Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"What are they actually trying to do? What are the commanders on the ground trying to achieve at the moment and do they have the forces to to keep this pressure up for for a long time?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:28⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another edition of ATP Geopolitics and introduces the Ukraine War Frontline Update for 15th December 2023. It's Music Lyric Friday!
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Svatove-Kreminna Front
🎦 00:28-02:20⏩
Jonathan begins with the Svatove-Kreminna Front. Citing Andrew Perpetua's maps, he notes Russian gains north of Sinkivka, applying pressure on Kupiansk, a significant Ukrainian hub. Jonathan emphasizes the strategic importance of the river in this area, suggesting that Ukrainian defenses might be willing to concede territory up to the river, but anything beyond that would be problematic. The higher ground beyond the river is advantageous for Ukrainian forces. Jonathan observes that Russian forces have made gradual gains in this area over the past week. The ISW (Institute for the Study of War) provides no specific updates for the northeastern axis, indicating ongoing activity but no confirmed territorial changes.
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Russian Advance Near Rostivka
🎦 02:20-02:33⏩
Shifting focus slightly north, Jonathan cites pro-Russian mapper Suriat Maps, which reports Russian gains in the area of Rostovka-Livka. According to Suriat Maps, the Russian army advanced towards Roslivka, capturing a Ukrainian trench system established in recent months.
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Bakhmut: Soledar Direction
🎦 02:33-03:05⏩
Turning to the Bakhmut sector, Jonathan discusses the situation around Soledar, referencing pro-Russian source Rebar. Rebar claims ongoing Russian offensive operations in the Soledar direction, with their main efforts concentrated on breaching Ukrainian defenses near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces are reportedly pushing through Dubovo-Vasylivka, Bodonivka, and Heroivka, attempting to advance towards Chasiv Yar and overcome fortified Ukrainian positions.
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Bakhmut: South of Soledar
🎦 03:05-04:10⏩
Jonathan analyzes the area southwest of Soledar, particularly the region across the road from the settlement. He notes the strategic importance of Dubovo-Vasylivka, Bodonivka, and Heroivka in the Russian push towards Chasiv Yar. Rebar's reports suggest that Russian forces are advancing along the Chasiv Yar highway from the direction of Klimovo, claiming control of the Bakhmut car racing track. Jonathan acknowledges this as a significant gain if true, as it would provide a buffer zone for the northwestern part of Bakhmut.
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Bakhmut: West of City
🎦 04:10-05:05⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to the area west of Bakhmut, where Ukrainian forces had previously maintained visual control from elevated positions. Rebar asserts that Russian troops are now in control of most of this high ground, challenging previous Ukrainian dominance. He highlights Rebar's claims of the "Kamerton" unit, composed of ex-Wagner fighters, clearing the western outskirts of Bakhmut's residential area towards Ivanivske. Jonathan acknowledges Russian territorial gains in this area, but underscores the likelihood of heavy casualties based on available drone footage, characteristic of Wagner's tactics.
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Bakhmut: Klishchivka
🎦 05:05-06:59⏩
Jonathan focuses on the situation in Klishchivka, west of Bakhmut, where Rebar claims Russian control of Hill 215.7. According to Rebar, this strategically important position allows Russian forces to control Ukrainian supply routes and approaches to Klishchivka. Jonathan points out the strategic significance of the trench network in this area, suggesting that while pro-Russian sources assert Russian control, there are discrepancies between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian maps regarding the actual situation. He acknowledges that Russian sources present a more optimistic view of the situation, while cautioning that their claims should be treated with a degree of skepticism. Jonathan concludes that while there is no mention of substantial Russian gains from the ISW in Bakhmut, pro-Russian sources suggest steady progress.
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Bakhmut: Bodonivka Area
🎦 06:59-07:38⏩
Continuing the discussion on Bakhmut, Jonathan turns to the Bodonivka area, along the bend in the road. Drawing on Suriat Maps, he notes that Russian forces are advancing along the railway line east of Bodonivka, gaining control of trenches adjacent to the road leading to Chasiv Yar. While the dirt track remains contested in the grey zone, Suriat Maps highlights Russian progress in the region. Jonathan points out that Suriat Maps aligns with Deep State Maps in suggesting that the main trench system around Klishchivka is not yet under Russian control. He observes ongoing discrepancies between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian sources regarding this specific area.
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Avdiivka: Slag Heaps
🎦 08:28-09:23⏩
Jonathan moves south to the Avdiivka area, specifically the slag heaps, or spoil tips, near Pivdenne and Hola Prystan. He reports that Suriat Maps indicates Russian forces have retaken control of the tallest slag heap in the area. However, he notes that this claim originates from a pro-Russian source and awaits further confirmation, acknowledging that Ukrainian forces had raised their flag there just a week prior.
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Avdiivka: Stepova
🎦 09:23-10:28⏩
Jonathan continues with Avdiivka, highlighting Andrew Perpetua's mapping, which shows Russian forces pushing along the railway line north from Stepova towards Nova Bakhmutivka. He emphasizes the distinction between this Nova Bakhmutivka and another location with the same name. Jonathan observes that Suriat Maps aligns with this assessment, indicating Russian gains in the same area, as well as south of Stepova. He takes a moment to thank JL for their mapping contributions, acknowledging their valuable work.
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Avdiivka: Heavy Fighting
🎦 10:28-11:13⏩
Jonathan elaborates on the situation in Avdiivka, referencing the ISW report, which suggests intense Russian assaults in the area between Stepova and the railway line. Jonathan points out that the ISW cites reports from a Ukrainian brigade spokesperson, indicating substantial Russian losses and difficulties in recovering the bodies of their dead in this region. He further corroborates these claims with evidence from various sources, including Russian reports, confirming the ferocity of the fighting.
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Avdiivka: Kolesova Street
🎦 11:13-11:37⏩
Still on Avdiivka, Jonathan examines the conflicting claims surrounding the southeastern outskirts of the city. He notes that Russian milbloggers have asserted a Russian foothold in this area, specifically along Kolesova Street. However, the ISW reports no visual confirmation of these claims, leading to discrepancies between different sources. Jonathan compares Suriat Maps, which depicts Russian control over the southern part of Kolesova Street, with the ISW's assessment, which contradicts this. He advises caution when interpreting these contrasting reports, recommending a more conservative approach until further verification. He reiterates his trust in Andrew Perpetua's mapping due to its more conservative and evidence-based approach.
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Avdiivka: North of Stepova
🎦 11:37-12:20⏩
Jonathan delves further into the discrepancies surrounding Avdiivka, focusing on the area north of Stepova. He contrasts Suriat Maps' assertion of a Russian advance northward along the railway line, claiming control of Stepova's flanks and a significant portion of the village itself, with No Reports' more limited assessment. No Reports acknowledges slight Russian advances along the railway tracks towards Ocheretyne, north of Stepova, but also mentions a repelled Russian mechanized attack near Stepova. They further claim substantial Russian losses in BMPs (infantry fighting vehicles) and MTLBs (multi-purpose tracked armored personnel carriers). Jonathan emphasizes the persistent reports of significant Russian mechanized equipment losses in the Avdiivka region.
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Donetsk Oblast: Novomykolaivka - Pisky
🎦 12:20-13:09⏩
Moving south past Pervomaiske towards Novomykhailivka, Jonathan observes a recent uptick in activity in this previously quiet sector. While not widely reported, both Deep State Maps and Suriat Maps suggest a degree of Russian advance in the area between Novomykhailivka and Pisky. Jonathan emphasizes the strategic importance of Novomykhailivka in maintaining pressure on Pervomaiske, which itself is crucial for preventing the encirclement of Avdiivka. He underscores the interconnected nature of these locations and the cascading effects of territorial gains or losses.
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Donetsk Oblast: Marinka - Pobeda
🎦 13:09-15:50⏩
Jonathan analyzes the situation in Marinka and Novomykolaivka, noting significant activity in both locations. He begins with Marinka, highlighting Russian sources that identify Pobeda as the next target for Russian advances. He explains the strategic importance of Pobeda, a seemingly insignificant agricultural community, as its fall would lead to the encirclement and likely capture of Marinka. Furthermore, controlling Pobeda would grant Russian forces control over a crucial road, threatening Kostyantynivka and, in turn, Vuhledar. This would significantly hinder Ukrainian long-range artillery strikes on Russian positions in Mariupol. Jonathan emphasizes the high stakes involved in controlling this road, as it enables Ukrainian forces to utilize HIMARS with an 84km range to target Mariupol. He observes that while Suriat Maps initially showed significant Russian gains in Pobeda, they have since retracted some of these claims, acknowledging a slower advance. Both Suriat Maps and Andrew Perpetua's maps concur on Russian progress east and northeast of Pobeda.
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Donetsk Oblast: Novomykolaivka
🎦 16:04-18:18⏩
Jonathan transitions to Novomykolaivka, highlighting its strategic importance as a buffer zone for Kostyantynivka and the crucial road leading to Vuhledar. He notes that Andrew Perpetua considers Novomykolaivka a primary target for Russian forces, emphasizing its significance despite the attention given to Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Securing Novomykolaivka would allow Russia to establish a more favorable frontline and enhance the protection of Mariupol from Ukrainian artillery. Jonathan compares different sources, observing that Suriat Maps indicates Russian gains east and northeast of Novomykolaivka, while No Reports acknowledges discrepancies in their previous assessments, confirming Russian advances in the area. He highlights the consensus between Suriat Maps and Andrew Perpetua's mapping, suggesting a degree of accuracy in Suriat Maps' reporting, despite its pro-Russian bias.
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Russian Intentions and Capabilities
🎦 18:18-19:25⏩
Jonathan pauses to consider the broader strategic context of the Russian offensive, questioning their end goals and capabilities. He acknowledges the often-repeated rhetoric of "demilitarization" and "denazification," along with ambitions for a land bridge to Odessa and Transnistria, but questions their feasibility. He ponders the immediate objectives of Russian commanders on the ground and whether they possess the resources to sustain this level of pressure on multiple fronts. He expresses skepticism about Russia's capacity to achieve large-scale territorial gains, particularly given the time and resources required to capture Bakhmut. Jonathan invites viewers to share their perspectives on Russia's strategic intentions and the sustainability of their offensive operations.
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Zaporizhzhia Front: Novodarivka - Robotyne
🎦 19:25-20:26⏩
Jonathan shifts attention to the southern front, noting a relative lack of information regarding the Zaporizhzhia direction. He cites limited reporting from the ISW, which mentions marginal Russian advances on the eastern outskirts of Novodarivka based on geolocated footage. He also acknowledges claims from Russian milbloggers about significant advances by units from Russia's Southern Military District near Robotyne, including claims of pushing Ukrainian forces out of tactical positions. However, Jonathan points out that the ISW has not been able to verify these claims.
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Zaporizhzhia Front: Huliaipole
🎦 20:26-20:36⏩
Jonathan briefly touches on Huliaipole, acknowledging the lack of detailed information from the ISW. He assumes that the situation in Huliaipole is far from quiet despite the limited reporting, suggesting ongoing military activity.
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The Bigger Picture
🎦 20:36-21:14⏩
Jonathan concludes his analysis by highlighting the overall intensity of the conflict, stating that fighting continues relentlessly across the entire frontline. He acknowledges the shift in momentum, with Russian forces applying significant pressure in multiple sectors. He questions whether this pressure is a prelude to a larger counteroffensive or part of a strategy to bolster defenses against a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring. He ponders Ukraine's own plans for the winter months and the potential trajectory of the conflict.
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Questions and Closing Remarks
🎦 21:14-21:50⏩
Jonathan concludes the update by posing several questions to his viewers:
- What are Russia's strategic goals, particularly in the east?
- Will they attempt a major push towards Svatove?
- What is the situation in Avdiivka, and will Russian pressure continue there?
- Given the challenges in capturing Bakhmut, will Russia seriously attempt to take Chasiv Yar?
- What are their objectives in the southern regions around Novomykolaivka and Marinka?
He encourages viewers to share their insights and opinions in the comments section. Jonathan thanks his audience for watching and asks them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He mentions an upcoming "Update Extra" video where he'll delve deeper into these topics.
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