Ukraine War Upd. EXTRA: Missile Cost vs Range, On Helping Ukr, & Ukr Success Criteria
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"You can't rationally argue someone out of a position they never rationally argued themselves into."
Hello Team!
Jonathan introduces the video, an Ukraine War Update Extra providing additional insight and analysis on the war in Ukraine. He has a lot to cover in this video.
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Trade-off between high-cost and low-cost military equipment
- As the war extends beyond 1.5 years, cost efficiency of military equipment becomes more important
- Example: A Russian logistical facility in Zaporizhzhia oblast that repairs armoured vehicles
- Dilemma: target is too small for costly cruise missiles but too significant to ignore
- Potential solutions: long-range loitering munitions and GLSDB (ground-launched small diameter bombs)
- GLSDB and loitering munitions expected to be pivotal in 2024
Countering arguments against supporting Ukraine
Jonathan shares a comment from viewer Brian Ivey outlining common arguments against supporting Ukraine:
- Ukraine will always have corruption due to Soviet past
- Democracy has no place in Ukrainian tradition
- Modern military equipment supplied will end up with a future Ukrainian tyrant
Jonathan systematically counters each point:
- Countries/institutions can change and overcome corruption over time with effort
- Traditions are not fixed; democracy can become a tradition if practiced
- Assuming a future Ukrainian tyrant is fatalistic; Ukraine is on a democratic path
He notes it's difficult to change minds on such entrenched beliefs, requiring gradual efforts and techniques like Socratic questioning.
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20-year-old from Luhansk fighting for Ukraine
Jonathan shares the inspiring story of a 20-year-old from Luhansk who lived under Russian occupation from ages 11-19. Despite constant Russian propaganda, he left for Kharkiv in February 2022 and joined the Ukrainian territorial defence. He is now a platoon commander fighting against Russians near Bakhmut, even with his father still in Luhansk and relatives fighting for Russia. This gives hope that those in occupied territories can resist brainwashing.
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Update from Kenneth Gregg, Finnish fighter in Ukraine
Kenneth Gregg provides an optimistic update, noting several Ukrainian successes:
- Ukrainian Neptune missiles proved effective in sinking the Moskva cruiser and destroying a key radar of the S-400 air defence system in Crimea
- The Maiak landing by Ukrainian special forces had propaganda value and achieved a special mission, catching the Russians off guard
- Russians lack resources to monitor large areas as they've moved forces to the front lines
- Drone warfare is becoming increasingly important; ally support in loitering munition production could be mutually beneficial
Trent Telenko's 8-point checklist for Ukrainian counter-offensive success
Military analyst Trent Telenko previously outlined 8 things Ukraine needed to do for a successful counter-offensive. He now believes Ukraine has achieved all 8 based on open-source reports:
- Kill Russian artillery
- Systematically kill Russian EW jammers
- Kill Russian SAM systems like S-400 and S-300
- Systematic attacks on fuel/ammo depots in occupied Ukraine and Russia
- Make southern Ukraine a logistical desert
- Conduct info war campaign causing Russian fear, uncertainty and doubt
- Deploy Ukrainian combat engineering equipment like mine-clearing vehicles
- Prompt Russian complaints of Ukrainian drone swarms
Telenko says the coming weeks will show if the reports are reliable and if it was a good checklist. Jonathan believes it's a useful list and things are looking promising for Ukraine, with the usual caveats.
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Rebutting Vivek Ramaswamy's arguments on Russia and Ukraine
Jonathan critiques the arguments of U.S. presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who suggests "reopening economic relations with Russia, freezing current lines of control, and committing to not admitting Ukraine to NATO." In an interview with Brian Kilmeade on Fox News, Ramaswamy says "we can go the other direction" and use the Ukraine war to "bring apart" the Russia-China alliance, which he calls the greatest threat to the U.S. Kilmeade and Jonathan strongly object to letting Russia keep 20% of Ukraine, with Kilmeade saying "They took it. They just took it." Jonathan compares it to ignoring someone being mugged and beaten because you found £5 on the ground. He notes such arguments are appearing on U.S. television but fortunately the UK has strong bipartisan support for Ukraine. However, Russian-backed politicians like Marine Le Pen in France may echo these talking points. Jonathan stresses the importance of knowing how to counter these "really bad geopolitical arguments."
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Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for their brilliant support and says he will be back with more to say tomorrow.
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