Ukr War Update NEWS: Military Aid News - EU Package Changed, US Companiew Denied
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Table of Contents 📖
"The USA under the Trump administration is obviously considered too unreliable, unpredictable and not trustworthy for future defence expenditures."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:32⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another Ukraine War News Update, the second for 20th March 2025. He reminds viewers that he has a chat with Malcolm Nance planned, a former intelligence officer who served with both the Ukrainian and US Armed Forces, and is looking forward to it.
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EU Withdraws €40 Billion Arms Package for Ukraine
🎦 00:32-01:03⏩
Jonathan announces that the €40 billion arms package for Ukraine from the EU is being withdrawn. The EU High Representative for External Relations, Kaja Kallas, attributes the resistance to the package to southern EU countries, namely Spain and Italy. Hungary, Italy, France, Spain and Portugal all opposed the initial €40 billion military aid plan.
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EU Military Aid for Ukraine
🎦 01:03-02:01⏩
- Only €5 billion of the original €40 billion package remains.
- Von der Leyen is pursuing the REARM Europe Defense Initiative.
- Other initiatives include a $150 billion loan facility and the potential to borrow up to $650 billion, totaling €800 billion.
- Despite the setback with the €40 billion package, the EU might aim for a more realistic goal of providing Ukraine with €5 billion worth of ammunition.
- Kaja Kallas is actively working towards this objective.
- Jonathan expresses his disappointment, calling the situation "a real shame" and "frustrating."
Jonathan's Musings on the EU
🎦 02:01-02:23⏩
Jonathan reflects on the challenges faced by the EU, attributing them to the requirement for unanimous voting among its diverse member states, particularly when it comes to approving substantial monetary packages.
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EU Gives Ukraine €1 Billion in Aid
🎦 02:23-02:49⏩
The EU has dispersed €1 billion in macro-financial assistance to Ukraine, to be repaid using proceeds from frozen Russian assets.
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New Batch of F-16s Arrive in Ukraine
🎦 02:49-03:32⏩
- Zelensky has announced the arrival of more F-16s to Ukraine. The exact number remains undisclosed.
- Zelensky refutes Russian claims of shooting down an F-16, stating, "The Russians are lying that they shot down something there". Jonathan supports this, highlighting that Russian sources have backtracked on their initial claims.
- Jonathan speculates that the new batch might consist of two or three F-16s, potentially more.
US to Assist Ukraine in Finding Air Defense Systems
🎦 03:33-04:30⏩
- The US is exploring available options to fulfill Ukraine's request for additional air defense systems.
- Following a "positive" phone call between Zelensky and Trump, White House spokesperson Caroline Leavitt, in a press briefing, reveals Zelensky specifically requested Patriot missile systems.
- Trump has pledged to work with Zelensky to identify available resources, emphasizing sourcing from Europe.
- Jonathan notes this approach aligns with Trump's tendency to pressure other nations to provide aid rather than direct US involvement.
- While additional air defense systems might be provided, Jonathan believes this hinges on European, not American, contributions.
UK to Host Meeting on Ukraine Peacekeeping Forces
🎦 04:30-05:28⏩
- The UK will host a closed meeting with military officials from over 20 nations to discuss peacekeeping efforts in Ukraine, despite Putin’s opposition. The exact date of the meeting remains unconfirmed.
- Jonathan commends the proactive stance taken by European nations, particularly the UK, in organizing this meeting. He views it as a positive step towards concrete action, moving beyond mere discussions.
British Special Forces on Standby for Ukraine Peacekeeping Mission
🎦 05:29-06:12⏩
- British Special Forces, including the SAS, are on standby for deployment to Ukraine as part of a UK-led peacekeeping mission.
- Jonathan acknowledges that the presence of special forces in Ukraine, particularly the SAS, is not new and likely dates back to before the war's outbreak.
- He suggests that special forces from various countries, including the US, are already assisting Ukraine.
US Arms Manufacturers Excluded from EU Defence Fund
🎦 06:12-07:58⏩
- Shashank Joshi reveals that arms companies from the US, UK, and Turkey will be excluded from the EU's €150 billion defense funding initiative unless they have defense and security pacts with Brussels.
- The EU is prioritizing European countries and allied nations like Norway and Ukraine for defense procurement, as per their previously announced defense strategy.
- The exclusion extends to the US, a significant shift considering that, historically, two-thirds of European defense investments went to the US.
- Jonathan attributes this change to the perceived unreliability and unpredictability of the US under the Trump administration.
Potential UK-EU Defence Deal & Impact
🎦 07:58-09:32⏩
- The UK is considering a security deal with the EU. Jonathan believes such an agreement is crucial for the UK’s economic growth and a way to circumvent the exclusion from the EU's defence fund.
- Jonathan believes the UK is facing a financial precipice, which led to diverting funds from foreign aid to defense spending.
- The UK's defense spending is projected to increase significantly in the coming years, requiring substantial financial resources, potentially attainable through closer ties with the EU.
- Jonathan highlights the importance of trade with the EU for the UK's economic recovery.
- A defense agreement with the EU could provide UK manufacturers, like BAE Systems, access to the €150 billion defense fund, offering significant economic opportunities.
Poland & UK to Explore Joint Defence Spending
🎦 09:32-10:32⏩
- Poland and the UK are set to explore joint defense spending initiatives to bolster military production and efficiency in response to heightened security concerns in Europe.
- The Financial Times also reports that the UK is at the forefront of supporting Ukraine through a coalition of defense planners.
- Jonathan observes the UK's increasingly central role in European affairs, a strategic move he attributes to UK Labour Party leader Keir Starmer, who recognizes the potential benefits of closer UK-EU collaboration.
Canada in Talks to Join EU's Military Industry Project
🎦 10:32-11:15⏩
- Canada is engaged in advanced discussions with the EU to participate in a project to bolster the bloc's military industry.
- If successful, this would allow Canada to contribute to building European fighter jets and other equipment within its borders.
- Jonathan links this to Canada’s potential shift away from the F-35 program, opting for a more diversified portfolio, potentially including Gripens and Eurofighters, addressing concerns regarding US control over F-35 technology and maintenance.
Canada & Australia Radar Cooperation
🎦 11:15-12:26⏩
- Canada will cooperate with Australia on advanced radar technology, specifically over-the-horizon radar capable of detecting ballistic missiles and other threats.
- This technology was initially intended for the US, but Canada secured the deal.
- Jonathan speculates whether Canada's acquisition might be connected to Trump’s economic policies, suggesting a potential trend of US allies seeking alternative partnerships due to concerns over US reliability.
Deterioration of Trust in US Military Hardware and Influence
🎦 12:26-13:56⏩
- Jonathan observes that recent events point towards a decline in the perception of US reliability and trustworthiness, particularly concerning national security and defense commitments.
- He highlights Danish MP Rasmus Jarlov’s statement expressing regret over Denmark’s purchase of US military hardware, specifically the F-35, due to concerns over potential US control and restrictions.
- Jonathan notes that Lockheed Martin, the F-35's manufacturer, issued a statement denying the existence of a “kill switch” in the aircraft, indicating the extent to which trust in US military hardware has eroded.
Danish MP Advocates Against Purchasing US Weapons
🎦 13:56-14:42⏩
- Jonathan delves deeper into Danish MP Rasmus Jarlov's stance, who argues that relying on American weaponry poses a security risk for Denmark, given the perceived unpredictability of the US under the Trump administration.
- Jarlov expresses concern that the US might exploit its position to pressure Denmark into making concessions, citing a hypothetical scenario involving Greenland.
- Jarlov advocates for Denmark and its allies to reduce reliance on American weapons, urging significant investments in alternative defense systems.
Trump Administration's Actions and their Global Impact
🎦 14:42-15:39⏩
- Jonathan links Jarlov's statement to the broader trend of US allies seeking alternative defense partners.
- Jonathan believes the shift away from US military hardware represents a direct consequence of Trump’s policies, speculating that these decisions wouldn't have occurred under different circumstances.
- He points out that these developments are unprecedented and reflect a significant shift in global defense dynamics, primarily due to the perceived instability and unreliability of the US under the Trump administration.
France Overtakes Russia as Second-Largest Arms Exporter
🎦 15:40-16:38⏩
- Jonathan highlights the rise of France as an arms exporter, surpassing Russia to become the second largest globally, trailing only the US.
- Jonathan attributes France's success to the changing global landscape and the declining reliability of both the US and Russia as arms suppliers, noting that Russia's share of the arms market continues to shrink.
- He acknowledges the technological prowess of the F-35 but argues that factors like cost, stealth capabilities, and political considerations are leading countries to explore alternative options.
Trump Administration's Actions Draw Criticism from Republicans
🎦 16:38-18:03⏩
- Jonathan notes that the Trump administration is not only impacting the US military industrial base but also enacting substantial internal restructuring within the Department of Defense, such as removing generals, admirals, and potentially replacing General Cavoli, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
- He highlights a joint statement issued by Republican chairs of the Senate and House Armed Services Committees criticizing the proposed restructuring of combatant commands.
- The statement argues that these changes could jeopardize American deterrence globally and weaken the US's negotiating position with adversaries.
Jonathan Criticizes Unilateral Decision-Making
🎦 18:03-19:40⏩
- Jonathan criticizes the lack of transparency and consultation in the Trump administration’s decision-making process, asserting that changes to the military structure should involve experts, Congress, and a rigorous interagency process.
- He argues against unilateral decisions without formal rationale or justification.
- Jonathan emphasizes the need for checks and balances in government, particularly when it comes to matters of national security and military strategy. He sees the Trump administration’s actions as eroding democratic norms and processes.
Jonathan's Concerns over US's Global Standing
🎦 19:40-20:46⏩
- Jonathan questions whether the pushback from prominent Republicans indicates a shift in sentiment towards the Trump administration’s handling of national security.
- He expresses concern that the US risks losing significant contracts and global influence due to these actions, highlighting the potential for the US to become more isolated on the world stage.
- Jonathan argues that withdrawing from global engagement will limit the US's ability to influence international events. He sees a disconnect between the Trump administration's perceived isolationist tendencies and its complaints about global affairs.
Trump Administration's Actions and the Erosion of Democracy
🎦 20:48-21:03⏩
- Jonathan expresses concern that the unilateral actions of the Trump administration are symptomatic of an authoritarian trend, eroding democratic processes and potentially damaging the US’s standing on the world stage.
- He believes these decisions should be subject to scrutiny and discussion, not imposed unilaterally.
Wrap up
🎦 21:03-21:34⏩
- Jonathan concludes the video by thanking viewers and reminding them about the NATO fundraising campaign he is running with Rick the Ukrainian and Roman Trokomets.
- He expresses gratitude for the generous donations received, aiming to reach their target.
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