Ukraine War Update NEWS: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News
Table of Contents 📖
"Sleep well, he will defend you today on one leg, while you on two can't get your arse in gear to solve problems in the rear."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-01:58⏩
Jonathan starts by apologising for the late video, explaining he needed to catch up on sleep after a long week. He mentions watching Greg Terry's live stream, which showed the honoring of Pete Reed, an American medic who died in Bakhmut. He expresses gratitude for the donations he received to pass on to Project Constantine in Pete's memory and reminds viewers that direct donations are always preferable to avoid platform fees.
Return to top⤴️
🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Report of Russian Losses
🎦 01:58-07:15⏩
Jonathan delves into the Ukrainian General Staff's report on Russian losses from the previous day. The figures suggest a significant loss of personnel and equipment, including:
- 1,120 personnel
- 11 tanks
- 18 armoured personnel vehicles
- 66 artillery systems
- 76 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 6 pieces of special equipment
Jonathan acknowledges that while these figures should be taken with caution, the high number of artillery systems lost is notable and suggests that Ukrainian efforts to degrade Russian artillery capabilities are proving effective. He addresses the argument that Russia has deep stockpiles of artillery, pointing out that the quality of these reserves will likely deteriorate over time, impacting their effectiveness. Jonathan reads and responds to a comment from viewer 'Del', who highlighted the record high of 66 artillery systems lost and suggested that drones are now being used more effectively for counter-battery fire. Jonathan agrees, explaining how drones are being used not just for traditional counter-battery fire, but also for spotting and actively hunting down Russian artillery pieces. He then shows Del's data spreadsheet, which tracks Russian losses and averages over different time periods. The spreadsheet confirms the record high for artillery losses and highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian tactics.
Return to top⤴️
Anecdotal Reports of Russian Losses and Hospital Overcrowding
🎦 07:15-09:41⏩
Moving on from the Ukrainian General Staff report, Jonathan shares some anecdotal reports of Russian losses, emphasizing the importance of considering multiple sources when trying to understand the reality on the ground. He highlights:
- Reports indicating that 20 out of 55 soldiers from a Russian BTG in the Lipetsk area were killed.
- Video footage suggesting that hospitals in Belgorod are overwhelmed with wounded soldiers, forcing them to use schools as makeshift medical facilities.
Jonathan emphasizes the need to piece together information from various sources, including Ukrainian and Russian claims, as well as visual evidence, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the situation.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Mill Blogger Romanov's Candid Assessment of the War
🎦 09:41-15:19⏩
Jonathan discusses the insights provided by a Russian mill blogger named Romanov, known for his candid assessments of the war, which have previously landed him in trouble. He provides a summary of Romanov's observations:
- High activity of Ukrainian FPV drones.
- The intensity of Ukrainian cluster munition use has decreased compared to the Robotyne offensive.
- Ukrainian FPV drones are now flying further, up to 30km behind the front lines, thanks to the use of repeaters.
- The Russian goal of pushing the border by 15km to prevent Ukrainian shelling of Belgorod is proving impossible due to Ukrainian HIMARS and Patriot air defense systems.
- Ukrainian forces are redeploying some reserves from Zaporizhzhia to Kharkiv.
- Russian forces are anticipating a Ukrainian offensive in the Sumy direction.
- Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems, while effective against Ukrainian drones, have been targeted and destroyed due to their static positions.
- Kadyrovites are being deployed as barrier troops to prevent Russian soldiers from retreating but are reportedly ineffective.
- Approximately 7,000 former Wagner fighters are now in Belarus, potentially training Belarusian forces.
Propaganda and the Use of Viral Videos
🎦 15:19-17:10⏩
Jonathan discusses how both sides of the conflict use propaganda and manipulate viral videos to shape the narrative. He cites the example of a video showing a Ukrainian drone narrowly missing Russian soldiers carrying a wounded comrade on a stretcher, which the Russians later falsely claimed as their own. He explains that the Russians frequently appropriate Ukrainian footage, add their watermark, and present it as Russian successes.
Return to top⤴️
Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Targets
🎦 17:10-19:10⏩
Jonathan reports on a Russian strike using an Iskander-M ballistic missile, which successfully destroyed a Ukrainian S-300PS air defense system. He notes that the destruction of this vital air defense asset is a significant blow to Ukraine. Additionally, a Ukrainian drone strike targeted a Russian command post in Nova Kakhovka, destroying a communication station and power station but resulting in only two Russian casualties.
Return to top⤴️
Ukrainian Drone Strikes and Russian Responses
🎦 19:10-26:25⏩
Jonathan covers the latest drone attacks, highlighting that Ukraine shot down 24 out of 27 Russian kamikaze drones launched from Kursk and Crimea, with the remaining three drones' impact locations unknown. In a seemingly successful retaliatory strike, Ukraine targeted the Krasnodar region with drones, causing fires at a Lukoil depot and a Rosneft oil depot, and damaging a mobile phone tower. Notably, Russia remained silent about the Krasnodar attack, potentially due to having to redeploy air defense systems from the region to bolster defenses in Crimea. Jonathan speculates that the attack's success may be linked to Russia's need to redeploy assets, leaving areas vulnerable. He also mentions a separate incident in Stavropol, where Russia had to burn off gas after a suspected act of sabotage at an electrical substation, causing a power outage for the entire city.
Return to top⤴️
Treatment of Russian Soldiers
🎦 26:25-30:13⏩
Jonathan discusses a disturbing report from Russian military blogger Anastasia Kashevarova, highlighting the mistreatment of Russian soldiers. Despite protests from bloggers, injured soldiers are being sent back to the front lines. In one case, a group of 50 injured soldiers who recorded a video complaining about their treatment reportedly had their crutches confiscated and were threatened with being sent back to the front. One soldier, identified as Artem Sherapov, who spoke out in the video, was reportedly sent to Zaitseve, a notorious detention center in Luhansk known for its harsh conditions and alleged torture of soldiers who refuse to fight.
Return to top⤴️
Vladimir Kara-Murza's Deteriorating Health in Prison
🎦 30:13-32:15⏩
Jonathan highlights the plight of Vladimir Kara-Murza, a Russian opposition activist sentenced to 25 years in prison on what are widely considered to be trumped-up charges. Kara-Murza, who suffers from polyneuropathy due to two suspected poisonings by Russian special services, has been transferred to a hospital in Omsk following a sharp deterioration in his health. His lawyers have been denied access to him. This situation has drawn criticism from international figures such as Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, who condemns Putin's actions and highlights the repressive nature of the Russian regime.
Return to top⤴️
Blackouts in Russia and Restrictions on Internet Freedoms
🎦 32:15-35:31⏩
Jonathan points to growing issues within Russia, including blackouts in the Rostov region attributed to a lack of energy capacity. He then discusses Russia's ongoing crackdown on internet freedoms, including the removal of VPNs from app stores and demands for telecom operators to cease providing VoIP services. Jonathan argues that these measures are part of a broader strategy to limit access to information and control the narrative within Russia.
Return to top⤴️
Wrap up
🎦 35:31-35:54⏩
Jonathan concludes the video by reiterating his frustration with those who attempt to justify the war or downplay the severity of the situation in Russia. He encourages viewers to like, subscribe, and share the video, and thanks them for watching. He reiterates his apologies for the late upload.
Return to top⤴️
