Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitics News

"It's really risky once you've let someone into your inner circle to then eject them from your inner circle. It's a zero-sum game. They will just go to the other side, right? And they'll go, oh, all that NATO stuff you want to know about? We've got an absolute ton of intel."

Hello Team

🎦 00:00-00:20⏩

Jonathan introduces the video and outlines that he's going to cover military aid and geopolitics news in one video. He mentions there isn't much military aid and equipment news to share.

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Zelensky on Ukrainian Weaponry

🎦 00:26-01:06⏩

Jonathan discusses President Zelensky's visit to the UK for a European meeting and Zelensky's call for more aggressive action against Russia. Zelensky states that Ukrainian forces should not be restricted in their use of weapons and that all Russian airfields must be destroyed. Jonathan agrees with Zelensky's sentiment and highlights that the main criticism of US support for Ukraine is that it's not going far enough.

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Lord Robertson's Opinion on the War

🎦 01:06-02:14⏩

Jonathan reports on Lord Robertson's statement that the West needs to fight Russia "with the gloves off". He agrees with Robertson's point and notes that despite billions of dollars in military aid, Ukraine has not been allowed to fight with full freedom. He attributes this to "incrementalism" and fear of Putin's nuclear threats.

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Breaking Down Putin's "Red Lines"

🎦 02:14-03:12⏩

Jonathan explores Putin's so-called "red lines" in the war, highlighting that the UK has already crossed several by providing tanks, long-range artillery, and allowing Ukraine to strike targets in Russian territory. He points out that the Kremlin has not reacted strongly to these actions.

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Finland's NATO Accession and Russian Response

🎦 03:12-03:58⏩

Jonathan discusses Finland's accession to NATO and Russia's reaction. He notes that Russia withdrew troops from the Finnish border initially but then created a new military district which was ultimately under-staffed and resources were moved elsewhere.

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France's Military Aid Package to Ukraine

🎦 04:07-05:13⏩

Jonathan reports that France is sending a significant military aid package to Ukraine, including VABs (armoured personnel carriers), Caesar artillery systems, AMX-10 RC light tanks, anti-tank missiles, trucks, and radars. This is good news for Ukraine and a positive development.

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French Military Aid Updates

🎦 05:13-05:40⏩

Jonathan shares additional details on French military aid, noting the specific number of VABs and AMX-10 RCs being sent. He also mentions that Denmark is funding the purchase of 18 Bogdanas, a Ukrainian-made self-propelled artillery system.

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Ukraine's Domestic Arms Production

🎦 05:48-06:22⏩

Jonathan highlights Ukraine's efforts to ramp up its own arms production, but notes that they are struggling with bottlenecks in terms of explosives and rocket fuel.

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Greece's F-16 Transfer to Ukraine

🎦 06:22-07:13⏩

Jonathan provides an update on the potential transfer of 32 decommissioned F-16s from Greece to Ukraine. He stresses that the situation is not definite and that Greece is seeking guarantees for backfilling their air force with F-35s or Rafales before delivering the F-16s.

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Renew Europe's Call for a United European Defence

🎦 07:23-08:01⏩

Jonathan highlights a statement from Valerie Heyer, European deputy president of Renew Europe, calling for a united European defense market. Heyer points out the fragmentation of European militaries and the need for greater investment in a common defense strategy.

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European Geopolitics in the Wake of Trump and Vance

🎦 08:01-08:45⏩

Jonathan discusses the geopolitical implications of potential Trump and Vance isolationism, and what it might mean for Europe. He argues that Europe may need to rely more on its own defense industry and move away from reliance on the US. He believes this would hurt the US, as it would lose a significant market for its weapons.

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US Defense Industry Pressure

🎦 08:47-09:40⏩

Jonathan explores the potential pressure that US defense manufacturers might put on politicians if the US retreats from international affairs. He suggests that they might lobby against isolationism, as it would hurt their businesses.

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Europe's Potential for a More United Defense

🎦 09:40-10:35⏩

Jonathan suggests that Europe may need to start thinking more strategically about its own defense and manufacturing capabilities, and consider a more unified approach to defense. This could potentially lead to a European army or a closer security agreement among European nations.

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Challenges of Hungary and Slovakia

🎦 10:35-11:29⏩

Jonathan discusses the potential challenges posed by Hungary and Slovakia in a united European defense strategy. He notes that they hold a lot of intelligence and kicking them out of NATO or the EU could be risky, as they might share sensitive information with Russia.

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Russian Military Spending

🎦 12:18-12:49⏩

Jonathan reports on a study that found Russian military spending on servicemen and their families amounted to 8% of all federal government spending, which is equivalent to 1.5% of Russia's GDP. He finds this figure "absolutely staggering" if true.

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Drone Parts Smuggling Case in Germany

🎦 12:49-13:08⏩

Jonathan reports that a German court has convicted a German-Russian couple of supplying drone parts to Russia. He views this as good news and a sign of comeuppance.

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Zelensky's Visit to the UK

🎦 13:08-13:49⏩

Jonathan reports on Zelensky's visit to the UK for a summit and bilateral meetings with partners. He mentions the signing of an intergovernmental agreement on support for the Ukrainian defense industry, future defense cooperation, and expanding defense capabilities.

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Ursula von der Leyen's Re-Election as EU Commission President

🎦 14:01-14:43⏩

Jonathan discusses Ursula von der Leyen's re-election as EU Commission president, noting that this is positive news for Ukraine as it signifies continuity of support. He mentions that she plans to create an EU defense alliance if she's re-elected.

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National Rally's Opposition to EU Policies and Ukraine Support

🎦 14:43-15:18⏩

Jonathan discusses the stance of the National Rally, a far-right European political party, which opposes the Green Deal, the Migration Pact, and the dissolution of national sovereignty. While they have stated support for Ukraine, they have several caveats and their coalition includes Viktor Orban's Fidesz party, known for its Eurosceptic and anti-EU stance.

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Dutch Politics and the New Prime Minister

🎦 15:18-16:13⏩

Jonathan discusses the Dutch political landscape, mentioning the new prime minister, who leads a coalition that includes the PVV party of Geert Wilders, a figure considered more pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine than the coalition overall. He highlights some disagreements within the Dutch government concerning condemnation of Russia.

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Escalating Tensions in the Balkans

🎦 16:13-17:28⏩

Jonathan expresses concern about escalating tensions in the Balkans, specifically mentioning Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. He reports that Russia has been stoking discontent and fermenting discord in the region, with Serbian propaganda claiming that Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are preparing for war against Serbia. He points out that this narrative is misleading and that the Serbian government is actually preparing for escalation. Jonathan highlights the worrying prospect of a Balkan conflict, especially in light of the potential for a Trump-led isolationist US administration.

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Hungary's Oil Supply Dispute

🎦 17:28-18:14⏩

Jonathan reports on a dispute between Ukraine and Hungary over oil supplies. Hungary's foreign minister claims that Ukraine has blocked Russian oil supplies to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline. Jonathan notes that this oil pipeline runs through Ukraine to mainland Europe and that it's in Ukraine's best interest to keep it operating. He is curious to see how this situation will play out.

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Lithuania's Energy Independence

🎦 18:30-18:50⏩

Jonathan reports that Lithuania is making progress towards full energy independence by disconnecting from the Russian power grid by February 2025. He sees this as a positive step towards reducing reliance on Russia.

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Caterpillar Equipment Exports to Russia

🎦 18:50-19:14⏩

Jonathan highlights that Caterpillar equipment is still being supplied to Russia despite the company's announced exit from the country. He notes that a British dealer imported over $24 million worth of Caterpillar gear through a complex international network.

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Medvedev's NATO Warning

🎦 19:14-19:52⏩

Jonathan discusses Dmitry Medvedev's claim that Ukraine joining NATO would be viewed as a declaration of war against Moscow. Jonathan finds this absurd, pointing out that Russia is already at war with Ukraine and NATO. He criticizes Russia's attempts to control the agency of a foreign nation.

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Trump's Taiwan Statement

🎦 20:00-20:52⏩

Jonathan expresses concern about Donald Trump's statement in a Bloomberg interview suggesting he wouldn't defend Taiwan if attacked by China. He sees this as a very naive and potentially dangerous stance, as it could give Xi Jinping a green light to invade Taiwan. He criticizes Trump's lack of judgment and recklessness in making such statements.

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Republican Party's Stance on China and Ukraine

🎦 20:52-23:23⏩

Jonathan discusses the Republican Party's stance on China and Ukraine, highlighting a contradiction between their hawkishness on China and their opposition to support for Ukraine. He argues that a successful Ukraine against Russia would be a positive message to China, but some Republicans don't see it this way. He views their stance as partisan and dangerous.

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Trump's Isolationist Approach

🎦 23:23-24:11⏩

Jonathan highlights that Trump's comments on Taiwan are consistent with his economic nationalist message, suggesting an isolationist retreat from global affairs and a focus on protectionism. He views this as a potentially disastrous strategy, leading to high inflation and economic instability.

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Trump's Views vs. GOP China Hawks

🎦 24:11-24:53⏩

Jonathan notes that Trump's views on China and Taiwan diverge from those of the new wave of GOP China hawks. He points out that these hawks, despite previously aligning with Trump, appear to have more in common with the Biden administration's approach to China.

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Nikki Haley's Shift Against Trump

🎦 24:53-25:49⏩

Jonathan mentions Nikki Haley's recent shift against Trump, noting that she has gone against his stance on foreign policy. He finds this disturbing, as it seems to indicate a lack of ideological conviction within the GOP.

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GOP's Fealty to Trump

🎦 25:49-26:15⏩

Jonathan expresses concern about the GOP's apparent lack of ideological conviction and their complete adherence to Trump, even when he contradicts their previous beliefs. He finds this dangerous for American politics, as it makes the GOP prone to following Trump's whims without any deeper thought or principle.

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Assassination Attempt on Trump

🎦 26:15-27:10⏩

Jonathan discusses the recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the FBI's finding that the gunman did not have strong partisan political views. He criticizes Republicans who blamed Biden for the incident, and calls for them to apologize for spreading divisive rhetoric.

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European Concerns about the Direction of US Politics

🎦 27:10-27:55⏩

Jonathan reports that US allies in Europe are expressing concern about the direction of American politics, particularly the rise of Trumpism within the Republican Party. He cites Guy Verhofstadt's statement that the Kremlin is happy with the appointment of J.D. Vance as VP, and highlights the contrast between this perspective and the GOP's stance on Ukraine.

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Lavrov's Praise for J.D. Vance

🎦 27:55-29:47⏩

Jonathan highlights the fact that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has publicly praised J.D. Vance's appointment as VP. He finds this deeply troubling, as it suggests that Vance's stance is aligned with Russian interests and that he might be a potential asset to Russia.

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David Sachs' Speech at the RNC

🎦 29:48-33:41⏩

Jonathan discusses a speech by David Sachs at the Republican National Committee (RNC) convention, where Sachs blamed NATO expansion for provoking Russia to invade Ukraine. He notes that this narrative is consistent with Russian propaganda and that Sachs' remarks were met with a lukewarm response, indicating that they weren't widely popular among Republicans.

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Paul Manafort's Presence at the RNC

🎦 33:41-34:30⏩

Jonathan points out the presence of Paul Manafort, a former Trump campaign manager who has been compromised by Russia, at the RNC. He sees this as a worrying sign of Russian influence within the Republican Party.

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Nikki Haley's Factually Incorrect Statements

🎦 34:38-36:38⏩

Jonathan addresses Nikki Haley's statement that Putin did not invade Ukraine under Trump's presidency, claiming that he was deterred by Trump's strong leadership. He highlights the factual inaccuracies of this claim, pointing out that Russia's hostilities against Ukraine increased during Trump's presidency. He also notes that Trump withheld military aid from Ukraine to pressure Zelensky into investigating Biden, which is a clear case of misconduct.

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GOP's Distorted View of Reality

🎦 36:38-37:06⏩

Jonathan expresses concern about the GOP's distorted view of reality and their willingness to embrace Russian narratives, even when they are demonstrably false. He sees this as a dangerous trend that threatens the integrity of US politics.

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Kimberly Guilfoyle's Misleading Statements

🎦 37:06-38:49⏩

Jonathan discusses a speech by Kimberly Guilfoyle at the RNC, in which she made misleading statements about World War II and the role of American soldiers. She claimed that soldiers who fought in Normandy are no longer recognizing their country, suggesting a false equivalence between communism and fascism, and implying that the US is now a communist country. Jonathan views this as either deeply stupid or deliberately divisive and dishonest. He criticizes her blatant disregard for factual accuracy.

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Biden's Potential Candidacy and the Democratic Party

🎦 38:49-45:38⏩

Jonathan discusses Biden's potential candidacy for president in 2024. He notes that there are both arguments for and against him running again. He explores the rationale for Biden staying in the race, emphasizing his experience and the lack of any damaging skeletons in his closet. He also discusses the potential for new candidates to bring fresh energy to the Democratic Party, and notes that some Democrats, including Adam Schiff, are calling for Biden to step down. Jonathan delves into the factors that might influence Biden's decision, including polls, donor support, and the opinions of Democratic lawmakers. He highlights reports that Democratic lawmakers are privately expressing their desire for Biden to step down, and that even Biden is starting to question his own chances of winning.

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Wrap up

🎦 45:38-45:56⏩

Jonathan concludes the video by reminding viewers that Biden will publicly insist on staying in the race until he officially steps down. He sees this as a strategy to maintain control of the narrative and avoid giving his opponents any leverage.

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