Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
"And then you've got this like rotten mouthpiece of, you know, Putin's got inside David Sachs's head and is living there rent-free. And every time David Sachs opens his mouth, just like 'Alien,' you've got like this other mouth that comes out and it's Putin going [makes alien noises]"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:13⏩
Jonathan Pearce (Jon) welcomes viewers to another ATPG update. He mentions an upcoming interview with Jonathan Fink from Silicon Curtain (Thursday at 5pm) and Anastasia Paraskovova from Kharkiv (live tomorrow).
Return to top⤴️
US Military Aid and Politics
🎦 01:14-03:05⏩
- The White House is urging Speaker Johnson to advance the Senate-approved aid bill for Ukraine.
- While it's good news that Johnson is proposing continued aid to Ukraine, it's likely to be less favourable than the Senate bill as it may include loans instead of grants.
- The Biden administration is reiterating that passing the Senate bill through the House is the best course of action.
- USAID is sending 109 generators, 19 heat and power co-generation units, and 13 emergency vehicles to maintain essential services in several Ukrainian cities, including Dnipro, Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Chukchi and Chernihiv.
European Military Aid: Training and Equipment
🎦 03:05-04:16⏩
- Estonian Defence Minister Hanna Pevkur confirms that European soldiers will not be directly involved in combat in Ukraine but could be deployed to expedite Ukrainian troop training within Ukraine. This would prove more efficient than sending Ukrainian soldiers abroad for training.
- Germany will provide Ukraine with 180,000 artillery shells, valued at €576 million as part of a Czech-led ammunition procurement initiative for Kyiv.
Increased Ukrainian Artillery Use and Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 04:16-05:34⏩
Increased footage of Ukrainian artillery and cluster munitions in use points to the Ukrainians' likely strategy of utilising existing stockpiles in anticipation of receiving newly pledged ammunition supplies. Russian equipment losses continue to mount as they advance in specific areas.
Return to top⤴️
German Military Aid
🎦 05:34-06:50⏩
Germany's contribution of €576 million towards the artillery shell initiative brings its total aid pledges to Ukraine to at least €1 billion in March, following a pledge of over €1.2 billion in February. This makes Germany the single largest supporter of Ukraine in real terms this year, exceeding historical US contributions. Jon encourages his German viewers to reach out to discuss Germany's aid efforts.
Return to top⤴️
Military Aid Updates: Greece and CAESAR Howitzers
🎦 06:51-09:19⏩
- Greece will send thousands of rounds of inactive but usable ammunition to Ukraine through the Czech initiative, with the deal estimated at $163 million.
- France is expected to transfer 78 CAESAR howitzers to Ukraine, facilitated by Denmark.
- The manufacturer of CAESAR howitzers, Nexter, has tripled its monthly production from two to six units and aims to reach 12 per month. This increase was partly driven by the system’s successful combat performance in Ukraine, which has boosted international demand.
South Korean Arms Exports
🎦 08:04-09:19⏩
Jon highlights Perun's recent videos analysing global arms exports, including one focusing on South Korea's remarkable growth. He points to South Korea's ability to significantly ramp up production, flexible licensing models, and the development of a new fourth or fifth-generation fighter jet with an initial production rate of 20 units per year as examples of its success.
Return to top⤴️
Ukraine's Increased Drone Production and Capabilities
🎦 10:17-11:42⏩
Ukraine has significantly increased its long-range drone capabilities. Two drones recently struck targets in Russia's Tatarstan region, 1,125 kilometres from the front lines, showcasing a range exceeding the typical 700 to 1,000 kilometres of drones used to target Russian oil refineries. Mikhail Fedorov, Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, stated that Ukraine boosted its long-range drone production tenfold in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Return to top⤴️
Impact of Sanctions on Russia's Defence Industry
🎦 11:42-14:47⏩
The latest UK Defence Intelligence assessment highlights the ongoing disruption of Russia's defence industry due to sanctions.
- While Russia can still obtain necessary components and materials for weapons production through third-party countries, this comes at a significantly higher cost due to price premiums and complex supply chains.
- Research suggests that these premiums can exceed 60% for certain sanctioned goods.
- The impact of sanctions is most pronounced on advanced and complex weapons systems reliant on foreign components and technology, rather than on basic munitions like artillery shells, which Russia has increased production of.
- Sanctions have also severely impacted Russia's arms exports, leading to a substantial decline in global market share (from 21% in 2014-2018 to 11% in 2019-2023) and significant delivery delays, even for its most important customers.
Iranian Shahid Drone Components and Production in Russia
🎦 14:47-15:40⏩
Natalia Humeniuk from Operational Command South reports that a plane carrying new components for Iranian Shahid drones arrived in Russia, indicating the expansion of drone production within Russian territory. The Russians have adopted specific letter markings for their domestically produced drones. This development highlights Ukraine’s awareness of the escalating drone threat and its proactive response through targeted strikes. Notably, one recent long-range drone attack targeted a suspected Shahid drone production facility in Tatarstan.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Disinformation and Influence Operations in Europe
🎦 15:40-18:13⏩
Jon shifts focus to Russian disinformation campaigns, a significant geopolitical challenge. Czech counterintelligence uncovered a pro-Russian network led by Viktor Medvedchuk, which aimed to bolster pro-Kremlin politicians within the European Parliament by disseminating pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian propaganda through the “Voice of Europe” website. This operation involved funnelling money, including cash and cryptocurrency, to politicians in Germany, France, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Hungary to influence the upcoming European Parliament elections. The investigation, conducted jointly by Czech outlet Deník N and Germany's Der Spiegel, specifically named German AfD lawmaker Peter Bystron as a suspected recipient. While Bystron initially responded evasively, he ultimately dismissed the allegations as slander. Another AfD MEP, Maximilian Krah, acknowledged giving interviews to Voice of Europe but denied receiving payments. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte expressed serious concern over these revelations, emphasizing the grave threat posed by foreign interference to European democracy, free elections, and freedom of speech.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Infiltration and Espionage in Austria
🎦 18:13-21:13⏩
Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer announced that the country's National Security Council will convene to address concerns over Russian intelligence infiltration. This move follows the recent exposure of a Russian spy operating within Austria. Jon highlights the complexities of Austria's neutral stance, which, while precluding direct military support to Ukraine, might inadvertently provide a breeding ground for pro-Russian sentiment and complicate intelligence sharing among Ukraine's allies. This distrust stems from the fear of sensitive information leaking back to Russia, hindering the effectiveness of collective support for Ukraine. Germany is also mentioned as facing similar challenges, further complicating matters.
Return to top⤴️
David Sachs, Elon Musk, and the Spread of Russian Propaganda
🎦 21:13-24:59⏩
- Jon criticizes David Sachs for promoting Russian propaganda, drawing a comparison to the film “Alien,” where an alien creature bursts from a character's chest.
- Jon argues that Sachs consistently parrots Kremlin talking points, which are then amplified by Elon Musk, further spreading disinformation. He expresses frustration with their persistent efforts to downplay and deflect blame from Russia.
- Jon cites a recent example where Sachs dismissed a report linking the Havana Syndrome to Russian activities as a conspiracy theory fabricated by the military-industrial complex.
- He questions the limits of free speech when individuals like Sachs exploit it to disseminate harmful propaganda. Jon proposes a thought experiment: What if the US Department of Defence invited Sachs and Musk to the Pentagon, presented them with classified information debunking their claims, and urged them to publicly acknowledge their errors?
- He expresses hope that such an intervention might prompt a change of heart, though he acknowledges the possibility of further entrenchment. Jon concludes by soliciting his audience’s opinions on this hypothetical scenario.
Lukashenko's Denial of Sanctions Impact and War Preparations
🎦 25:00-26:05⏩
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has prohibited officials from discussing the impact of sanctions, maintaining a facade of normalcy despite the economic strain. This approach aims to prevent any dissent or acknowledgement of the difficulties caused by sanctions.
- Concurrently, Lukashenko announced that Belarus is actively preparing for war, emphasizing that such preparedness is essential for maintaining peace.
- While he clarifies that Belarus has no immediate plans to engage in conflict, this statement underscores the country's ongoing militarization and alignment with Russia.
South Korean Sanctions on Russian Entities over North Korean Military Cooperation
🎦 26:05-26:52⏩
South Korea has imposed sanctions on two Russian ships, two Russian companies, and their executives for engaging in military cooperation with North Korea. This action is a direct response to North Korea's supply of military equipment and ammunition to Russia, estimated to involve over 7,000 containers worth of materiel. Jon welcomes this move by South Korea, highlighting the need to hold North Korea accountable for its support of Russia's war efforts.
Return to top⤴️
Dmytro Kuleba's Visit to The Hague
🎦 26:52-27:22⏩
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is scheduled to visit The Hague to participate in a conference focused on holding Russia accountable for war crimes committed in Ukraine. Jon underscores the importance of pursuing justice and accountability for these crimes, both during and after the war. He highlights the recent case involving the downing of MH17, which resulted in the conviction in absentia of three individuals for war crimes, including Igor Girkin, currently imprisoned in Russia for criticizing the Kremlin.
Return to top⤴️
Trump's Call for an End to the Israel-Hamas War
🎦 27:38-34:12⏩
- In a significant development, Donald Trump has publicly called for an end to the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. He expressed concerns over the declining public support for Israel's actions, citing the negative impact of the devastation on its global image.
- Jon refrains from directly criticizing Trump, acknowledging the sensitivity of the issue, particularly within US politics.
- He suggests that Trump's stance could embolden Republican lawmakers to question the unconditional support traditionally given to Israel, potentially leading to greater scrutiny of US aid and demands for stricter oversight to prevent civilian casualties.
- Jon argues that a united political front in the US, acknowledging the excessive force used by Israel, could pave the way for a shift in focus back to Ukraine. He believes that the Ukraine conflict holds greater significance for US, European, and global stability than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
- He emphasizes the need for a unified response to the Israel-Palestine situation to avoid political divisions within the US that could benefit Russia and harm Ukraine’s prospects for receiving continued aid.
- Jon observes that the current Israeli government's actions, particularly the high civilian death toll, have alienated even left-leaning Democrats and eroded support for unconditional aid to Israel. This shift in sentiment within the Democratic Party could create an opportunity for a more balanced approach to the conflict.
- He concludes by suggesting that Trump’s statement, while unexpected, could be a pivotal moment that allows for greater scrutiny of Israeli actions and a renewed focus on supporting Ukraine.
Wrap Up
🎦 34:12-34:28⏩
Jon concludes the video by thanking his viewers for watching, encouraging them to like, subscribe, and share the content. He reminds them to watch out for upcoming live streams and bids them farewell.
Return to top⤴️
