Ukraine War Update NEWS: Geopolitical News - Denmark, Canada, Greenland, Witkoff
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to ATP Geopolitics for a Ukraine War News Update, part three, for 24th March 2025.
- He indicates there is a lot of geopolitical news to cover in this update.
Massive protests in Turkey following imprisonment of opposition leader
🎦 00:09-01:05⏩
- Jonathan reports on massive ongoing protests in Turkey, triggered by the imprisonment of Erdogan's main opposition leader, the former mayor of Istanbul.
- Over 1,100 people, including media members, have been arrested, and police are using water cannons.
- Protests have spread beyond Istanbul to other parts of the country, suggesting a critical point may have been reached.
- The imprisoned opposition leader has been made the candidate for the opposition, further fueling the outcry.
Turkey's Geopolitical Importance
🎦 01:05-01:38⏩
- Jonathan emphasises Turkey's significant geopolitical importance due to its location at the crossroads of North-South and East-West.
- Turkey bridges Christianity and Islam, the Middle East and Asia, and Europe and the Mediterranean.
- It controls the Bosphorus Straits and the Black Sea, and has aspirations to join the EU.
- Turkey's multifaceted nature, including its secular constitution, Islamic population, young people, and status as a holiday destination, contributes to its complexity and importance.
Turkey's Potential Role in Ukraine Peacekeeping Force
🎦 01:38-02:16⏩
- Jonathan highlights Turkey's sizable armed forces and suggests they are likely to be involved in any peacekeeping force deployed in Ukraine.
- He reiterates the need to monitor the situation in Turkey due to its strategic importance.
Austria uncovers Russian disinformation campaign
🎦 02:16-03:14⏩
- ABC News reports Austria has uncovered a Russian-steered disinformation campaign.
- Following the detention of a Bulgarian woman accused of spying for Russia in December, Austrian authorities found evidence of a large-scale disinformation operation targeting German-speaking countries, particularly Austria.
- The campaign, active since shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, involved online activities, stickers, and graffiti designed to look like pro-Ukrainian activists were responsible, including far-right symbols and nationalist statements, aiming to sow division.
- Jonathan notes that information warfare is being fought in tangible ways, not just online.
Bulgarians Accused of Spray Painting Star of David in Paris
🎦 03:14-03:39⏩
- Jonathan references a past incident in France where Bulgarians were accused of spray-painting Stars of David and other signs around Paris to create division during periods of social unrest.
- This illustrates the tangible ways in which information warfare is conducted.
Hungarian Polls Show Support for EU Increasing Despite Orban's Agenda
🎦 03:39-04:10⏩
- Jonathan reports on the latest polls from Hungary which indicate that Viktor Orban's agenda of pushing Hungary towards "Huxit" (Hungary exiting the EU) is faltering.
- Public support for the EU in Hungary has increased from 76% to 79%, contrary to Orban's aims.
- This is unwelcome news for Viktor Orban.
Claims of Putin Promising Orban Part of Zakarpattia in Exchange for Support
🎦 04:10-04:23⏩
- Stratcon Center reports that facing declining poll numbers, Viktor Orban's regime is resorting to tactics similar to Russia.
- Long-standing rumours suggest Putin promised Orban a portion of Ukraine's Zakarpattia region in return for Hungary's support during the invasion.
- This claim is becoming more plausible as Orban escalates rhetoric about the supposed oppression of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine, using it as a pretext to block Ukraine's EU accession.
Hungary Using Minority Issues to Obstruct Ukraine's EU Accession
🎦 04:23-05:07⏩
- Jonathan reiterates previous discussions about Hungary potentially blocking Ukraine's EU membership until its Hungarian-speaking minority receives greater protection in Ukraine.
- Budapest has a history of using minority issues to hinder Ukraine's European path, and its actions often align with Moscow's interests.
Kyiv Calls for New EU Mechanism to Prevent Individual Vetoes
🎦 05:07-05:25⏩
- Kyiv is advocating for a new EU mechanism to prevent individual member states from vetoing crucial decisions.
- There are reports that Hungary has been "sidelined" and can no longer unilaterally veto or obstruct EU matters.
- Jonathan is unsure of the specific policy changes but will investigate further.
Sweden and Nordic-Baltic Countries Urge EU to Advance Ukraine's Accession
🎦 05:25-05:54⏩
- Sweden and other Nordic-Baltic countries are urging the EU to move forward with Ukraine's EU accession, stating that Ukraine has earned its place at the table.
- Jonathan will continue to monitor this situation.
UK's Vulnerable Position Outside the EU in Trade
🎦 05:54-06:20⏩
- Jonathan explains the UK's predicament outside the EU, placing it in a vulnerable position between the US and the EU, especially in trade matters.
- Being outside the EU trade bloc, the UK lacks protection in trade wars and is unable to effectively counter US trade tariffs.
US Tariffs and Pressure on UK Digital Services Tax
🎦 06:20-07:13⏩
- The US has imposed tariffs on the UK, which the UK has had to absorb due to its weaker trade position compared to the US.
- The US is threatening further tariffs if the UK does not reduce its digital services tax, indicating lobbying from US tech companies like Meta and Amazon.
- This pressure aims to reduce taxes and potentially regulations on US tech firms operating in the UK.
UK Considers Cutting Digital Services Tax to Avoid Trump Tariffs
🎦 07:13-07:32⏩
- The UK is contemplating cutting its digital services tax to avoid further tariffs from the US under a potential Trump administration.
- This poses a significant problem for the UK as it desperately needs tax revenue due to its precarious financial situation.
- The UK is facing a difficult choice between being "hammered" by tariffs or reducing taxes and worsening its budget deficit.
UK's Financial Vulnerability and Political Ramifications
🎦 07:32-07:52⏩
- The UK is in a financially vulnerable state, with some estimates suggesting a £22 billion shortfall in the treasury.
- This financial strain will likely impact the Labour government, potentially forcing them to implement austerity measures, which could be unpopular with the electorate.
- Labour's options for raising taxes are limited due to prior commitments not to increase taxes.
Political Opportunism in UK due to Financial Situation
🎦 07:52-08:14⏩
- The Conservative party, now in opposition, can criticise the Labour government's handling of the economy.
- The Reform party is also expected to capitalise on the financial difficulties and public dissatisfaction.
- This leaves the UK, and particularly the Labour government, in a politically and economically vulnerable position.
Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey's Positioning Against Trump
🎦 08:14-08:21⏩
- Ed Davey, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, is positioning himself and his party to stand up to Trump.
- Jonathan finds this political positioning fascinating.
Lib Dems Advocate Standing with EU and Canada Against Trump's Trade War
🎦 08:21-09:24⏩
- Ed Davey is advocating for closer alignment with the EU and Canada to counter potential trade wars initiated by Trump.
- He urges the UK Prime Minister to convene leaders from the EU and Canada to agree on a coordinated response to Trump's trade policies, similar to the unified response to Putin's war.
- The Lib Dems are projecting a strong stance against Russia, terrorism, and what they perceive as Trump's bullying and aggressive positioning.
Lib Dems Potentially Formulating Policy Around Rejoining EU
🎦 09:24-11:26⏩
- Jonathan suggests that the Lib Dems may be developing a policy platform that more explicitly advocates for rejoining the EU, possibly more formally than in previous elections.
- This positioning is based on the idea that Trump and the US are a threat, and the UK needs to align more closely with Europe.
- This is a significant potential shift in Lib Dem policy.
Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski's Diplomatic Jab at Elon Musk
🎦 11:26-12:31⏩
- Jonathan discusses the online spat between Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski and Elon Musk over Starlink provision to Ukraine.
- Sikorski responded diplomatically to a question about making up with Musk, saying, "Elon Musk is a great pioneer, and I wish him success on his way to Mars."
- Jonathan finds Sikorski's response brilliantly diplomatic and humorous, interpreting it as a polite dismissal.
Russian Perspective on the War and Enemies
🎦 12:31-14:26⏩
- Jonathan presents a video clip of an elderly Russian woman expressing views representative of some Russians sympathetic to Putin's regime.
- The woman states that Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic states are Russia's enemies and are full of "Nazis".
- She believes military campaigns are necessary against these countries and negotiations are ineffective.
- She suggests that Nazis were "missed" after the Great Patriotic War and need to be eliminated now.
- Jonathan highlights this as potentially representative of a segment of Russian public opinion that supports aggressive action against neighbouring countries.
Alignment Between American and Russian Right-Wing Ideologies
🎦 14:26-15:28⏩
- Jonathan discusses an article from The Economist highlighting the alignment between parts of the American and Russian right-wing political spectrum.
- Figures like Glenn Greenwald, Tucker Carlson, and Alexander Dugin, a Russian ultra-nationalist philosopher, are mentioned in this context.
- The American and Russian rights are seen as finding common ground, with arguments from figures like C. Bannon suggesting that the US and Russia are both essentially Christian and nationalist.
- This alignment is described as a serious philosophical concordance emerging between these groups.
Putin's Exploitation of Christian Nationalist Sentiments in the US
🎦 15:28-16:24⏩
- Jonathan explains how Putin has strategically used the Christian nationalist right in the US for his advantage.
- Putin presents Russia as a bastion of "Christian traditional family values," appealing to conservative elements within the American Republican party and MAGA movement.
- However, Jonathan points out the hypocrisy, noting that church attendance in Russia is significantly lower than in Ukraine and the US, undermining Putin's claim of Russia being a deeply Christian nation.
Right-Wing Figures in US Supporting Ukraine
🎦 16:24-17:02⏩
- Jonathan mentions right-wing figures like J.P. Lindsley who are pro-Ukraine and are trying to convince the Republican party that supporting Ukraine aligns better with their traditional values than supporting Russia.
- Lindsley argues that supporting Russia is illogical and highlights the double standards at play.
- He aims to persuade the American right that supporting Ukraine is consistent with their core values.
US Trade Relationship with Russia vs. EU and Canada
🎦 17:02-18:01⏩
- Jonathan discusses the bizarre situation where the Trump administration seems to be favouring trade with Russia over its traditional allies like the EU and Canada.
- He contrasts the relatively small US trade volume with Russia (0.5 billion) against much larger volumes with the EU and Canada (80 billion and 350 billion respectively).
- This suggests a misaligned trade policy where the US is potentially damaging its relationships with major trade partners while seemingly courting Russia.
Potential Trade Wars and Sanctions Impacting US
🎦 18:01-18:58⏩
- Jonathan argues that pursuing closer trade ties with Russia at the expense of the EU and Canada is economically illogical for the US.
- He suggests that trade wars, sanctions, and boycotts from the EU and Canada in response to US tariffs will significantly harm the US economy.
- The US stands to lose far more from damaging trade relationships with its traditional allies than it could gain from Russia.
Romania and Bulgaria's Concerns over US-Russia Black Sea Grain Deal
🎦 18:58-20:23⏩
- Romania and Bulgaria, Black Sea nations, are concerned about reports of a potential US-Russia Black Sea grain deal.
- While Ukraine no longer needs a grain export deal due to establishing a safe corridor along the Romanian and Bulgarian coastlines, Russia is pushing for a deal.
- Russia likely wants a grain deal to regain the ability to stop and search vessels, as they did under the previous grain deal.
- Romania and Bulgaria are wary that such a deal could restore Moscow's position in the Black Sea, potentially at Ukraine's expense.
Stephen Witkoff's Controversial Interview with Tucker Carlson
🎦 20:23-20:36⏩
- Jonathan transitions to discussing Stephen Witkoff's "insanely bad interview" with Tucker Carlson, which has generated significant negative analysis.
- Analysts are questioning Witkoff's background, qualifications, and potential sympathies towards Russia.
- Witkoff's paternal grandparents were from Russia, raising questions about his allegiances in the context of US-Ukraine-Russia relations.
US Focus Shift from Ukrainian Elections to Constitutional Change
🎦 20:36-21:54⏩
- Jonathan discusses a perspective from Roman Sharaneta suggesting a shift in US strategy regarding Ukraine.
- Initially, the US plan may have been to replace Zelensky through elections if he refused to capitulate to Russia.
- However, it is argued that no current Ukrainian political figures are willing to sign a capitulation, as it is unconstitutional.
- The US is now supposedly considering pushing for constitutional changes in Ukraine to facilitate a peace deal, but this is also seen as difficult due to parliamentary processes and public opinion in Ukraine.
Contrasting US and Russian Approaches to the Conflict
🎦 21:54-22:06⏩
- There is a contradiction in approaches, with Russia wanting to prolong the conflict to seize more territory and strengthen its position, while the US, particularly under a Trump administration, desires a quick resolution.
- Trump's promise of "peace in 24 hours" is seen as unrealistic and his plan is "crumbling fast".
Potential for US to Abandon Ukraine and Shift Responsibility to Europe
🎦 22:06-22:29⏩
- Jonathan speculates that the US might eventually give up on efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict and leave it to Europe to manage.
- The US could shift to pushing Europe to provide security guarantees and negotiate peace deals if the conflict drags on.
- This scenario is gaining traction as some observers believe Russia is deliberately prolonging the conflict.
Brit Hume and Republicans Against Trump Suggesting Trump Administration Being Played by Russia
🎦 22:29-23:08⏩
- Republicans Against Trump are referencing Fox News's chief political analyst Brit Hume, who suggests the Trump administration might be getting "played" by Russia in negotiations.
- Even Trump-aligned analysts are noting that the Trump administration, particularly figures like Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio and Mike Walz, appear to be easily manipulated by experienced Russian diplomats like Ushakov, Dmitriev, and Lavrov.
Moscow Times Reports Russia Deliberately Prolonging Peace Talks
🎦 23:08-23:17⏩
- The Moscow Times reports, citing He of Independence, that Russia is deliberately prolonging peace talks with Ukraine to gain more territory and improve its negotiating position with the US.
Andrew Neil's Scathing Criticism of Stephen Witkoff
🎦 23:17-24:19⏩
- Jonathan shares criticism from Andrew Neil, a conservative UK commentator, who strongly condemns Stephen Witkoff's interview.
- Neil describes the interview as sounding like "a podcast of the mentally challenged" and expresses disbelief that Witkoff, a property billionaire with no geopolitical expertise, is leading peace efforts.
- Neil implies that Witkoff is unqualified and uninformed about international affairs.
Witkoff and Carlson Accused of Repeating Kremlin Talking Points
🎦 24:19-25:12⏩
- Andrew Neil further criticises Witkoff and Tucker Carlson for repeating Kremlin talking points during their interview.
- He refers to them as "Kremlin lovers" and highlights the absurdity of the situation, noting jokes in US comedy shows about Russia being America's most important ally.
- Witkoff's description of Putin as "not a bad guy" is particularly condemned, given Putin's history of violence and oppression.
Concerns of US-Russia Peace Deal Imposed on Ukraine and Europe
🎦 25:12-26:06⏩
- Andrew Neil suggests that the US and Russia are attempting to reach a peace agreement that excludes Europe and Ukraine.
- This is seen as a "strongman peace play," an attempt to impose a peace deal on Ukraine, potentially resembling a surrender rather than a negotiated settlement.
- Neil expresses a lack of confidence in these peace talks, fearing they could lead to a detrimental outcome for Ukraine.
Ukrainian Parliamentarian Calls for Witkoff's Recall
🎦 26:06-26:53⏩
- Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine's parliament's Committee on Foreign Policy, has stated that Steve Witkoff should be recalled from his position as US Special Envoy.
- Merezhko describes Witkoff's remarks on referendums in Russian-occupied territories as "disgraceful and shocking" and accuses him of echoing Russian propaganda.
- He questions whether Witkoff is acting as Trump's envoy or Putin's envoy, reflecting growing Ukrainian distrust.
Zelensky: US Officials Taking Putin at His Word Over Intelligence
🎦 26:53-27:39⏩
- Zelensky claims that US officials have begun to take Putin's statements at face value, even when their own intelligence contradicts them.
- This is linked to Trump's claim, supposedly based on information from Putin via Witkoff, that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded near Kursk, despite US intelligence indicating otherwise.
- Zelensky suggests the US is now getting its intelligence from Putin through intermediaries like Witkoff, rather than relying on its own intelligence services.
Frank Gardner's Criticism of Witkoff's Comments and US Policy
🎦 27:39-29:28⏩
- Frank Gardner, a BBC security correspondent, discusses the implications of Witkoff's recent comments, particularly his criticism of European peace initiatives.
- Gardner notes the frustration in the British and French governments, as they had understood from the Trump administration that Europe should take the lead in providing a reassurance force for Ukraine.
- Witkoff, described as a New York property tycoon lacking foreign affairs expertise, dismissed these European efforts, causing dismay in Whitehall.
- Gardner excoriates Witkoff's lack of knowledge and dismissive attitude towards European allies.
US Inconsistency in Demanding European Action and Then Dismissing It
🎦 29:28-30:22⏩
- Jonathan reiterates Gardner's point about US inconsistency: the US previously asked Europe to take responsibility for security in Ukraine, and now Witkoff is dismissive of European efforts to create a peacekeeping force and security guarantees.
- This is seen as infuriating, as the US seems to be both demanding European action and then undermining and criticising it.
- This pattern of behaviour is not new and has occurred previously.
Dan Hodges: Consistent Anti-Europe and Pro-Russia Messaging from US Administration
🎦 30:22-30:45⏩
- Dan Hodges points out that statements from various senior US administration officials, including Trump, Witkoff, Vance, and Hegseth, should not be viewed in isolation.
- Despite attempts to downplay each statement as just "Trump being Trump" or "Witkoff being an idiot," Hodges argues they collectively convey a consistent message: "We like Russia, we hate Europe and NATO, and we're coming for you."
- Jonathan agrees with this assessment, seeing a clear and concerning pattern in the messaging.
Mysterious Death of US Attorney Investigating Russians
🎦 30:45-31:18⏩
- Jonathan mentions the mysterious death of Jessica Aver, a 43-year-old US attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia who was investigating Russians.
- This is the second recent death of a young person connected to the Biden administration under unusual circumstances.
- While cautioning it could be coincidence, Jonathan finds the situation disturbing and worthy of attention.
Republican Don Bacon Stands Up for Ukraine
🎦 31:18-32:03⏩
- Jonathan notes that some Republicans, like Don Bacon, are still standing up for what is right and supporting Ukraine.
- He highlights a quote from Don Bacon emphasizing that the invasion of Ukraine is a crime against humanity, an unjust and unprovoked war, and that Putin does not recognise Ukrainians' national identity.
- This demonstrates that not all Republicans align with a pro-Russia stance.
Cartoon Depicting US Self-Serving Approach to Ukraine Peace Talks
🎦 32:03-32:29⏩
- Jonathan describes a cartoon illustrating the perception that the US approach to peace talks with Ukraine is self-serving.
- The cartoon depicts the US appearing to help Ukraine but actually exploiting the situation for its own gain, symbolised by stealing a watch while Ukraine is drowning.
- This reflects cynicism about US intentions in peace negotiations, potentially driven by mineral deals and other self-interests.
US Meetings with Ukraine and Russia in Riyadh
🎦 32:29-32:48⏩
- Jonathan reports on recent meetings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, involving the US, Ukraine, and Russia.
- The US met with Ukrainian representatives one night, then separately with Russian representatives the next day, with a further meeting with Ukrainians planned.
- These separate meetings indicate a complex and potentially disjointed approach to negotiations.
- The outcomes of these meetings remain to be seen.
Ukrainian Tennis Player Marta Kostiuk Beats Russian Player with Underarm Serve
🎦 32:48-33:52⏩
- Jonathan shifts to a lighter note, showing a video clip of Ukrainian tennis player Marta Kostiuk defeating a Russian player at a tournament in Miami.
- He highlights the "ultimate diss" of Kostiuk winning match point with an underarm serve, which is considered unconventional and disrespectful in professional tennis.
- He also points out that Kostiuk walked past her Russian opponent without shaking hands, illustrating the animosity between Ukrainian and Russian athletes due to the conflict.
Trump's Aggressive Stance Towards Canada, Denmark and Greenland
🎦 33:52-34:31⏩
- Jonathan links the previous discussions about US-Russia relations to Trump's aggressive approach towards allies like Canada, Denmark (and Greenland).
- This highlights a pattern of attacking allies while potentially being friendly with enemies.
- Security issues related to Greenland and coercive behaviour towards NATO members Canada and Denmark are discussed.
Canada's Anger and Firm Stance Against Trump's Rhetoric
🎦 34:31-35:09⏩
- Canada is becoming increasingly angry at Trump's rhetoric, particularly regarding suggestions of annexing Canada as a "51st state".
- Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly has stated that if the US can treat its closest friend like this, no one is safe, and firmly asserted Canada's sovereignty is not up for debate.
- New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called snap elections and indicated that Canada will refuse to negotiate with Trump until he stops the rhetoric about Canada becoming a US state.
Canada's Prime Minister Dismisses Need for Public Support from UK/Europe
🎦 35:09-36:17⏩
- Canada's Prime Minister downplays the need for public shows of support from the UK or Europe against Trump's comments.
- He suggests he understands the difficult position those countries are in and asserts Canada can stand up for itself without needing external public support.
- However, he emphasizes that negotiations with Trump's administration are contingent on stopping the "stupid rhetoric" about annexation.
Danish Consumer Boycott of US Products and Tourism Due to Trump
🎦 36:17-37:07⏩
- Jonathan reports on the negative impact of Trump's policies on Danish consumers' attitudes towards US products and tourism.
- A significant percentage of Danish consumers find it hard to consciously avoid buying American products after Trump's inauguration.
- Negative views of Tesla and reduced willingness to visit the US have increased sharply among Danes.
- Jonathan shares an anecdote about a Danish friend cancelling a six-week US holiday due to the political climate.
Decline in Canadian Land Border Crossings into US and Economic Impact
🎦 37:07-37:58⏩
- There has been a substantial decrease (500,000 fewer travellers) in land border crossings from Canada into the US in February compared to the previous year.
- This decline in Canadian visitors is causing economic harm to US businesses dependent on cross-border tourism and trade.
- A hotel owner in Maine, a state that voted for Trump, reports a 90% loss in business due to Trump's actions against Canada.
- This highlights the real economic pushback against Trump's policies from within the US itself.
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
- Task 2: Topic Titles:
- Read through the transcript and identify different topics based on content shifts.
- Create concise, specific, and quantified topic titles for each topic.
- Ensure the first topic is "Hello Team" and the last is "Wrap up".
- Number each topic and assign an `id` attribute within `
` XML tags.
- Pay attention to Ukrainian place names and correct spellings of names mentioned in the prompt.
- Task 3: Topic Timestamps:
- For each topic identified in Task 2, find the corresponding start and end timestamps in the transcript.
- Format the timestamps correctly (MM:SS or HH:MM:SS).
- Wrap the timestamps in `
` XML tags, ensuring the `id` attribute matches the corresponding ` `.
- Double-check that the timestamps cover the entire video duration without significant gaps.
- Task 4: Topic Summaries:
- For each topic, write a summary of the key points discussed.
- Use bullet points for clarity.
- Include Jonathan's insights, opinions, and any mentioned sources or credits.
- Maintain British English and use correct Ukrainian spellings.
- Wrap each summary in `` XML tags with matching `id` attributes.
- Task 5: Quote:
- Read through the transcript and select a significant or insightful quote from Jonathan.
- Correct any spelling or grammatical errors in the quote for clarity and conciseness.
- Wrap the chosen quote in `
` XML tags.
- Task 6: Queries:
- Review all tasks and the transcript.
- Identify any parts that were unclear, ambiguous, or caused confusion.
- If everything is clear, explicitly state "None".
- Wrap any queries or "None" in `
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
` XML tags.