Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"What I really, really worry about is that we have already heard how in 2018, how Trump preferred Putin over his own intelligence agencies, that he sees Putin as a strong man. He's never said anything negative about Putin. So when he picks up the phone and speaks to Putin, if I was to pick up the phone and speak to Putin, I'd be like, yeah, you're a bastard."
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:36⏩
*Jonathan welcomes the team to ATP Geopolitics for a Ukraine War News Update, part 1 for the 9th of February 2025. *He apologises for being late as he is unwell and unable to do his usual walk. *Jonathan celebrates England's victory over France in a match yesterday.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Russian losses according to Ukrainian General Staff
🎦 00:36-01:08⏩
*Jonathan presents the Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses from the previous day, with the usual caveats mentioned in the description. *Personnel losses are high at 1,460. *Equipment losses include:
- 11 tanks (slightly above daily average)
- 20 Armoured Fighting Vehicles (AFVs) (daily average)
- 24 artillery systems (slightly above daily average)
- 127 vehicles and fuel tanks.
Russian irreversible losses in Cortesia Region in January 2025
🎦 01:08-02:05⏩
*According to a spokesman for the Cortesia Regional State Administration, Russia suffered over 7,000 irreversible losses in January alone. *This number exceeds the 6,000 officially declared losses in Chechnya, and this is without even storming the city. *This is considered good news for Ukraine, indicating a slowing down of Russian attacks in the region. *Claims suggest the intensity of Russian attacks has decreased, possibly due to troop and equipment shortages. *Ukrainian forces have been under pressure in the Prokrosk direction.
Return to top⤴️
Reduced intensity of Russian assaults near Prokrosk
🎦 02:05-02:59⏩
*Georgi Revishevili reports on an update regarding the Prokrosk direction, citing Oleksii Herman, chief of the electronic warfare unit of the 111th Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. *The intensity of Russian assaults has significantly decreased due to heavy enemy losses and difficulties with replenishment. *Infrastructure and logistics in the area have been destroyed. *A three-kilometre grey zone exists between Ukrainian and Russian positions. *Modern technology, including drones, allows for instant detection and elimination of enemy movements in this zone before they reach Ukrainian positions.
Return to top⤴️
Prokrosk as a Ukrainian Fortress
🎦 02:59-03:28⏩
*Prokrosk has become a fortress, following the pattern of Bakhmut, Chasiv Yar and New York. *The front line before Prokrosk and Myrna Hrad is fully stabilised. *Russian attempts to bypass Prokrosk from the flanks are unlikely to succeed. *The outcome depends on the arrival of Ukrainian reinforcements, ammunition, and personnel to cover medical losses.
Return to top⤴️
Demoralisation and disorganisation of Russian forces near Prokrosk
🎦 03:28-03:49⏩
*Russian forces are described as disorganised and demoralised. *Interrogating prisoners reveals a consistent narrative of demoralisation and a lack of will to fight. *Only occasionally do some "reckless" soldiers appear. *Ukrainian forces are focused on spotting and eliminating these soldiers quickly.
Return to top⤴️
Varying effectiveness of Russian regiments and leadership issues
🎦 03:49-04:14⏩
*The effectiveness of Russian army regiments varies depending on leadership. *Some units are pushed forward relentlessly by harsh commanders due to fear of retreat, conditions in the rear, and rigid orders.
Return to top⤴️
New commander in Courtsier OSG and potential changes
🎦 04:14-04:42⏩
*Michailo Trapatti's appointment as commander of the Courtsier OSG (Operational Strategic Group) is discussed. *It is estimated that it will take him at least 1.5 months to assess the situation, including brigade strengths and weaknesses, available resources, and what can be provided. *He needs to determine whether to pursue an offensive or defensive mission, as directed by commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi. *Jonathan stresses the importance of soldiers on the front lines and their commanders, highlighting morale, psychological work, and soldier's spirit as key factors, rather than relying on "miracle generals".
Return to top⤴️
Russian losses in Prokrosk and equipment struggles
🎦 04:42-05:00⏩
*The Prokrosk area has been very difficult for Russian forces, resulting in significant losses. *They are struggling to maintain momentum and replace these losses.
Return to top⤴️
Azov Brigade eliminates Russian suicide mission in civilian cars
🎦 05:00-05:15⏩
*The 12th Special Operations Brigade Azov destroyed a Russian unit on a "suicide mission" using civilian cars. *Initially, the cars were hit, and then remaining infantry were eliminated with FPV drones as they scattered in the fields.
Return to top⤴️
47th Brigade repels Russian infantry assault with North Korean troops
🎦 05:15-05:37⏩
*The 47th Brigade and allied units repelled a large Russian infantry assault, which included North Korean troops. *Unlike previous armoured attacks, this assault relied on waves of infantry for over 16 hours. *At least a company of Russian forces was wiped out.
Return to top⤴️
Evidence suggests Russian equipment struggles
🎦 05:37-05:47⏩
*Based on the evidence of civilian vehicles being used for assaults and the infantry-heavy attacks, Jonathan concludes that Russia is likely struggling with equipment shortages.
Return to top⤴️
Questioning Russia's AFV reserves
🎦 05:47-06:31⏩
*Jakub Janowski raises the question of how to reconcile the apparent Russian equipment shortages with the assumption that Russia still has a large number of AFVs in deep storage. *Even harsh analyses previously suggested Russia had equipment reserves until around September, but current events suggest shortages are already evident in some front-line areas.
Return to top⤴️
Oryx analyst questions Russia's use of civilian vehicles in assaults
🎦 06:31-07:03⏩
*Jakub Janowski from Oryx questions the "insane use of civilian vehicles for assault in high intensity conventional war," considering Russia's supposed AFV reserves and production capabilities.
Return to top⤴️
Special Kherson Cat highlights routine use of civilian vehicles by Russian forces
🎦 07:03-07:27⏩
*Special Kherson Cat notes that using columns of civilian vehicles for attacks, once considered unbelievable, has become routine and no longer surprises anyone.
Return to top⤴️
High losses of Russian vehicles and fuel tanks
🎦 07:27-07:45⏩
*The high number of reported Russian vehicle and fuel tank losses (127) further supports the idea that Russia is struggling with combat asset equipment.
Return to top⤴️
Difficulty in assessing Ukrainian losses due to OPSEC
🎦 07:45-07:56⏩
*Jonathan explains the difficulty in getting an accurate picture of Ukrainian losses due to their strict operational security (OPSEC) and lack of publicly released statistics compared to the Russian side.
Return to top⤴️
Russian equipment losses remain high throughout the war
🎦 07:56-08:10⏩
*Despite the lack of Ukrainian data, it is evident that Russia has been losing massive amounts of equipment since the beginning of the war.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Russian vehicle and fuel tank losses using General Staff and Andrew Perpetua data
🎦 08:10-09:19⏩
*Jonathan refers to statistics from the Ukrainian General Staff, supported by Andrew Perpetua's analysis and to some degree Oryx, to show the trend of Russian equipment losses. *He highlights the steep gradient in the graph of vehicle and fuel tank losses, indicating increasing losses. *He compares current numbers to those from a couple of years ago, showing a significant difference and increasing loss rate.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Russian Armoured Personnel Vehicle (APV) losses
🎦 09:19-09:51⏩
*In contrast to vehicle and fuel tank losses, the trend for APV losses is downwards, indicated by a shallower gradient. *The steepest gradient for APV losses was during the Ukrainian counter-offensive and Russian attacks in Avdiivka, when large convoys of vehicles were being destroyed. *The current lower APV losses suggest that Russia may not have as many of these vehicles available now.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Russian tank losses
🎦 09:51-10:07⏩
*The trend for Russian tank losses is similar to APVs, with a dip and a slight increase in recent weeks, but not reaching the high levels seen previously when up to 55 tanks were claimed lost in a single day.
Return to top⤴️
Caveats on General Staff statistics but indicative trends
🎦 10:07-10:21⏩
*Jonathan reiterates the caveats regarding Ukrainian General Staff statistics but argues that even if they are somewhat inaccurate, the trends are still indicative of real changes in Russian equipment losses. *Even taking a percentage off the stats still shows the overall trend.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Russian artillery losses
🎦 10:21-10:41⏩
*Artillery losses show a huge drop recently, with a recent increase again, but Jonathan suggests vehicle and tank losses are more telling indicators in this context.
Return to top⤴️
Introduction of Russian "Turtle" vehicles
🎦 10:41-11:17⏩
*Jonathan introduces the topic of Russian "Turtle" vehicles, which are modified tanks and troop-carrying AFVs with Mad Max-style adaptations (extra armour). *These fall into the categories of troop-carrying AFVs and sometimes tanks.
Return to top⤴️
Reasons for Russian "Turtle" vehicle use and effectiveness
🎦 11:17-11:35⏩
*Possible reasons for using "Turtle" vehicles are discussed:
- Difficulty in repairing tanks, leading to using damaged tanks as APCs.
- Desire to avoid losing vehicles for extended repair times, so using them as glorified APCs instead of sending them for turret repairs.
- Tanks are not as effective in current warfare, so repurposed as APCs.
Destruction of Russian "Turtle" vehicles by Ukrainian forces
🎦 11:35-12:06⏩
*Special Kherson Cat refers to these vehicles as "Turtles". *Ukrainian State Border Guard Service destroyed two "Turtle" tanks, two infantry fighting vehicles, two APCs, and one armoured recovery vehicle. *Drones with thermite are effectively used to burn through the armour of disabled "Turtle" vehicles.
Return to top⤴️
Drone thermite attacks on Russian "Turtle" vehicles
🎦 12:06-12:34⏩
*Footage shows a drone landing on a "Turtle" vehicle and releasing thermite in situ, burning through the top armour. *This demonstrates different methods of neutralising these vehicles.
Return to top⤴️
Accuracy of Ukrainian drone pilots
🎦 12:34-12:40⏩
*The video footage highlights the accuracy of Ukrainian drone pilots in targeting these vehicles.
Return to top⤴️
Effectiveness of anti-drone nets and cage armour
🎦 12:40-12:58⏩
*While anti-drone nets and cage armour can be useful, drone pilots are adapting and learning to get under, around, and find weak spots on vehicles. *It's described as a "cat and mouse game" of evolving countermeasures.
Return to top⤴️
Destruction of Russian Estrella 10 air defence system by FPV drones
🎦 12:58-13:09⏩
*A Russian Estrella 10 short-range air defence system was destroyed by a couple of FPV drones. *This is considered another significant piece of equipment taken out.
Return to top⤴️
Questioning Russian air defence coverage and Ukrainian air force risk-taking
🎦 13:09-13:21⏩
*Jonathan questions the current state of Russian air defence coverage. *He wonders if Ukrainians can now afford to take more risks by bringing their airframes closer to the contact line, potentially exploiting weaknesses in Russian air defence.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Russian anti-aircraft system losses
🎦 13:21-14:20⏩
*Referring back to Dell's stats for Russian anti-aircraft system losses, Jonathan notes a period of consistent losses followed by a downward trend. *During the Ukrainian counter-offensive in May 2023, Ukrainians prioritised targeting Russian air defence and artillery. *The recent downward trend suggests fewer Russian air defence systems are being taken out, possibly indicating fewer available to target.
Return to top⤴️
Theory of Ukrainian attrition of Russian air defence systems
🎦 14:20-14:45⏩
*Jonathan's theory is that the reduced frequency of Ukrainian strikes on Russian air defence systems is due to successful Ukrainian attrition, meaning there are simply fewer systems left to target.
Return to top⤴️
Potential for increased Ukrainian air force activity
🎦 14:45-14:51⏩
*If Ukrainian forces have successfully attrited Russian air defence systems, Jonathan speculates whether this might lead to the Ukrainian Air Force becoming more active and taking more risks in using their aircraft.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian airstrike on Russian underground bunker using large bombs
🎦 14:51-15:27⏩
*Mentioning a previous military aid video, Jonathan discusses a Ukrainian airstrike on a Russian underground bunker of the 35th Russian Brigade in Salyutov. *The strike reportedly eliminated the entire command of the 35th Brigade. *It was carried out using 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) bombs, a significant development. *This may be the first publicly known use of such large bombs by Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Use of JDAM-ER guided glide bombs by Ukrainian aviation
🎦 15:27-15:39⏩
*American-provided JDAM-ER (Joint Direct Attack Munition - Extended Range) guided glide bombs (1,000-pound) are also being actively used by Ukrainian aviation. *A video was released showing a Ukrainian Su-27 airstrike using these bombs.
Return to top⤴️
Russian confirmation and initial misattribution of bunker strike
🎦 15:39-16:00⏩
*The airstrike on the 35th Brigade's bunker was first reported by the Russians themselves, who initially assumed it was carried out with HIMARS. *However, the use of large bombs is considered a more substantial attack than a HIMARS strike.
Implications of Ukrainian air force activity and guided bomb usage
🎦 16:00-16:15⏩
*Jonathan links the successful attrition of Russian air defence systems with the increasing use of guided glide bombs by the Ukrainian Air Force. *He suggests a correlation between reduced Russian air defence capabilities and increased Ukrainian air activity, particularly the use of guided bombs.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian forces shoot down Russian Su-25 attack aircraft
🎦 16:15-16:36⏩
*Rumours of downed Russian fighter jets are confirmed with visual evidence. *A Russian Su-25 attack aircraft was shot down by Ukrainian forces near Turetsk using an Igla MANPADS (Man-Portable Air Defence System).
Return to top⤴️
Attempted rescue of Su-25 pilot and drone attack on Mi-8 helicopter
🎦 16:36-17:03⏩
*A Russian Mi-8 helicopter was sent to rescue the pilot of the downed Su-25. *The Mi-8 was then attacked by first-person view (FPV) drones. *While drones have previously damaged helicopters, in this instance, the Mi-8 was damaged but managed to return to base, not shot down.
Return to top⤴️
Details of Su-25 shootdown and Mi-8 damage
🎦 17:03-17:24⏩
*Reports confirm the Su-25 was shot down by a MANPADS. *The pilot reportedly ejected. *FPV drones prevented the Mi-8 helicopter from evacuating the pilot, damaging the helicopter in the process, forcing it to return for repairs.
Return to top⤴️
FPV drone attack on rescue helicopter
🎦 17:24-17:33⏩
*Video footage shows an FPV drone attempting to attack the Mi-8 helicopter during the rescue attempt. *Jonathan comments on the dangerous nature of such rescue missions, especially in the current drone-heavy warfare environment.
Return to top⤴️
Drone threat near contact line
🎦 17:33-17:41⏩
*The incident highlights the pervasive threat of drones, particularly near the contact line.
Return to top⤴️
Drone attacks on damaged helicopter on the ground
🎦 17:41-17:57⏩
*Drones continued to attack the damaged Mi-8 helicopter even after it landed. *Multiple drones approached, but it is unclear if electronic warfare systems on the helicopter were effective in preventing further damage. *The claim is that the helicopter "limped back to base".
Return to top⤴️
Russian net tunnel to protect against FPV drones
🎦 17:57-18:27⏩
*Due to heavy losses from FPV drones in the Donetsk area (near Chezivyar), Russia has created a two-kilometre net tunnel in a high-risk section of the front line. *This tunnel protects the road from Chasiv Yar to Bakhmut, a vital supply route.
Return to top⤴️
Russian adaptation to drone warfare
🎦 18:27-18:37⏩
*This net tunnel is seen as an example of Russian adaptation to drone warfare, described as a "cat and mouse game" and "needs must". *It is likened to a "chicken wire tunnel".
Return to top⤴️
Potential countermeasures to Russian net tunnel
🎦 18:37-18:47⏩
*Jonathan suggests that thermite drones could be used to destroy the net tunnel by dropping thermite along its two-kilometre length.
Return to top⤴️
Effectiveness of drone warfare and Russian adaptations
🎦 18:47-19:25⏩
*The Russian net tunnel is seen as evidence of the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare in taking out Russian equipment. *It also demonstrates Russian efforts to adapt to this threat, which should not be underestimated. If it reduces drone effectiveness, it is a positive development for Russia.
Return to top⤴️
Details of assassination of Russian missile brigade commander
19:25-20:26⏩*Further details are provided about the assassination of a Russian commander, referenced in a previous video. *The commander is identified as Negaiko, battery commander of the 112th Guards Missile Brigade. *He was responsible for the missile strike on Hroza, Kharkiv, which killed 59 people at a funeral wake. *Negaiko was killed in the Ivanovo region by a bomb placed in a parcel. *Ukrainian intelligence (Main Intelligence Directorate - MAD) claimed responsibility, confirming Nogaiko's death on the 3rd of February as a result of an explosion, stating he was involved in the Hroza attack.
Return to top⤴️
Massive Russian drone strike on Ukraine and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia
🎦 20:26-21:57⏩
*A massive Russian drone strike involving 150 drones was launched into Ukrainian airspace overnight, one of the largest drone attacks to date. *Only seven drones reportedly got past Ukrainian defences. *Ukraine claims to have shot down 70 drones and used electronic warfare or decoys against 74. *Nikopol was heavily shelled. *Russia claims to have stopped 35 Ukrainian drones overnight, mostly in the Kursk region, with other regions including Crimea also targeted. *St. Petersburg airport was closed.
Return to top⤴️
Emerging details of Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory
🎦 21:57-22:25⏩
*Details of successful Ukrainian strikes from the previous night are still emerging. *Past Ukrainian strikes, such as a Storm Shadow strike on January 26th, targeting a Russian underground drone bunker in the Orel region, took time for details to surface. *Satellite images later confirmed the aftermath of the January 26th strike.
Return to top⤴️
Storm Shadow strike on Russian drone storage bunker in Orel region
🎦 22:25-22:49⏩
*A Storm Shadow missile strike on January 26th hit an underground bunker storing Russian attack drones in the Orel region. *Satellite images confirm the strike's impact. *Claims suggest over 200 Shahed drones were destroyed in this strike, and satellite imagery supports this.
Return to top⤴️
Russia's multiple drone storage facilities and potential for revisit strikes
🎦 22:49-23:08⏩
*Despite the successful strike, Russia appears to have multiple drone storage facilities in the Orel region. *This may necessitate further Ukrainian strikes on these facilities in the future.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian strike on Albuschneft refinery
🎦 23:08-23:28⏩
*The Albuschneft refinery was struck on February 5th (four days prior). *Satellite images from Svoboda report show a completely burned tank and damage to another tank at the refinery.
Return to top⤴️
Significance of Albuschneft refinery strike
🎦 23:28-23:48⏩
*One tank at the Albuschneft refinery reportedly contained 60,000 tonnes of diesel fuel. *The refinery is a key mini-refinery supplying fuel to the Russian army. *A book system (likely a bookkeeping or accounting system) was also hit in Zaporizhzhia on the same night. *Evidence now supports the claims of this strike from four days ago.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian counter-offensive near Prokrosk
🎦 23:48-24:30⏩
*Russian channels report a Ukrainian counter-offensive pushing Russian troops out of Kotlina, near Prokrosk. *Attacks are also ongoing on Pishcheni, involving mechanised units, infantry, FPV drones, and 155mm artillery. *Jonathan plans to do a mapping update.
Return to top⤴️
Location of counter-offensive and Andrew Perpetua's analysis
🎦 24:30-24:53⏩
*The location of Kotlina is clarified as being near Prokrosk. *Andrew Perpetua previously mentioned three Ukrainian counter-attacks. *One is in Kamiansk, where Ukrainians are pushing south with success. *Another is near Kursk. *The third is in the Pyschani area (near Kotlina).
Return to top⤴️
Clarification of Pyschani sector and Ukrainian pushback near Prokrosk
🎦 24:53-25:31⏩
*It is clarified that the Pyschani sector being discussed is in the south, near Prokrosk, and not the Pyschani sector further north. *While Russians are having success in other areas, Ukrainians are pushing back in the Pyschani area near Prokrosk and may have retaken Kotlina. *Russian sources are confirming the Ukrainian counter-offensive and recapture of Kotlina.
Return to top⤴️
Russian recruitment drive and potential collapse of forces
🎦 25:31-26:32⏩
*Chris O'Wickey reports on a Russian recruitment drive, suggesting the Russian command is using threats to persuade mobilised servicemen to sign contracts. *The aim is to increase staffing levels in formations and military units with contract servicemen. *Speculation is that Russia wants to ensure soldiers stay in the army after demobilisation to prevent a collapse of combat capabilities. *Neo-Nazi mercenary group Rusich has also warned of potential collapse.
Return to top⤴️
Analysis of Russian contract soldier recruitment and financial incentives
🎦 26:32-27:03⏩
*A philologist's analysis suggests that contracting mobilised servicemen is unlikely to maintain total troop numbers, as they are already part of the active contingent. *The analysis suggests potential "carrot and stick" mechanisms are being used, including inflating contract soldier figures and statistical manipulation. *The aim is to present a positive picture of army replenishment and contrast it with Ukrainian recruitment challenges.
Return to top⤴️
Claims of Russian commanders receiving bonuses for capturing settlements
🎦 27:03-27:35⏩
*Claims suggest Russian commanders are receiving bonuses for capturing towns and villages. *This incentivises them to claim captures even when not fully achieved, leading to "meat assaults" to actually take villages after premature claims are made.
Return to top⤴️
Financial motivations for contract soldier recruitment and reduced social tension
🎦 27:35-28:35⏩
*Contract soldiers are cheaper to maintain than mobilised soldiers in terms of allowances. *Contracting mobilised soldiers formally reduces social tension, as it creates the appearance of voluntary service. *However, contracts without expiration dates are seen as another form of "enslavement," and coercion is likely involved, despite official justifications.
Return to top⤴️
Russian concerns about demobilisation and potential Ukrainian offensive
🎦 28:35-28:45⏩
*The Russian recruitment drive and contract soldier emphasis indicate concerns about demobilisation and the potential collapse of Russian armed forces if a ceasefire were declared. *This collapse could then embolden Ukraine to break a ceasefire and launch an offensive.
Return to top⤴️
Complaints from Russian 810th Marine Brigade about conditions
🎦 28:45-29:22⏩
*Russian soldiers from the 810th Severstopol Marine Brigade, heavily affected in Kursk, are complaining about terrible conditions. *They describe living "like homeless," not having washed in almost a month, and living "like rats". *They report being without rotation for a month and constantly under fire, including ATGM attacks near their trenches. *This is presented as first-hand evidence of poor Russian conditions.
Return to top⤴️
North Korean troop deployment to Kursk front line
🎦 29:22-29:43⏩
*Jonathan expresses deep worry about North Korean soldiers being sent to the Kursk front line. *This deployment allows Russia to sustain the war longer and avoid redeploying forces from areas like Prokrosk, enabling continued Russian offensives there. *He believes underplaying the impact of North Korean involvement is unwise.
Return to top⤴️
North Korean economic aid to Russia and UN resolution violations
🎦 29:43-30:33⏩
*North Korea is also providing economic aid to Russia, sending thousands of workers to Russia, violating UN resolutions. *These workers are filling labour shortages at Russian construction sites. *Pyongyang and Moscow are suspected of using student visas to bypass the UN ban. *Jonathan questions the UN's effectiveness and if these violations are being investigated.
Return to top⤴️
North Korean drone factory for Russia and Kim Jong-un's continued support
🎦 30:33-31:22⏩
*North Korea and Russia have agreed for North Korea to build a drone factory to supply Russia, previously reported by Jonathan. *Despite reported significant losses of North Korean troops in the Kursk region, Kim Jong-un has vowed to continue supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine. *North Korea has reportedly provided approximately 11,000 soldiers and missile technology. *Kim Jong-un has publicly stated he will continue supporting Russia "for as long as it takes".
Return to top⤴️
Trump's admission of contact with Putin and concerns about peace negotiations
🎦 31:22-31:51⏩
*Trump has admitted to having spoken to Putin already. *Jonathan transitions to discussing peace negotiations.
Return to top⤴️
Jonathan's perspective on mediating peace negotiations and moral stance
🎦 31:51-32:27⏩
*Jonathan states his personal view that Putin is a "murderous bastard," dictator, and evil, while Ukraine are "the good guys". *If he were to mediate peace negotiations, he would strongly advocate for a just peace for Ukraine, morally and politically siding with Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Worry about Trump's pro-Putin stance and potential for biased negotiations
🎦 32:27-32:48⏩
*Jonathan expresses concern that Trump, who has historically favoured Putin over US intelligence agencies and views Putin as a "strong man," may not advocate for a just peace for Ukraine. *He believes Trump's approach to Putin would be fundamentally different from his own, who would approach Putin with open hostility.
Return to top⤴️
Trump's focus on stopping the war immediately and lack of concern for justice for Ukraine
🎦 32:48-33:30⏩
*While Trump's positive relationship with Putin might seem advantageous for negotiations, Jonathan worries that Trump does not prioritise justice for Ukraine. *Trump's rhetoric focuses on stopping the war "immediately" and mentioning casualties and destruction, but not on achieving a just outcome for Ukraine.
Return to top⤴️
Concerns about Trump being manipulated by Putin to Ukraine's detriment
🎦 33:30-34:03⏩
*Jonathan fears that Trump's lack of concern for Ukraine and positive view of Putin will lead to him being manipulated by Putin in any negotiations. *This manipulation would not be beneficial to Ukraine's interests.
Return to top⤴️
US sanctions against ICC prosecutor Karim Khan
🎦 34:03-34:36⏩
*International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Karim Khan, who issued the arrest warrant for Putin, has been named on a US (Trump administration) non-public economic and travel sanction list, according to Reuters. *The ICC is being targeted by the US for its stance on Netanyahu, suggesting retribution against the court.
Return to top⤴️
Negative implications of US sanctions on ICC for Ukraine and Putin
🎦 34:36-34:56⏩
*Jonathan sees the US sanctions against the ICC prosecutor as retribution against those who have been effectively challenging Putin. *He argues this is detrimental to Ukraine and beneficial to Putin, who is likely "laughing all the way". *He describes it as "Christmas come late for Putin" and "insane".
Return to top⤴️
Chinese fuel tanker runs aground in Russia
🎦 34:56-35:18⏩
*A municipal emergency has been declared in Novelsky district of Sakhalin, a Russian region, due to a Chinese fuel tanker running aground. *Initial reports mention coal, but there is uncertainty. If it is oil, it poses a significant problem.
Return to top⤴️
Koala oil tanker sinking in Ust-Luga seaport
🎦 35:18-35:31⏩
*The Koala oil tanker is sinking in Ust-Luga seaport, near St. Petersburg.
Return to top⤴️
Details of Koala tanker incident and potential sabotage
🎦 35:31-36:01⏩
*Russian Telegram channels report the Koala tanker is carrying 130,000 tons of mazut (heavy fuel oil). *The vessel is registered in Antigua and Barbuda (not Pobudia as misheard). *It was reportedly ready to leave port when three explosions occurred in the engine room. *Potential sabotage is considered a possibility.
Return to top⤴️
Environmental risks and Russian fuel trade issues
🎦 36:01-36:25⏩
*Authorities claim no oil leak risk from the Koala tanker and have cordoned off the ship. *The Chinese tanker aground in Sakhalin was carrying diesel, mazut, and coal. *Jonathan concludes that Russia's fuel trade is an "environmental time bomb" and poses significant environmental and logistical challenges for Russia.
Return to top⤴️
Damage to Russian underwater communication cables in Baltic Sea
🎦 36:25-36:49⏩
*Russian Rostelecom reported damage to its underwater cable in the Baltic Sea due to "external influence". *Two other Russian cables in the Gulf of Finland are also under repair. *This suggests potential sabotage on Russian underwater infrastructure.
Return to top⤴️
Speculation on sabotage of Russian underwater cables
🎦 36:49-37:06⏩
*Ward Translated suggests "the game can be played on both sides," implying potential Ukrainian or allied sabotage of Russian cables. *Jonathan wonders if sabotage has occurred and, if so, by whom.
Return to top⤴️
Prince Harry and Invictus Games support for Ukraine
🎦 37:06-37:47⏩
*Jonathan shifts to a positive note, praising Prince Harry and the Invictus Games. *He expresses admiration for Prince Harry, considering him the most likeable member of the UK royal family. *He highlights the Invictus Games as a fantastic initiative for injured and disabled armed forces personnel. *Prince Harry gave a speech at the Games and showed support for the Ukrainian team.
Return to top⤴️
Positive message of support for Ukraine at Invictus Games
🎦 37:47-38:58⏩
*Footage from the Invictus Games shows Prince Harry interacting with the Ukrainian team. *Ukraine has a large team at the Games, reflecting the increased number of disabled people due to the war. *Jonathan views Prince Harry's support as a positive indication of his "moral fibre".
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 38:58-39:03⏩
*Jonathan concludes on a positive note, thanking viewers and promising to speak to them soon.
Return to top⤴️
