Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: UA Counteroffensive Brigades, VKS Performance, & Rail Aid
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"In short, Ukraine's spring offensive will deploy the second most powerful artillery form military formation on the planet to crush the Russians."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video as an "Ukraine War Update Extra" providing extra tidbits and nuggets of information to give viewers a greater understanding of the war in Ukraine.
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Russian Air Force (VKS) Performance in Early Days of Invasion
Jonathan discusses a paper by Justin Bronk from the Royal United Services Institute analyzing the Russian Air Force (VKS) performance in the early days of the invasion:
- VKS failed to destroy the bulk of Ukraine's ground-based air defense (GBAD) assets despite an overall mismatch in force ratios
- Russian missile and aircraft strikes on Ukrainian air defenses were reasonably accurate but most sites had been vacated by mobile systems due to intelligence warnings
- VKS fighter patrols had some success engaging Ukrainian aircraft but used cumbersome command and control procedures
- Ukrainian air defenses used disciplined illumination times and relocation tactics to reduce effectiveness of Russian anti-radiation missiles
- Ukraine still lost a significant number of aircraft in the first week to Russian fighters and SAMs
Operation Iron Friendship - UK Railway Aid to Ukraine
Jonathan highlights the successful Operation Iron Friendship where the UK provided railway assistance to Ukraine:
- Ukrainian railways were damaged by both sides to deny use to the enemy
- The young Ukrainian railways chief commanded operations and evacuated 2.5 million refugees
- UK's Network Rail, specialist Royal Engineers (STRE) and companies provided equipment, training and assistance
- £10 million aid scheme regarded as an exemplar for value for money and governance
- Assistance was crucial to keep Ukraine's economy and logistics viable
Ukrainian Spring Offensive Brigades
Jonathan goes through an infographic by Thomas C. Theiner showing the publicly known Ukrainian brigades being prepared for the spring counteroffensive:
- 9 brigades shown, each with multiple tank, mechanized and artillery battalions
- At least 3 additional brigades and artillery brigades being readied
- Around 19+ combat brigades in total could be deployed
- 9 National Guard brigades also being prepared to secure liberated territory
- Crucial armored engineering vehicles to breach Russian defenses
- One artillery brigade with 60-80 howitzers will support every 3 combat brigades
- Ammunition has likely been stockpiled creating an "artillery hunger" on the front lines
- Mix of Western vehicles is irrelevant as long as they work - standardization can happen post-war
Topography of Southern Ukraine and Counteroffensive Routes
Using a topographic map, Jonathan analyzes the terrain of southern Ukraine and its implications for the counteroffensive:
- Elevated land in parts of Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts could pose challenges
- Flatter terrain towards Melitopol may be easier for targeting enemy forces
- Russians will try to second guess Ukrainian plans based on the topography
- Potential offensive routes could be towards Melitopol, Mariupol or skirting around higher ground
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks the viewers for their support and encourages them to like, subscribe and share the video.
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