Ukraine War Update NEWS: Military Aid & Geopolitical News
Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:14⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to the second part of his Ukraine War update for 1st August 2024, focusing on military aid and geopolitical news.
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Ukraine Drone Statistics
🎦 00:15-01:34⏩
Jonathan highlights Forbes' report that Ukraine launched more long-range drones toward Russia in July than vice-versa: 520 Ukrainian attacks versus 426 Russian Shaheed drone launches. This data indicates that Ukraine might be outpacing Russia in attack drone production, which aligns with earlier suggestions of matching construction numbers. He expresses hope for this trend to continue. He observes that Ukrainian attacks are impacting Russian oil infrastructure, military airbases and energy grids and believes these attacks will significantly impact Russia.
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US F-16 Delays
🎦 01:54-03:05⏩
Jonathan discusses criticism from US Senator Jim Risch (R-Idaho) about the delayed delivery of F-16s to Ukraine, arguing that the Biden administration should have supplied them two years prior. Risch expresses support for Ukraine receiving the planes now, but regrets the delay.
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Romanian Analyst on F-16 Numbers and Roles
🎦 03:05-06:14⏩
Jonathan cites Romanian analyst Radu Hosu's concerns regarding the limited number of F-16s being provided to Ukraine, highlighting that a minimum of 100 are needed for essential missions such as air defense suppression, air interdiction and anti-air operations. However, only 95 have been pledged, some of which are for spare parts. With the final deliveries slated for 2027, Hosu believes their impact will be minimal. He anticipates initial deployment for defensive missions due to the limited availability of AMRAAM interceptor missiles. Additionally, he notes that Russia has had ample time to adapt to their arrival. Jonathan expresses reservations about the F-16s' effectiveness in air interdiction due to potential range limitations compared to Russian aircraft, acknowledging that missile effectiveness extends beyond range, encompassing terminal phase capabilities.
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Zelensky on Brigade Equipment Shortages
🎦 06:15-07:14⏩
Jonathan discusses Zelensky's statement about having 14 prepared brigades, but only three being adequately equipped. Zelensky expresses concerns about equipment shortages impacting their ability to counter Russia effectively, drawing parallels to the delayed counter-offensive in the previous year. Jonathan reiterates the need for timely equipment supplies.
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German Military Aid: NASAMS for Ukraine
🎦 07:15-07:42⏩
Jonathan reports that Germany is contemplating purchasing Norwegian NASAMS air defense systems for Ukraine, especially as the production of this new system is in its early stages. There is potential for German companies to invest in expanding NASAMS production, but this remains a long-term prospect.
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Russian FPV Drone Production Claims: Fact or Fiction?
🎦 07:42-15:00⏩
Jonathan delves into a thread by Sam Bendit (@SamBendet) regarding Russian FPV drone production claims. He highlights inconsistencies in statements by Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu regarding the daily production of FPV drones, leading to confusion and subsequent editing of official statements. While initial reports suggested an output of 4,000 drones per day, later clarifications pointed toward this figure representing the number deployed at the front lines. Bendit and other analysts cast doubt on the high production figures, suggesting that they may be exaggerated or potentially include defective units. They emphasise the importance of a 'built-in system' to ensure effective drone deployment, citing Ukraine's superior drone development and utilization. Bendit suggests that Russia is attempting to emulate Ukrainian successes in this domain.
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Japan Increases AMRAAM Production: Russian Threats
🎦 15:00-16:13⏩
Jonathan mentions a report by EurAsian Times about Russia's threat to Japan over potential Patriot missile transfers to Ukraine. He highlights the increased production of AMRAAM air-to-air missiles by Japan, partly due to their co-production agreement with the US. Russia has warned of unspecified countermeasures if Japan supplies these missiles, despite Japan's increased production being driven by economic factors and existing agreements. Jonathan expresses uncertainty about how Russia would verify such a transfer.
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US-Russia Prisoner Exchange
🎦 16:13-19:13⏩
Jonathan discusses the prisoner exchange between Russia and the US, where Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan were released alongside dissident Vladimir Kara-Murza. In return, the US and its allies freed a number of Russian prisoners, primarily FSB agents and military personnel. Jonathan notes the political implications of the swap and anticipates further details emerging.
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Trump's False Prediction on Gershkovich's Release
🎦 19:13-19:26⏩
Jonathan revisits a statement made by Donald Trump earlier in the year, where he predicted that Evan Gershkovich's release would be secured "almost immediately" after the election, attributing it to his supposed influence over Vladimir Putin. He contrasts this with the reality of the situation, highlighting the inaccuracy of Trump's claims.
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Global Protests and Russian Support for Autocrats
🎦 19:26-23:27⏩
Jonathan highlights Akash Maniam's (@akash_maniam) tweet drawing attention to Russia's history of propping up autocratic regimes facing popular opposition, citing examples such as Venezuela, Syria, Georgia, and Belarus. Maniam urges against dismissing such protests as US-orchestrated coups, emphasising the genuine desire for freedom and self-determination within these nations. He points to widespread support for Ukraine from these countries as evidence of their understanding of Russian hegemonic ambitions. Jonathan echoes these sentiments, emphasizing the need for coherent thinking in recognizing the interconnected nature of these conflicts and the importance of supporting those fighting for democratic values. He criticises what he perceives as incoherent views, particularly among some US Republicans who oppose Maduro's regime in Venezuela while simultaneously supporting Putin's government. Jonathan advocates for a multifaceted approach to countering Russian influence, which includes:
- Supporting global movements for democracy
- Weakening Putin's global standing
- Providing unwavering military assistance to Ukraine
He reiterates the link between these actions and the importance of preventing future Russian aggression. Jonathan cites an article about Wagner mercenaries allegedly present in Venezuela to support Maduro's regime, further illustrating Russia's global reach in propping up autocratic leaders.
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Russia Withdraws from Armenian Airport
🎦 23:27-24:13⏩
Jonathan reports on the complete withdrawal of Russian soldiers from Zvartnots International Airport in Yerevan, Armenia, ending their presence there.
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Baltic and EU Sanctions: Closing Loopholes and Seizures
🎦 24:13-25:06⏩
Jonathan provides a roundup of recent sanctions-related developments:
- Estonia is implementing comprehensive customs controls on its border with Russia to prevent the circumvention of sanctions.
- Italian authorities, acting on Ukraine's request, have seized assets belonging to Russian oligarch Alexei Fedorovichev, including a Tuscan castle, amounting to a total value of $44 million.
- The EU has expressed support for Ukraine's decision to halt the transit of Lukoil oil through its territory to Slovakia and Hungary, indicating no immediate threat to these countries.
YouTube Blocked in Russia
🎦 25:06-26:02⏩
Jonathan reports that YouTube has been blocked in Russia, highlighting the escalating isolation of the Russian populace and the government's tightening grip on information control. He predicts a surge in Russian troll activity despite these restrictions.
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Zelensky: No Territorial Concessions Without Public Mandate
🎦 26:02-27:01⏩
Jonathan concludes by emphasizing Zelensky's stance against ceding Ukrainian territory as part of any peace settlement without the consent of the Ukrainian people. He stresses that Zelensky prioritizes the will of his citizens over any external pressure to negotiate with Russia.
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Wrap Up
🎦 26:57-27:01⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers, asks them to like, subscribe and share the video and signs off.
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"They know what Russian hegemony means and it's universally terrible. Instead, support their fight and understand that Russia is a common thread underlying this oppression."
