Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"If Russia wants to go to the tables to do a deal, that's because they know they'll get the best deal out of that scenario."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:10⏩
Jonathan wishes everyone a Merry Christmas and reminds viewers that he will be hosting a live stream with Jonathan Fink from Silicon Curtain later that day at 2pm.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian Losses
🎦 01:10-02:13⏩
The Ukrainian General Staff figures report the following Russian losses for the previous day:
- 800 personnel
- 4 tanks
- 17 armoured personnel vehicles
- 28 artillery systems
- 27 fuel tanks
- 6 pieces of special equipment
Analysis of Russian Equipment Losses
🎦 02:13-06:33⏩
Jonathan analyses video footage and OSINT from Andrew Perpetua showing destroyed Russian and Ukrainian equipment. Jonathan observes that a large amount of the Russian equipment destroyed was in the Crinky area, possibly as a result of FPV drone attacks. Jonathan remarks that "When you get those montage videos, suddenly you've got another 20 vehicles to add to lists like this." Jonathan is confident that the figures from the Ukrainian General Staff are accurate and that there is plenty of evidence to support this. Jonathan notes that the Ukrainians have lost some high value equipment - 3 Leopard 2a5 tanks and a Polish "Crab" self-propelled gun and electronic warfare system. Jonathan analyses footage from WarTranslated of Russian vehicles and personnel advancing on Ukrainian positions. A mine roller is being used and a large number of vehicles can be seen. Jonathan believes that this is a missed opportunity for the Ukrainians as they could have taken out a large amount of equipment ("at least a dozen") but doesn't know the reasons for this. Jonathan notes that a large amount of Russian equipment seen in the video footage is civilian.
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Moscow Shopping Centre Fire
🎦 10:02-10:23⏩
A shopping centre fire in Moscow.
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Ukrainian Air Defences
🎦 10:23-11:12⏩
Ukrainian air defences have shot down 14 out of 15 Shahed drones. Jonathan speculates about why Russia are using Shahed drones and not missiles - perhaps they are waiting for the F-16s to arrive, or to exhaust Ukrainian air defence systems.
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Kherson Oblast
🎦 11:15-13:50⏩
- Russian forces have struck critical infrastructure and a medical facility in Kherson Oblast.
- Jonathan states that Russia has history of deliberately targeting medical facilities and did so in Syria after being provided with coordinates by organisations such as the Red Cross and Medicin Sans Frontiers.
- Following the loss of three SU-34 fighter jets over the Dnipro River Delta, Jonathan reports that there has been a reduction in the number of Russian airstrikes in the Kherson Oblast region. Quoting Tendar, Jonathan states that "The destruction of three Russian Su-34s yesterday brought the Russian air campaign in Kherson to a complete halt."
- Jonathan believes that this highlights the effectiveness of Western weapons systems and their positive impact for Ukrainian defence.
Ilovaisk Oil Depot Attack
🎦 13:50-15:13⏩
Jonathan reports that the Ilovaisk Oil Storage facility - a key logistics hub - has been hit by the Ukrainians. Jonathan notes that Ilovaisk has been the target of a number of attacks, some of which have destroyed long cargo trains full of fuel carriages.
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Explosions in Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia and Sevastopol
🎦 15:13-15:26⏩
Explosions have been reported in Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia and Sevastopol, Crimea.
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Cyber Attack on "Crimea Wind" Telegram Channel
🎦 15:26-15:48⏩
Jonathan reports that pro-Ukrainian Telegram channel "Crimea Wind", which reports on explosions and events in Crimea, has been the target of a cyber attack by Russian hackers.
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Untrained Russian Troops Being Sent to Front Line
🎦 15:48-19:12⏩
Video footage shows Russian soldiers complaining that they are being sent to the front line with no training. Jonathan states that this supports his theory that whilst Russia is able to deploy a large number of reserve troops, they are often newly mobilised and receive very little training. The result, as Jonathan puts it, is that Russia is essentially sending troops to the front line with a gun and their best wishes: "go and stand in those trenches, good luck, you're going to defend against the Ukrainians." Jonathan believes that this tactic has, to a large extent, been successful, albeit at huge cost ("at huge cost to them") and that this is why Russia has been able to hold the front line.
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Crinky Update - Troop Numbers and Casualties
🎦 19:12-24:34⏩
- Jonathan provides an update from a Russian source about the situation at Crinky, reporting that Russia has increased troop numbers in the area from 64,000 to over 74,000 in just one month.
- According to the same source, the number of armoured vehicles has been increased from 750 to 950.
- Artillery in the region has been reduced from 900 to 550, with Russian complaints of a lack of counter battery fire.
- Despite these troop increases, Jonathan notes that Russia has not had the desired results, with only marginal gains in the region and heavy losses.
- Jonathan highlights the success of the Ukrainian defence in the area, which has inflicted disproportionately high casualties and equipment losses on the invading Russian force: "300 Spartans hold the bridgehead".
- Jonathan criticises the New York Times for their recent article which focused on the experiences of Ukrainian troops fighting in Crinky, arguing that their experiences should be considered within the wider context of the conflict and the strategic importance of holding the bridgehead, even if some soldiers perceive the mission to be suicidal.
- Jonathan believes that the NYT has presented an incomplete picture by not considering the opinions of senior officers who have a greater understanding of the overall situation.
Wall Street Journal Article About Prigozhin Assassination
🎦 20:07-24:23⏩
Jonathan provides an update on the assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin, summarising a recent article published in the Wall Street Journal which identified Nikolai Patrushev, former spy and close confidant of Vladimir Putin, as being behind the Wagner leader's death. The article claims that Patrushev had been advising Putin to distance himself from Prigozhin since 2022, but that it was only after Prigozhin directly challenged Putin over a lack of equipment and ammunition that Patrushev was able to convince the Russian leader to take action. The Wall Street Journal article claims that Prigozhin had "become dangerous with no respect for the Kremlin's authority." After falling out of favour with Putin, Prigozhin was killed when a bomb was planted on his private jet.
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Alexei Navalny
🎦 31:42-32:20⏩
Jonathan reports that US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, has expressed concern about the whereabouts of jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who has now been missing for three weeks. Jonathan sarcastically asks his pro-Kremlin viewers: "You know, are you the good guys? Are you defending this?".
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Putin's Proposed Ceasefire
🎦 32:20-34:38⏩
- Jonathan discusses reports that Putin may be open to a ceasefire, arguing that this should be approached with caution as it would likely result in Russia retaining illegally annexed Ukrainian territory. Jonathan says that if he was Ukraine, he would not negotiate with Putin as: "Russia are actually although it might look different when you look at the pins on the map moving like incrementally in Russia's favor over the last couple of weeks but if you look at the whole scheme of things and where Russia are now and where Ukraine are now and where Ukraine are going to be given F-16s and if we actually gave them the weapons that they're asking for and that they need...You saw what happened with the Patriot air defence system taking out three Su-34s. That's enough to tell you we give them the right stuff, Ukraine will absolutely hammer Russian forces. They will take out key equipment and depots."
- Jonathan believes that Russia is in a weaker position than it appears and that Ukraine should wait for a more favourable opportunity to negotiate.
Wrap Up
🎦 34:38-34:45⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching, reminds them to like, subscribe and share the video and to check out his upcoming live stream with Jonathan Fink.
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