Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"I don't think the Russians should pat themselves on the back for an incredibly successful combined arms manoeuvre campaign."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:29⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a Ukraine War Frontline Update for 24th February 2024, thanking JR for the mapping. He briefly explains the map legend and mentions the update will be concise and skip the ISW analysis due to time constraints.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Northeastern Front Relatively Stable
🎦 00:29-00:58⏩
Jonathan notes the northeastern front has been relatively stable compared to other areas, with only minor changes around Sienkiewka and Lyman.
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Bakhmut: Russian Gains South of Ivanovska
🎦 00:58-02:05⏩
Russians have made substantial gains south of Ivanovska, according to sources like SuryatMapsPro and RussianMapper. Combat continues in eastern Ivanovska, with Russians seizing control of the forest belt south of the town and north of Klishchivka. These are significant gains, as Ivanovska is a key settlement preventing Russian advance towards Chasiv Yar. Jonathan emphasizes the importance of this buffer zone, like Bohdanivka, for Ukraine to hold back the Russian advance and prevent further westward pushes.
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Avdiivka: Continued Russian Success
🎦 02:05-05:27⏩
Jonathan reports continued Russian success in the Avdiivka area, the most active front line sector. Russians have taken control of Stepova and made further gains, according to Syriac Maps and Andrew Perpetua. Jonathan believes a westward push across this sector is likely, putting pressure on Berdychi, Semenivka, Orlivka, and Tonenke. He notes the capture of Sivirny poses a challenge for Ukraine, while control of Lastochkirna is contested but likely fallen to Russian forces. Syriac Maps confirms the capture of Lastochkirna and Stepova to the north, forcing a Ukrainian retreat. OSINTdefender corroborates the Russian presence in Lastochkirna and Severny. Jonathan points out the strategic importance of holding this line, as a Russian advance would threaten Kostyantynivka and the road vital for Ukrainian supplies and HIMARS attacks on Mariupol. He expresses concern that the Ukrainians' focus on offensive operations may have come at the expense of fortifying defensive lines, potentially putting them in a precarious position against the advancing Russians.
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Ukrainian Counterattack West of Solodka
🎦 06:20-07:54⏩
Positive news emerges from Solodka, where Ukrainian forces have counterattacked and recaptured positions previously lost to Russian forces, reclaiming a significant amount of farmland. This success helps alleviate pressure on Novomykolaivka, which is facing challenges as Pobjeda has fallen to Russian control, and the area north of Kostyantynivka is under pressure. Jonathan believes Ukraine aims to prevent the encirclement of Kostyantynivka and secure the road crucial for supplying their troops and facilitating HIMARS strikes on Mariupol.
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Robotyne: Ukrainian Withdrawal Likely
🎦 07:54-10:22⏩
The situation in Robotyne appears to be deteriorating for Ukraine, with Syriac Maps reporting significant Ukrainian losses. Russians have pushed Ukrainian forces back and are potentially fighting within the town center. Syriac Maps claims Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses in Robotyne, capturing over 40% of the town. They also report a Ukrainian withdrawal from the salient due to pressure from the east. Jonathan believes the Ukrainians may be conducting an operational withdrawal from the entire salient. He expresses surprise at how long Ukraine has held onto this area, suggesting it might be a case of the sunk cost fallacy, where they've invested too much to relinquish it easily. However, he acknowledges the strategic value of the salient in drawing Russian focus away from Orikhiv. Regarding the Krinky area, there are no significant changes, although footage from Ukrainian drone operations suggests ongoing attrition of Russian forces. Jonathan doubts Ukraine will be able to hold Krinky for much longer.
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Jonathan's Analysis and Viewer Questions
🎦 10:22-14:37⏩
Jonathan analyses the situation, prompting viewers to share their perspectives on the Ukrainian and Russian positions. He challenges a viewer's comment about the Russian assault on Avdiivka being an example of competent combined arms manoeuvre. He argues it was more a case of Russia overwhelming Ukrainian forces who were critically short of artillery ammunition. Jonathan believes the lack of ammunition, combined with the element of surprise and the intensity of the Russian assault, led to the fall of Avdiivka. He contends that with sufficient artillery and earlier deployment of air defence systems like Patriot, the outcome might have been different. He attributes the Ukrainian losses to a lack of resources rather than Russian tactical prowess.
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Wrap Up
🎦 14:37-14:41⏩
Jonathan encourages viewers to share their thoughts, asking them to like, subscribe, and share the video. He expresses gratitude for their support and signs off.
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