Ukraine War Update BUMPER NEWS: Geopolitical News - Trump Picks & What They Mean
Table of Contents 📖
"Death to the expert, JP. It's called death to the expert. It's the greatest problem caused by social media."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-02:54⏩
Jonathan reflects on recent political trends, expressing concern about the direction of Europe, the UK, and the world. He acknowledges feeling "ranty" in previous videos due to the perceived lack of reward for "goodness" and the apparent advantage of "bad guys." He also mentions an argument on Facebook about comparing the situations in Gaza and Ukraine, highlighting the non-competitive nature of suffering. Despite his frustrations, he finds solace in a good argument. Viewers' comments urging him to look after his mental health are acknowledged, and he assures them that he thrives on debate.
- "I see Europe veering off in a direction in general that I don't like"
- "Good guys don't seem to prevail at the moment"
- "...the truth of the matter is, guys, I bloody love a good argument with me."
- "I guess this morning I was in an angry mode. And actually, some of you were on the comments saying, look after yourself, keep yourself healthy, mental health and all that."
Unrest in Abkhazia, Georgia
🎦 02:54-04:20⏩
Jonathan reports on mass clashes in temporarily occupied Abkhazia, Georgia, triggered by law enforcement's attack on opposition figures. He links this event to pro-European rallies in Tbilisi, where citizens contest the legitimacy of recent parliamentary elections. Jonathan hopes that the pro-European movement in Georgia maintains its momentum and doesn't fall victim to the "long game" often employed by Russia and authoritarian regimes. He draws parallels to Russia's strategy of waiting for nations to tire of supporting Ukraine, a concern raised by Jonathan two and a half years prior.
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Opposition Leader in Hungary Reports Surveillance
🎦 04:20-05:30⏩
Jonathan discusses claims by Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar that his apartment, offices, and vehicles have been under surveillance for months. This revelation, he argues, is unsurprising given the growing popularity of Magyar's party, which is challenging Viktor Orbán's Fidesz. Jonathan highlights the importance of free and fair elections in Hungary, emphasizing the EU's role in ensuring electoral integrity. He expresses hope for a shift in Hungary's political trajectory under new leadership.
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Viewer Comment: Engaging with UK MPs
🎦 05:30-06:52⏩
Jonathan shares a viewer comment from a UK resident who highlights the importance of writing to MPs. The viewer reports positive interaction with their new Lib Dem MP, contrasting it with the lack of engagement from their previous Conservative representative. Jonathan emphasizes the effectiveness of parliamentary petitions and how they can trigger debates on critical issues. He then segues into the broader topic of Donald Trump's potential return to power, a subject also raised by Alistair Campbell and Rory Stewart in a previous video excerpt.
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UK's Role in Europe: Security and Economic Considerations
🎦 06:52-11:19⏩
Jonathan delves into the UK's position in Europe, emphasizing the need for closer collaboration with the EU on security, intelligence sharing, and military industrial matters. He argues that the UK's isolation following Brexit weakens its negotiating power and security posture. He draws parallels to other smaller nations within the EU that are forming alliances and sharing resources to bolster their defence capabilities. Jonathan acknowledges the challenges in fostering closer UK-EU ties due to Brexit sentiment, but stresses the urgency of the situation given the global security landscape. He then discusses the advantages of authoritarian regimes like China and Russia in implementing long-term strategic plans. He contrasts their ability to weather economic storms and pursue ambitious goals like the Belt and Road Initiative with the short-term focus often imposed by democratic election cycles. Jonathan underscores the vulnerabilities of democracies to perceptions of economic hardship, even when underlying indicators are strong, using the recent US election as a prime example.
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Concerns about Rising Authoritarianism in the US and Europe
🎦 11:19-13:56⏩
Jonathan expresses deep concern about growing authoritarian tendencies in the US, arguing that the Trump regime exhibits autocratic characteristics despite potential backlash from viewers. He points to similar movements within the EU, citing figures like Robert Fico and Viktor Orbán, and emphasizes the need for the UK to find its place in a world increasingly dominated by autocratic states. He further explores the erosion of trust in expertise, a phenomenon he attributes to social media. He cites a viewer comment from Michael Vujar highlighting the "death of the expert" and Michael Gove's dismissal of expert opinions during the Brexit campaign. Jonathan suggests that this trend, coupled with the proliferation of false experts on social media, leads to a reliance on "vibes and feels" rather than informed policy decisions.
- "So I argue, and we'll come on to this in a second, but the US regime is looking very autocratic in certain ways, although some of you will get really angry, start speaking on the screen, but actually I can show you some empirical evidence already of this."
- "Death to the expert, JP. It's called death to the expert. It's the greatest problem caused by social media."
Friedrich Merz on Potential Talks with Putin and German Elections
🎦 13:56-15:41⏩
Jonathan discusses Friedrich Merz, the German opposition candidate for Chancellor, and his willingness to engage in talks with Putin under certain conditions. Merz suggests a 24-hour ultimatum for Russia to cease hostilities, threatening to supply Taurus missiles to Ukraine and authorize strikes deep within Russian territory if ignored. Jonathan then reports on Chancellor Scholz's potential vote of confidence in the Bundestag, scheduled for December 16th, and the possibility of early elections in Germany on February 23rd, 2025, if the vote fails. He mentions rumors of Scholz's party, the SPD, considering Defence Minister Boris Pistorius as a replacement, praising Pistorius's performance and popularity.
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EU Prepares New Sanctions Package
🎦 15:41-16:02⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions the EU's preparations for the 15th round of sanctions against Russia. 27 member states are submitting proposals to the European Commission with the aim of strengthening measures ahead of the 1,000-day anniversary of the war on November 19th. Finalization of the sanctions is expected by February 2025.
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Lithuanian and Estonian Leaders Call for Ukraine's Victory
🎦 16:02-18:05⏩
Jonathan highlights statements from Lithuanian and Estonian leaders emphasizing the importance of Ukraine's victory. He cites a quote from a Lithuanian official stating, "Russia has to be defeated," and emphasizes the belief that Ukraine is fighting not only for its own people but also for the security of Lithuania and the broader region. Jonathan contrasts this rhetoric with the more passive "as long as it takes" stance adopted by many Western powers, particularly the Biden administration. He criticizes Trump's lack of explicit support for Ukraine's victory, noting his focus on "peace" rather than a decisive Ukrainian win.
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Kaya Kallas's Confirmation Hearing for EU Role
🎦 18:05-19:29⏩
Jonathan plays a 50-second excerpt from Kaya Kallas's EU confirmation hearing, where she explicitly calls for Ukraine's victory. He praises Kallas's strong support for Ukraine and contrasts her assertive rhetoric with the more ambiguous language used by Western powers.
- "Victory of Ukraine is a priority for us all. The situation on the battlefield is very difficult. And that is why we must keep on working every day, today, tomorrow, and for as long as it takes. And with as much military, financial, and humanitarian aid as needed."
The Need for European Leadership and the Rise of Tusk
🎦 19:29-23:57⏩
Jonathan discusses the need for strong leadership within Europe to support Ukraine, arguing that the UK's current position outside the EU limits its ability to lead. He acknowledges the previous efforts of Emmanuel Macron but suggests that his political standing has weakened due to domestic challenges. He considers other potential leaders, including Olaf Scholz, Giorgia Meloni, and Donald Tusk, highlighting Tusk's potential to unite European support for Ukraine. He shares a viewer comment suggesting that Tusk is emerging as a likely leader in opposition to Trump's stance on Ukraine. Jonathan then reports on Poland's initiative to establish a European alliance in support of Ukraine, potentially involving the UK, Nordic countries, and the Baltics. He emphasizes Poland's strategic interest in Ukraine's success, viewing it as essential for its own security.
- "I've long talked about how there needs to be a leader within Europe."
- "Poland is preparing to establish a European alliance in support of Ukraine"
NATO's Future Under Trump and EU Defence Considerations
🎦 23:57-28:27⏩
Jonathan discusses Shashank Joshi's analysis of NATO's potential fate under a Trump presidency. He cites Joshi's observations that Kallas views the EU's role as bolstering the defence industry and increasing ammunition production, while NATO serves as the primary military organization. Joshi suggests that Trump's isolationist tendencies would necessitate NATO-like powers, potentially with a headquarters elsewhere, but argues against a simplistic division of labor between military structures and the defence industry. Jonathan emphasizes that there's no readily available EU equivalent to replace NATO, highlighting the organization's extensive infrastructure and network built over decades. He explores various scenarios: one where Trump remains in NATO but reduces US involvement, allowing Europe to focus on specific capability gaps; and another where the US withdraws entirely, requiring a complete NATO replacement. Joshi favors a new arrangement where Europe increases its defence contributions in exchange for renewed US commitment, arguing for its cost-effectiveness and safety. Jonathan links this discussion to the EU's recognition of defence as a top priority, lamenting the potential sidelining of climate change initiatives despite the increasing frequency of extreme weather events.
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Trump's Election Win and Concerns about Authoritarianism
🎦 28:27-33:26⏩
Jonathan dives into US politics, stating that Trump's trifecta victory (presidency, House of Representatives, and Senate) coupled with a 6-3 Supreme Court majority grants him immense power. He expresses concern about the implications for democracy, arguing that the concentration of power in Republican hands raises questions about the future of checks and balances. He mentions the potential for Trump to appoint younger judges to the Supreme Court, further solidifying his grip on the judiciary. Jonathan also raises concerns about Trump's immunity from legal repercussions for actions taken while in office.
- "So like well-played Republicans, but well-played if all you are concerned with is power and holding onto power for as long as possible and not being as democratic as you possibly could be."
- "So if you're well up for authoritarianism, then well-played because all the seats of power are Trumpian, MAGA, Republican. This is an absolute massive win."
Trump's Potential Ethics Violations and Conflicts of Interest
🎦 33:26-36:13⏩
Jonathan discusses concerns about Trump's potential ethics violations, citing Elizabeth Warren's claim that Trump and his transition team are breaking the law by failing to sign an ethics agreement. He explains the requirement for incoming presidents to prevent conflicts of interest and points to Trump's history of flouting the emoluments clause during his previous term. Jonathan cites examples of Trump using his businesses to profit from foreign dignitaries during his presidency and expresses concern about the potential for similar conflicts of interest in his new term, particularly given Elon Musk's influence.
- "Trump and his transition team are already breaking the law"
- "So basically as this article says Trump still hasn't signed ethics agreement required for presidential transition"
Trump Administration Picks and Their Stance on Ukraine
🎦 36:13-40:06⏩
Jonathan examines potential members of Trump's administration and their views on Ukraine, drawing information from a thread by Euromodern Press. He outlines the positions and backgrounds of key figures:
- Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff): No known stance on Ukraine.
- Elise Stefanik (UN Ambassador): Initially supportive of Ukraine in 2022 but later aligned with Trump's views and voted against the Ukraine aid bill.
- Tom Homan (Border Security): Anti-immigration hardliner with no known stance on Ukraine, though Jonathan speculates that he's likely opposed to sending aid.
- Mike Waltz (National Security Advisor): Former special forces officer who initially supported Ukraine but later voted against aid, possibly due to pressure to conform to the party line.
- Elon Musk (Informal Advisor): Jonathan expresses concern about Musk's significant influence over Trump and his administration picks. He cites Musk's involvement in staffing decisions and phone calls with foreign leaders, including Zelensky, as potential violations of the Logan Act.
Jonathan further highlights Musk's endorsement of allowing presidential intervention in Federal Reserve policy, a move that he deems dangerous and potentially leading to economic instability. He expresses deep worry about the direction of the US, citing a lack of checks and balances and plans to weaken government institutions like the FBI, CIA, and education system.
- "So he's begun forming his administration. What do we know about them and their Ukraine stance?"
Trump's Erosion of Conservative Ideals
🎦 40:06-42:54⏩
Jonathan argues that Trump's actions are fundamentally at odds with traditional conservative ideals. He explains that conservatives typically value established institutions and checks and balances, while progressives are more open to rapid change. He criticizes Trump's desire to "gut the government" as being more aligned with progressive ideology and cites Rory Stewart, a traditional Conservative, as an example of someone who has been pushed away by the Republican Party's right-wing populism. Jonathan further contends that Trump's personal behavior and disregard for the rule of law are incompatible with the moral conservatism often associated with the Republican Party.
- "So if you define yourself as a conservative and you are up for the gutting of the government, that is deeply not a Conservative ideal."
- "He's anti-establishment and that's why anti-establishment people like him. But please don't call yourself a conservative and say that you support Trump."
Elon Musk and the Spread of Disinformation on Ukraine
🎦 42:54-43:48⏩
Jonathan discusses Anton Gerashchenko's concerns about Elon Musk's role in the Trump administration, highlighting Musk's apparent agreement with David Sachs, a pro-Russia commentator who spreads disinformation about Ukrainian corruption. Jonathan emphasizes the dangers of this narrative, which falsely accuses pro-Ukraine individuals and organizations of being bought by Ukrainian money. He expresses alarm that these individuals are now shaping US policy.
- "Elon Musk has begun to play a key role in the formation of the administration of Donald Trump"
Gerashchenko on the Need to Force Peace on Russia, Not Ukraine
🎦 43:48-45:22⏩
Jonathan presents Anton Gerashchenko's six key points summarizing the situation in Ukraine:
- Russia initiated the war by attacking Ukraine.
- Ukraine is defending itself.
- Russia continues to escalate the conflict.
- Ukraine is fighting against terror and genocide.
- The war will end when Russia ceases its aggression.
- Allies' support for Ukraine is an investment in collective defence, not charity.
Jonathan strongly agrees with these points, emphasizing the strategic benefits of supporting Ukraine in addition to the moral imperative. He criticizes the prevailing American approach of pressuring Ukraine into peace talks rather than holding Russia accountable. He argues that this approach benefits Russia by granting them concessions without significant consequences for their aggression.
- "...they are making an investment in collective defence. That's what I've been saying for two years. There's no such thing as a free lunch."
- "Russia has to be forced to peace, he says, not Ukraine. And this is my problem. This is my big problem is that the approach here from the Americans I think at the moment is forcing Ukraine to peace, not forcing Russia."
Analysis of Waltz and Kroenig's Proposed Ukraine Policy
🎦 45:22-50:18⏩
Jonathan analyzes an Economist article co-authored by Mike Waltz, Trump's new National Security Advisor, and Matthew Kroenig outlining their proposed Ukraine policy. The article argues that:
- The next president should prioritize ending the war and stopping the killing, rather than supporting Ukraine indefinitely.
- The US should leverage economic tools, including lifting the ban on LNG exports and cracking down on Russia's illicit oil sales.
- If Russia refuses to negotiate, the US should provide more weapons to Ukraine with fewer restrictions on their use.
Jonathan expresses reservations about this approach. While he agrees with increasing economic pressure on Russia and providing more weapons to Ukraine, he criticizes the idea of forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table under duress. He argues that this would benefit Russia by allowing them to dictate terms from a position of strength. He also questions whether Waltz's appointment signals a shift towards a more pro-Ukraine stance within the Trump administration, suggesting that Waltz might be concealing his true beliefs to avoid conflict with Trump.
- "America can use economic leverage. Yes, total agreement"
- "...good as in more weapons and you can fire them however far into Russia as you want. But this is still the principle as put forward I think by Kellogg and Flights before for the Trump peace plan which is if you don't go to the table we won't give you any more aid and if you don't go to the table we'll give them more aid. What that does is it gets them to the table straight away at a time that is absolutely advantageous for Russia."
Concerns about Anti-Ukraine Figures in Trump's Circle
🎦 50:18-53:26⏩
Jonathan expresses concern about the presence of anti-Ukraine figures like Stephen Miller, Steve Bannon, Donald Trump Jr., and Marjorie Taylor Greene in Trump's circle, noting that their influence could undermine efforts to support Ukraine. He plays a clip of Stephen Miller reciting Kremlin talking points, advocating for Ukrainian neutrality as a condition for peace. Jonathan criticizes this stance, arguing that it would grant Russia significant concessions while undermining Ukraine's sovereignty and security. He contrasts this with the views of Representative Michael McCaul, who acknowledges the influence of Russian propaganda on the Republican base and advocates for continued support for Ukraine.
- "Trump is appointing only those who only those only wake up in the morning to give Putin joy."
- "I think Russian propaganda has made its way into the United States, unfortunately, and it's affected a good chunk of my party's base."
Russian Troll Activity and the Partisan Divide on Ukraine
🎦 53:26-58:26⏩
Jonathan discusses the phenomenon of Russian troll farms using fake American personas to spread disinformation on social media. He highlights a comment from Jane Keefe describing a typical troll profile, often posing as a "kickboxing mum" while promoting pro-Russia narratives. He cites examples of troll accounts spreading Kremlin talking points and praising Trump's appointment of Stephen Miller. Jonathan expresses sadness that Ukraine has become a partisan issue in the US, attributing it to the politicization of Zelensky, Burisma, and Hunter Biden's laptop. He criticizes the selective "war hawk" label applied to pro-Ukraine individuals while ignoring similar hawkishness towards other countries.
- "Russian troll farms pretending to be Americans are loving the appointment of actual Nazis to White House positions"
Ukraine's Potential Concessions to Gain Trump's Support
🎦 58:26-01:05:04⏩
Jonathan reports on potential concessions Ukraine might be willing to make to secure Trump's support, including deploying Ukrainian troops to Europe to replace US forces and sharing Ukrainian natural resources with the US. He expresses dismay that Ukraine might be forced to make such concessions to appease Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy. He then highlights a TASS article claiming that Russia helped Trump win the election and expects a quid pro quo. He reads an excerpt from the article suggesting that Trump will prioritize fulfilling obligations to the forces that brought him to power, potentially at the expense of his campaign promises. Jonathan concludes by acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding Trump's Ukraine policy, recognizing the possibility of a positive outcome if Putin overplays his hand and pushes Trump towards supporting Ukraine.
- "Ukraine is ready to share resources and replace some U.S. troops in Europe post-war to gain Trump's support."
- "Putin's spy chief Nikolai Patrushev says Russia helped Trump win the presidential election and makes a veiled threat that Trump must now deliver the agreed upon quid pro quo"
Mick Ryan's Analysis of Potential Peace Plans
🎦 01:05:04-01:08:51⏩
Jonathan shares Mick Ryan's analysis of potential peace plans for Ukraine. Ryan examines several possibilities, including:
- Freezing the conflict: Ryan argues that this would be a strategic and moral failure, leaving many Ukrainians under Russian occupation and rewarding Russia for its aggression.
- Buffer zone: Ryan compares this to the Korean DMZ but notes that the proposed Ukrainian buffer zone would be significantly larger and more challenging to enforce. He questions the willingness of other nations to contribute troops to a peacekeeping force given the high risks involved.
Jonathan expresses agreement with Ryan's assessment, particularly regarding the moral implications of freezing the conflict. He also notes that the proposed peacekeeping force would likely be composed of European troops, aligning with Trump's desire to withdraw US forces from Europe. He concludes by showcasing a mural depicting Trump and Putin in an embrace, highlighting the widespread concern about Trump's pro-Russia leanings.
- "In the past few days speculation about potential Ukraine solution from the incoming Trump administration has accelerated."
- "...any freezing of the conflict that currently hold territory a strategic failure and a moral failure by Western political leaders. I totally agree with that but I don't think Trump would care."
Wrap up
🎦 01:08:51-01:09:02⏩
Jonathan summarizes his analysis, emphasizing the uncertainties surrounding Trump's future Ukraine policy. He reiterates his concerns about the influence of anti-Ukraine figures in Trump's circle and the potential for a transactional approach that prioritizes appeasement over principled support. He acknowledges the potential for a positive outcome if Putin's actions push Trump towards greater support for Ukraine but acknowledges that this outcome is far from certain. He ends the video by thanking viewers for their attention and promising to continue providing updates.
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