carrying out drone reconnaissance to locate targets for Ukrainian HIMARS and ATACMS strikes. Two drones are being used - the American Puma 3AE with a secure data link and the British (formerly Portuguese) Cava AP-3 drone. The Cava is equipped with infrared cameras and can fly up to 16 hours, and is also able to carry a synthetic aperture radar. Jonathan notes that this suggests that the drones being used to locate targets for HIMARS, ATACMS and Storm Shadow strikes are very capable.

Return to top⤴️

Russia equips Shahed drones with AI

🎦 24:36-25:30⏩
Russia has equipped its Shahed drones with AI to enable them to fly autonomously and identify power plants (Politico). This makes them more difficult for Ukrainian air defences to intercept. Jonathan notes that AI seems to be a key focus for both sides in this conflict.

Return to top⤴️

Zelensky urges China to stop North Korea sending troops

🎦 25:30-26:10⏩
Zelensky has appealed to China to use its influence to stop North Korea sending soldiers to Ukraine (Kyiv Independent). In an address on December 27th, Zelensky highlighted the losses that North Korean troops had faced so far fighting in Ukraine, particularly in Kursk Oblast. Jonathan doubts that this will have much impact but concedes that there's no harm in trying.

Return to top⤴️

Impact of Assad's removal on Russia's war in Ukraine

🎦 26:10-27:22⏩
The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria following a rebel offensive in November could have significant consequences for Russia. As well as disrupting Russia's ability to recruit Syrian fighters for the war in Ukraine, it also makes their operations in Africa harder, particularly as Russia was using Syria as a logistics base for operations in the Sahel and Libya.

Return to top⤴️

Starlink, Elon Musk and Taiwan

🎦 27:22-36:03⏩
Jonathan discusses a conversation between Ian Bremmer (American political scientist) and a host of the Rest is Politics podcast about Elon Musk and Starlink and its significance in the Ukraine war. Bremmer believes that whilst Musk's decision to provide Starlink to Ukraine was significant, and that Musk and other tech leaders wield considerable power, the fact that one person was able to make that decision, potentially influencing the outcome of the war, is problematic. The US Department of Defense has since taken over the Starlink contract, but Jonathan wonders what would happen if China invaded Taiwan, and whether Musk would make the same decision again, given that his business interests are very much tied to China. Would Musk side with Taiwan and the US, and face repercussions from China? Jonathan thinks not. He highlights that this is a national security issue, and that these are decisions that should be made by governments who are accountable to their people. Elon Musk (and Mark Zuckerberg) are only accountable to themselves, which is dangerous as one person can't be expected to fully understand the nuances of geopolitics, and are more likely to have a lack of information on which to base their decisions. Jonathan uses the example of the recent New York Times infographic that highlighted how much power Musk has as he controls so many satellites and is essentially able to turn off/on communications around the world at will. Whilst Musk may well be trying to do a good thing, and that he may have a constructive role to play in geopolitics, it is concerning that one person can wield so much power. Jonathan finishes by wondering what Musk gets in return from China in exchange for his silence (given that he is one of very few tech leaders who has not been silenced by China) and whether Musk is compromised, and is in fact a puppet of Xi Jinping.

Return to top⤴️