Ukraine War Update NEWS: Overnight & Other News
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"21st century drone warfare is different from traditional 20th century land combat - simply far more accurate and kills more people with fewer shells. It has different casualty ratios to match."
Hello Team!
Jonathan provides the latest update on the Ukraine war, starting with Russian losses according to the Ukrainian General Staff. All the usual caveats apply but the figures are indicatively useful.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
- 540 liquidated personnel (down from previous days)
- 7 tanks (higher than usual)
- 5 APCs (a drop)
- 8 artillery systems (fewer but still significant)
- 42 drones (explained later in the video)
- 6 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 4 pieces of special equipment (down across most categories but seeing 4-5 daily recently, likely radars, electronic warfare installations, trench diggers, deminers etc. Useful to take out ahead of counter-offensive)
Accuracy of Ukrainian Reported Russian Losses
Trent Telenko and David Deare provide insight into the credibility of Ukrainian reported Russian KIA rates:
- More Russians are dying on camera for Ukrainian battle damage assessment than in any previous war. Western intelligence is having a hard time accepting this reality.
- David Deare saw 100-120 Russians die in just a few drone videos in one night. Jonathan can verify seeing shocking drone footage of trenches and fields full of dead Russian soldiers.
- Western intelligence insistence on 1 Russian death per 4 wounded is failing to accept the reality of 21st century drone warfare with more accurate strikes and different casualty ratios.
- Virtually no Ukrainian artillery or mortar shell fired is unobserved. Even automatic grenade launchers are firing as drone-observed indirect fire with matching videos.
Scale of Ukrainian Drone Operations
Thomas Theiner provides a back-of-the-envelope calculation on the potential scale of Ukrainian drone grenade drops on Russian soldiers:
- Ukraine has trained 10,000+ drone operators. Assuming 1 in 4 is trained to drop grenades, that's 2,500.
- If each flies 5 times per day to drop grenades, that's 12,500 grenades per day or 87,500 per week.
- With a maximum of 200,000 Russians on the front lines (likely less as 1-2,000 are killed each week), even if Ukraine drops just 20,000 grenades per week, no Russian soldier can spend a second without fear of Ukrainian drones. It's an excellent way to demoralize them.
Drone Strikes
Footage shows a Ukrainian Stormer HVM short-range air defense system being taken out by a Russian Lancet loitering munition drone. The Ukrainians realize it's coming but it's unclear if they survived. This is a shame as Ukraine needs this equipment and Lancet drones are still a problem.
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Ukrainian Tochka-U Missile
Footage shows a Ukrainian Tochka-U missile, a large Soviet-era tactical ballistic missile system, stopping general traffic on a road on a foggy day. Ukraine was thought to have run out of these earlier in the war but evidently still has some. Previous footage has shown the damage they can do to Russian targets.
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Overnight Drone and Missile Attacks
- Russia launched 35 Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 attack drones from Bryansk/Belgorod against Kyiv overnight. All 35 were shot down but still caused damage:
- 5 people injured
- Apartment block, dozen cars, 15 trucks and a gas pipe damaged by falling debris
- A Russian Kh-22 missile hit a food warehouse in Odesa, causing a massive fire
- Russian Tu-22M3 bombers launched 8 missiles from Crimea towards Odesa. Some didn't reach their targets.
- Lots of footage of air defenses engaging drones over Kyiv. Debris still has to land somewhere even if shot down.
- Less clear what damage occurred in Odesa. Ukraine keeps operational security around Russian successes. Most missiles likely hit their targets.
Fires in Russia
- Railway relay box lit on fire near Moscow, similar to previous incidents 1-2 months ago
- Massive fire at construction site of Nove Ochecove residential complex in Moscow
- Catastrophic wildfires ongoing in Sverdlovsk and neighboring Kurgan oblasts
- Apocalyptic scenes of entire villages and 20+ houses burning
- Fire services were heavily reliant on conscripts who are now fighting in the war
Prisoner Exchange
Before and after photos are shown of Yevhen Chudnetsov, a Ukrainian POW released from Russian captivity for the second time, having also been captured in 2015. He claims his teeth were knocked out during captivity and the physical transformation is stark.
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Military Aid
- Turkey refused a U.S. request to transfer their Russian-made S-400 air defense systems to Ukraine and denied the U.S. access to study them
- Ukraine began receiving radars from Israel for a new missile threat warning system
- Israeli company Elta Systems producing 16 radars funded by Lithuania
- Capable of detecting small targets and operating in active electronic warfare environments
- Negotiations ongoing between Ukraine and Germany for Fuchs armored personnel carriers
- Czech Republic providing Ukraine with the Tatra T815-7T3RC1 8x8 "Mammoth" armored recovery vehicle
- 38 tons, equipped with cranes and winches to recover stuck or damaged vehicles up to 57 tons
- Can tow artillery and carry out field repairs
- Level 2B armored cabin for crew protection
- Footage of Ukrainians training to cross rivers with amphibious vehicles and pontoon bridges
- Vehicles can carry other light vehicles like Humvees
- Could be significant for crossing the Dnipro River in a future counteroffensive
- Russian Tornado-G MLRS seen with roof screens for protection against loitering munitions
- Similar to cope cages on tanks but may be more effective
- Every vehicle needs protection as drones could attack from the side, not just top-down
- A U.S.-provided Switchblade 600 anti-armor kamikaze drone was reportedly caught in a net and stopped from hitting a Russian Osa air defense system, demonstrating the importance of loitering munition protection
Geopolitics
- Leaked documents reveal Russian intelligence arranged fake protests in Europe inspired by Quran burnings to provoke Turkish President Erdogan and sow division between Turkey and the EU to hinder NATO expansion
- Fake Ukrainian Nazi protests against Erdogan and stomping on Turkish flags held in Paris, Brussels and The Hague
- Content spread on social media by individuals linked to Russian state media and intelligence in St. Petersburg
- Fake demonstrators infiltrated legitimate protests to make their cause seem bigger
- At least 10 anti-Ukrainian demonstrations in Europe now linked to this Russian operation
- Transnistria, the Russian-controlled breakaway region of Moldova bordering Ukraine, requested Russia increase its peacekeepers citing growing security risks
- Anti-EU and anti-Moldovan government protests in Moldova directly orchestrated by the Kremlin using Russians bussed in to participate
Wrap up
Jonathan signs off asking viewers to like, subscribe and share. He appreciates the time spent on his channel. A frontline update video will be coming out a bit later in the morning.
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