Ukraine War Update EXTRA: Dnipro Missile Analysis, Putin's Nonsense, Give 'Em Everything
Table of Contents 📖
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"Why would you not, therefore, want to remove that threat? You don't have to sit back and defend on the goal line waiting for it to come. It's now revealed itself."
Hello Team!
Jonathan has his cup of tea and thanks Nicola for her support on Buy Me a Coffee. He jokes that he's not mature enough for coffee yet and is a verified Yorkshire tea drinker.
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Evocative images from war
Jonathan shares an evocative image of a cat in Ukraine, noting it may be AI-generated. He compares it to other memorable war photos that bring home the reality of conflict. He also mentions the recent helicopter crash near Kyiv that killed children, a terrible loss of life.
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Russian missile attacks and dwindling stocks
- The recent Russian missile attack on Dnipro used an inaccurate anti-ship missile (Kh-22) fired from a bomber, according to Ukraine's Defence Intelligence
- Russia is running low on precision Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles, now down to 118 from 280 in November
- They have increased use of old, inaccurate Kh-22 missiles, now having 162
- Using such inaccurate weapons in urban areas is a choice that will likely kill civilians, which Jonathan considers a war crime
Western tanks for Ukraine
- Poland wants to send 100 Western tanks to Ukraine with allies, but Ukraine needs 300
- Tanks were designed to fight Soviet equipment, so should be used for that purpose now
- NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg says to give Ukraine everything, so NATO tank requirements are not an excuse
- Germany's export license issue is holding things up, Poland may give tanks anyway
- Ramstein meeting Friday will hopefully resolve this, UK and others should give maximum now
UK defence procurement questions
In a clip from the Ukraine: The Latest podcast, retired Air Marshal Edward Stringer argues:
- UK's Challenger 2 tanks and other "legacy equipment" should be given to Ukraine now as Russia is the only acute military threat
- This is the ideal time to "defang" Russia and remove the threat for at least a decade
- UK can then reset its army procurement, deciding if it needs an indigenous tank or to join with allies like South Korea
- Despite worries, the UK must take risks now to defeat Russia as even frontline NATO allies are giving a lot
Contrasting Russian and Ukrainian offensives
Retired Australian general Mick Ryan compares the Russian Bakhmut offensive with Ukraine's in the Kreminna-Svatove area:
- Russia is attacking a strategically unimportant area where Ukraine is strongest, while Ukraine targets weak points to cut supply lines
- Ukraine uses a professional army, Russia uses mercenaries like Wagner Group which highlights asymmetry in national will
- Putin desperately needs a victory before invasion anniversary, while Zelenskyy has momentum and can be patient
- The scale of 2023 offensives may dwarf current battles, Russia may mobilize 300K troops but Ukraine must husband resources
Russian loitering munition destroys Ukrainian radar
A video shows a Russian Lancet loitering munition destroying a Ukrainian 1L441 weather radar in Kherson. The radar collected data for artillery and aviation. Though a small explosion, it eventually destroys the entire radar station, using a cheap drone to take out expensive equipment.
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Putin's deceptive speech
Jonathan criticizes Putin's recent speech as "a load of bollocks":
- Putin claims Russia "suffered for a long time" and "tried to come to an agreement" but was "deceived"
- In reality, Russia invaded Ukraine illegally in 2014 with "little green men" and annexed Crimea
- Putin says Russia did "everything possible to settle this peacefully" which is clearly a lie
- Jonathan compares it to mugging an old lady while asking for her purse, and hopes Putin's domestic audience doesn't buy this nonsense
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and supporting the channel. He mentions he may do a video comparing the Biden and Trump classified document situations. He appreciates all the ways viewers support the channel, linked in the description.
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