Ukraine War Update: Full Frontline Update
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
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"The return to doctrinal structures represents an inflection in Russian force structure and campaign design."
Hello Team!
Jonathan uses the ISW (Institute for the Study of War) reports to get Russian and Ukrainian perspectives to piece together what is happening on the frontlines. He uses their footnoted sources to understand the claims from each side, regardless of whether he agrees with ISW's ideological leanings.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Russian Force Constitution
- The major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is underway
- Russia likely lacks sufficient reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity this winter
- Russian forces in Luhansk are deploying in doctrinal units from the military district level down to battalion level
- This suggests a return to the traditional military district command and control structure under a single district (Western Military District)
- Regiments have been reconstituted with mobilized personnel as replacements instead of ad hoc formations
- This represents an inflection in Russian force structure and campaign design as the MOD engages in reforms to formalize and professionalize the armed forces for a protracted war
- The Russian military has committed a large majority of the Western Military District elements to the offensive in Luhansk, leaving few in reserve
- The absence of elite units suggests Russia still faces challenges in reconstituting units
- The pattern of deployments in other parts of the theater suggests most available elements are already committed and do not constitute a large reserve
Frontline Update: Kupyansk to Kreminna
- Intense fighting around Synkivka and Hryanykivka (now Russian controlled)
- East of Kotlyarivka, Russian troops approached the village but were repelled
- Around Dvorichna, an unknown area outlined in red is Russian controlled
- Russians are heavily shelling Kyslivka and Kotlyarivka in preparation for future attacks
- DRGs (deep reconnaissance groups) were sent into these towns but destroyed
- This area could be the site of a future Russian offensive concentration
Frontline Update: Kreminna
- Not much territorial change
- ISW increased the Russian buffer northwest of the city
- Ukrainian troops repelled attacks towards Yampolivka and Chervonopopivka
- Still no breakthrough
- Ongoing fighting in the forest south of Kreminna with reports Ukrainians never lost as much ground as thought or successfully counterattacked and retook land
Frontline Update: Bakhmut
- Fighting in Paraskoviivka, Berkhivka, Yahidne
- Russians broke through Ukrainian defenses south of Paraskoviivka and are fighting along forest strips north of Yahidne and Berkhivka
- Ukrainian forces seem optimistic in this area
- In eastern Bakhmut, Russians advanced in Zabakhmutivka reaching the district cemetery and Vatutina street, with 35% of the district under their control
- To the west, Ukrainians are using tanks to skillfully maneuver and attack Russian positions south of Ivanivske
- Southwest of Bakhmut, Ukrainians pushed Russians back from the Kostyantynivka road
Frontline Update: Avdiivka
- Russians moved west of Novoselivka Druha, crossed the road, took land and are fighting towards Kamyanka to enable a larger encirclement of Avdiivka
- Heaviest fighting is around Krasnohorivka and Vesele with ongoing battles in northern Avdiivka and its southern outskirts
- Russians are trying to overcome trench networks from Vodyane towards Severne
Frontline Update: Vuhledar
- Fighting towards Krasnohorivka north and south of Marinka
- Russians building defenses east of Novomykhailivka
- Attacks towards Vuhledar for a larger encirclement between the watercourse and Russian line
- Ukrainians gained a foothold in the central part of the cottages (dachas) northwest of Mykilske, completely cutting off the initial Russian line of attack
- Russians seem to be taking significant casualties and struggling to make progress
Other Frontline News
- Not much detail for the rest of the frontline down to Kherson
- A Russian drone manufacturer is reportedly producing Lancet drones in a public sauna due to disputes over access to facilities
- Russian forces are unable to repair modernized S-300 anti-aircraft systems near the frontlines due to logistics issues and have to transfer them to plants in Russia
Wrap up
Jonathan thanks viewers for supporting the channel and reminds them to like, subscribe and share. He appreciates the support and will be back with a Ukraine War Update Extra video later.
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🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
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