Ukraine War News Update: Hits & Losses
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This summary has been produced automatically by an AI Large Language Model (LLM) without any human intervention. Whilst every effort has been made to prompt the LLM to produce accurate output, there may be inconsistencies, inaccuracies or hallucinations!
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:32⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to the ATP Geopolitics video, noting he's in a hotel room with limited access to his usual sources.
- He hopes the update will still be of interest and use.
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report on Russian Losses
🎦 00:32-01:39⏩
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian losses, with personnel falling below 1,000 again (990 lost). This has happened a few times recently.
- Jonathan suggests this might indicate Russia is not pushing as hard, possibly preparing for a large offensive from the north, south, or east.
- Other reported losses were also low: two tanks, one troop-carrying AFV, 17 artillery systems (first time below daily average in a long time), and 64 vehicles and fuel tanks.
- Overall, it was a relatively low day for Russian losses.
Russian Aerial Activity Against Ukraine
🎦 01:39-03:27⏩
- After three nights of intense aerial activity, Russia launched significantly fewer attacks: 60 drones and no missiles.
- Jonathan discusses the rumour that Russia may have stopped using ballistic missiles, stating his mantra: "you would if you could, you aren't, so you can't," questioning why they wouldn't use them if available.
- Out of 60 drones, 35 were conventionally taken out, and 8 by electronic warfare, totalling 43 intercepted. This left 17 drones that got through, which Jonathan notes is a high proportion (over a quarter) of the total launched, indicating a less effective interception rate for Ukraine despite fewer drones.
- There was little battle damage assessment available regarding hits on Ukrainian targets.
Ukrainian Drone Activity Against Russia
🎦 03:27-05:33⏩
- There were rumours of up to 400 Ukrainian drones in Russian airspace overnight, though this was largely unconfirmed.
- The Murom instrument-making plant in Russia's Vladimir region, known for producing video surveillance units, was hit, but the extent of damage is unconfirmed.
- A partisan group reported successfully disabling a relay cabinet on a railway track in the Tula region.
- The "Carpet plan" (shutting down airports due to drone activity) was implemented at airports in Ivanovo, Kaluga, Nizhny Novgorod, Tambov, Yaroslavl, and Saratov.
- Russia claimed to have shot down 99 drones in seven regions, a figure far lower than the rumoured 400. Jonathan concludes that Ukraine was at least active with drones going into Russia.
Lifting of Western Weapons Restrictions on Ukraine
🎦 05:33-06:40⏩
- Friedrich Mörs clarified that the lifting of restrictions on Western weapons (American, German, French, British) for use against military targets on Russian territory was a decision made months ago, not a new development.
- Jonathan notes that while it's significant that no restrictions apply, the primary concern is not the lack of restrictions but the sheer number of missiles and weapons available to Ukraine.
Ukrainian POW Deaths in Russian Captivity
🎦 06:41-07:04⏩
- At least 206 Ukrainian prisoners of war have reportedly died in Russian captivity since the war began.
- Autopsies revealed deaths due to torture and medical neglect in brutal conditions.
- Evidence points to systemic abuse aimed at covering up war crimes, as reported by Null Reports via Associated Press.
UK Military Aid & Frozen Russian Assets
🎦 07:05-07:47⏩
- The UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) and Ukraine's Ministry for Strategic Industries signed an agreement regarding the use of excess profits from frozen Russian assets.
- Under the ERA initiative, Ukraine is set to receive billions in 2025-2026.
- These funds will be used for the procurement of foreign defence products, repair and maintenance of military equipment, and the implementation of joint projects.
US Sanctions on Russia
🎦 07:47-08:38⏩
- Donald Trump is rumoured to be considering sanctions against Russia, which Jonathan views with scepticism given previous similar rumours that amounted to nothing.
- Jonathan expresses frustration, stating that sanctions should have been implemented already. He believes the US is pulling back from enforcing existing sanctions, effectively achieving the same outcome as lifting them.
G7 & EU Efforts to Lower Russian Oil Price Cap
🎦 08:38-09:42⏩
- The G7 is set to consider lowering the Russian oil price cap below $60 a barrel, possibly to $45, as part of the EU's 18th sanctions package.
- However, this initiative requires US support, as the EU has previously struggled to achieve this unilaterally.
- The proposal will be discussed at the G7 finance meeting in Canada.
Collapse of US-EU Sanctions Coordination
🎦 09:42-12:14⏩
- An internal German Foreign Ministry report indicates that the US and EU are no longer coordinating efforts to counter Russia's sanctions evasion.
- This signifies a collapse of transatlantic cooperation and a loss of G7 momentum on this front.
- Jonathan highlights that 80% of sanctions circumvention cases are linked to China through Hong Kong or China itself.
- He describes this as "an absolute shocker," indicating that the US is not interested in maintaining pressure on Russia, and argues that enforcing existing sanctions is more crucial than new ones.
Russia Convenes UN Security Council Meeting
🎦 12:14-13:01⏩
- Russia convened a UN Security Council meeting, bizarrely claiming that Europe is obstructing peace in Ukraine.
- Jonathan vehemently condemns this, calling it an "insult to rationality" and to those who have died, pointing out that the invading Russian army and Putin are the true obstructors of peace.
- Deputy Envoy Dmitry Polyansky accused European actions of hindering a settlement, despite Russia continuing large-scale strikes on Ukrainian cities.
Russian Drone Attack Tactics Change
🎦 13:01-14:23⏩
- Yuri Ikhnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, reported that Russia has changed its drone attack tactics.
- Occupiers are now launching drones at altitudes of over two kilometres, making them harder to shoot down.
- Drone strikes are often carried out in groups against a single object, and up to 40% of the drones used are false targets or decoys designed to overload air defence systems.
- Jonathan questions whether these unarmed decoys are included in the number of "drones that get through" Ukrainian air defences, seeking clarity on how the figures are reported.
- He mentions that Khmelnytskyi (specifically the Starokostiantyniv Air Base) was heavily hit two nights prior by six ballistic missiles, which properly overwhelmed their air defences.
Wrap up
🎦 14:24-14:58⏩
- Jonathan concludes the update, thanking viewers and BenniePie for his dedicated work in putting the videos together, despite the long hours.
- He mentions he will likely be back with another video later that night.
🤖❓ AI Debrief (post task) - anything the AI didn't understand
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