Ukraine War Update NEWS: 3x AP's Equipment Loss Lists, Backlog Clearing
Table of Contents 📖
"They're showing that they're in a bit of a desperate state if they're using such a, or if there is such a prevalence of these much older howitzers."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:27⏩
Jonathan introduces the video as an "appendix" video to go through Andrew Perpetua's loss lists that he's not had time to go through. He warns viewers that "it's not for everyone" as it will be statistical analysis of the data.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Overall Losses - 30th January 2025
🎦 00:27-01:05⏩
Jonathan explains that he will be looking at the losses for 3 days (27th, 28th and 30th January 2025). He starts by looking at 30th January 2025 - 192 Russian personnel were lost (high number). He compares this to the other two days which were 109 and 148. He observes that equipment losses were "pretty much parity" - maybe slightly more Russian losses. Interestingly, combat asset losses were marginally higher for the Ukrainians.
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Ukrainian Losses - 30th January 2025
🎦 01:05-02:42⏩
Ukrainian Losses:
- Command and control vehicle
- ANTPQ-50 radar
- Artillery: M777 Howitzers (2 damaged), M119, M101
- Drones: Lancet, FVV, Vandal (Vandal used a lot by the Russians)
- 1 Tank
- 4 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (2 destroyed)
- CV9040 (Swedish - damaged - Jonathan notes this is a capable vehicle and a couple have been taken out recently)
- Captured M113
- 3 x VABs (French - obsolete, being phased out by France and sent to Ukraine - could be part of the 155th Brigade that is now active around Prokrosk)
- BVS-10 (Swedish small-tracked articulated vehicle, a couple taken out recently)
- COSAC Senators, Oshkosh MRAPs (all destroyed or abandoned)
- Infantry Mobility Vehicles (unknown types, 1 Eurovantac)
Jonathan observes that the Ukrainians are "losing quite a bit of stuff there" including the command vehicle.
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Russian Losses - 30th January 2025
🎦 02:42-03:34⏩
Russian Losses
- Lots of civilian vehicles (as per usual)
- ATVs, quads, golf buggies
- T-90M (drone dropped bomb on abandoned tank - Jonathan notes that he reported earlier that Oryx had no visually confirmed T-90 losses for January)
- 5 Tanks (almost all destroyed/abandoned)
- APCs and IFVs (all destroyed/abandoned) - BMP1s, 2s, and 3s, MTLBs
- Tiger Ms
Jonathan notes that the Russians are losing an awful lot of civilian vehicles.
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Popular Culture - Ukraine storyline in "The Agency"
🎦 03:34-05:28⏩
Jonathan digresses, talking about the TV series "The Agency" (Paramount - remake of French series "Le Bureau" ("Le Bureau de la Gende") which he recommends). He recently watched the last episode and it features a Ukrainian storyline. He notes how important it is to get pro-Ukraine narratives into popular culture. He recently asked an academic in an interview in Lviv (hosted by Jonathan Fink) how to rise to the challenge of presenting a narrative that is pro-Ukraine. Getting Ukraine out there in public information spaces is important and one of these is popular culture. This can be achieved through pro-Ukraine storylines as well as social media and high culture/academia. He highlights how well the Agency has done in showing how interconnected everything is (Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, Sahara, Sudan, Iran). Jonathan digresses further, recalling how the TV series included a scene featuring a BTR-60 and "Tigra Ms" and how he'd pronounce "Tigra" differently.
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Overall Losses - 28th January 2025
🎦 05:28-05:49⏩
Jonathan moves on to look at the losses for 28th January. 109 Russian personnel were lost. Total losses: Russia 1.5 to Ukraine 1. Combat asset losses were about the same for both sides.
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Ukrainian Losses - 28th January 2025
🎦 05:49-07:45⏩
Ukrainian Losses:
- ANTPQ-48 Radar
- Boat
- 2 x Artillery
- 2 x Tanks
- CV9040 (abandoned - hit by Vandal drone)
- Soviet-era equipment (and a YPR-765) (all abandoned)
- Conkers AFV (1974 - old, destroyed in Feb 2022) - Jonathan looked this up. It's a tank hunter vehicle, fixed launcher, 5 x wire-guided 9M113 "Conkers" (AT-5 Spandrel) missiles, later upgraded to 9M111 Faggot.
- BMP-2 (part of BRDM-2 variant)
- APCs (Stryker, M1, M3, Spartans (UK - FV103), Senators.
Jonathan notes how much Western-provided equipment has been taken out by the Russians and that most of it is irretrievably lost, calling it a "challenge" for the Ukrainians.
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Russian Losses - 28th January 2025
🎦 07:45-09:30⏩
Russian Losses:
- ATVs
- Trucks
- Civilian Vehicles
- Desert Cross 1000-3 (golf buggies), motorcycles, pickups, gliders
- Engineering Vehicle
- Artillery
- 4 x Tanks
Jonathan notes the high number of civilian vehicles and ATVs. He wonders if Russia is still receiving shipments of Desert Cross 1000-3s from China ("that would be a shame"). He observes that most of the equipment lost after the artillery has been irretrievably lost. He ponders whether the fact we are seeing parity in losses these days is because the Russians have lost so much of the traditional combat equipment (tanks etc) and are now using civilian vehicles instead. He illustrates this by pointing to the colours on the AP loss charts. Most of the Russian losses are brown (civilian vehicles) whereas there is no brown on the Ukrainian chart. The Russians are losing two, sometimes three times as many civilian vehicles as the Ukrainians. They are being used to ferry troops to the contact line and even in unarmored convoys to attack the Ukrainians. Jonathan suspects that if you take into account the civilian vehicles being used for combat, the Russians are probably still losing two or three times the amount of equipment - it just looks different.
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Overall Losses - 27th January 2025
🎦 09:30-10:24⏩
Overall Losses:
- 148 Russian personnel lost
- 3:1 loss ratio (Russia: Ukraine)
- High Russian artillery losses (suggests a montage video will be out soon from somebody like Madhya) which probably accounts for the 2.5:1 loss ratio for vehicles.
- Russia still losing more civilian vehicles and ATVs.
Ukrainian Losses - 27th January 2025
🎦 10:24-11:12⏩
Ukrainian Losses:
- Front-end loader with backhoe (engineering vehicle) (Germany has been sending these, Constantine doing fundraisers, lots of focus on excavators and engineering vehicles)
- 2 x S-22 Bogdanas (self-propelled howitzer - good production rate now)
- Tanks
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles
- Snatch Land Rover (destroyed - Jonathan hopes it wasn't one that the UK provided)
- 2 x M113s
- Max Pro
- Kozak
- Bushmaster
Jonathan observes that Ukraine has lost a range of equipment (mostly irretrievably lost) and it will need replacing but "nothing too serious to worry about".
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Russian Losses - 27th January 2025
🎦 11:12-13:44⏩
Russian Losses:
- Civilian vehicles: motorcycles, SUVs, Landers, pickups, loafs, vans (including "Scooby Doo" vans)
- ATVs, quads, golf buggies.
- Artillery: lots taken out by Nemesis drones (Jonathan describes this as a robust, large quadcopter, heavy bomber drone). Losses include: 3 x M46s, D20s, D30s (old howitzers being used - "desperate state")
- 4 x Tanks (including T-80 BBMs or BVs and T-72s)
- Infantry Fighting Vehicles (BMP2s and 3s, very few BMP1s these days)
Jonathan observes that most Russian equipment losses (after artillery) have been irretrievably lost. He speculates whether the artillery that has been damaged has been so badly damaged (barrels etc) that they are not easily repairable and the Russians may not have the spare parts or capability to fix them. It may be quicker to just bring another one out of storage. The question is, how many more do they have?
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Observations
🎦 13:44-14:25⏩
Jonathan summarises the observations from the last 3 days' data:
- Russians using a lot more civilian vehicles as combat assets
- Traditional combat asset losses are looking more even compared to before but the artillery losses are considerably higher on the Russian side (probably due to footage from a montage video)
Wrap up
🎦 14:25-14:28⏩
Jonathan thanks viewers for watching and asks them to like, subscribe and share.
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